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Roughly 90% of homeowners in Florida with mortgages have a rate below 6%, per Redfin data shared with Axios.

What's happening: Mortgage rates have swung between 6% and 7% in the U.S. over the last 10 months, up from January 2021's historic low of 2.65%.

That rate jump makes the total cost of buying a home more expensive for buyers that need financing.

Why it matters: Mortgage holders are experiencing the "golden handcuffs" phenomenon: They have a great rate now, but likely can't move without spending a lot more cash, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather tells Axios.

Since they're staying put and not selling, prospective buyers are left with few homes to choose from.

By the numbers: In Florida, only 10% of homeowners with mortgages had a rate higher than 6% as of late 2022.

More than 20% of homeowners with mortgages really lucked out and have a rate below 3%.

What's next: New construction, lower mortgage rates and cheaper home insurance would help restore balance to the market.

But Fairweather predicts that even with the increase of new builds in 2023, it'll take the U.S. a decade to repair its housing shortage.

"Golden handcuffs" lock up Florida's housing supply

More than 20% of Florida homeowners with mortgages have a rate below 3%.

Illustration of a handcuff on a keychain in a lock

Real estate

Roughly 90% of homeowners in Florida with mortgages have a rate below 6%, per Redfin data shared with Axios.What&#x27;s happening: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Mortgage rates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" data-vars-content-id="4c35d223-58eb-45ed-a8da-9e02cfa627f3" data-vars-headline="&quot;Golden handcuffs&quot; lock up Florida&#x27;s housing supply" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank">Mortgage rates</a> have swung between 6% and 7% in the U.S. over the last 10 months, up from January 2021&#x27;s historic low of 2.65%.

Real Estate

Miami shows no signs of a market crash. Here's what experts say to expect instead.

Home sales prices could take a hit if mortgage rates were to continue surging, but that doesn't seem to be the case, forecasts Ines Hegedus-Garcia, executive VP of Avanti Way Realty.

"This sustained decline [in mortgage rates] will help revive homebuying and we should see a more robust market for home sales in 2023," she says. 

Fernando Arencibia Jr., CEO of Arenci Properties Realty, says demand should stay strong in 2023. "South Florida real estate is unique from other U.S. markets in that we continue to see high in-migration domestically and internationally," he says.    

If mortgage rates do increase later this year, the number of inbound movers and cash buyers should be enough to shield South Florida from crashing home prices.

Even if home prices continue to appreciate, Arencibia Jr. predicts conditions will be calmer for buyers. 

It's likely buyers will have more choices and have a little more negotiating power as the market balances out. 

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Miami real estate

Buyers could have more choices this year.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Miami shows no signs of a market crash. Here&#x27;s what experts say to expect instead.<h2 class="text-h6 !font-sans !font-normal !leading-[1.2em]">1. The market will hold strong. </h2>Home sales prices could take a hit if mortgage rates were to continue surging, but that doesn&#x27;t seem to be the case, forecasts Ines Hegedus-Garcia, executive VP of Avanti Way Realty.

Miami's housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the past two years, but prices have still been rising. 

Why it matters: Any relief is welcome by home seekers, especially as mortgage rates creep up.

Miami's median home sales price was $470,000 in January, up 8.05% from last year and up 3.3% from December.

The median number of days that homes sat on the market in January was 71, up eight days from the year prior.

Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have crept up 1.3% from one year ago.

The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.

Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the latest from the National Association of Realtors.

As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, which gives buyers a little more room to negotiate.

What’s next: Spring, which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices, is right around the corner.

If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.

Yes, but: Experts predict 2023 will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.

The bottom line: We're starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren't falling.

Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up

Miami&#x27;s housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the past two years, but prices have still been rising. Why it matters: Any relief is welcome by home seekers, especially as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mortgage rates creep up" data-vars-click-url="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" data-vars-content-id="d82fdc28-7036-40eb-b66a-ad1f338fe6b4" data-vars-headline="Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank">mortgage rates creep up</a>.By the numbers:<ul><li>Miami&#x27;s median home sales price was $470,000 in January, up 8.05% from last year and up 3.3% from December.</li><li>Inventory was up 10% from last year.</li><li>The median number of days that homes sat on the market in January was 71, up eight days from the year prior.</li></ul>Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have crept up 1.3% from one year ago.<ul><li>The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.</li><li>Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the latest from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="National Association of Realtors" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/30643558.120/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmFyLnJlYWx0b3IvbmV3c3Jvb20vZXhpc3RpbmctaG9tZS1zYWxlcy1kZXNjZW5kZWQtMC03LWluLWphbnVhcnk_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/616eeca36385576a2d226d3cB31ccb30f" data-vars-content-id="d82fdc28-7036-40eb-b66a-ad1f338fe6b4" data-vars-headline="Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/30643558.120/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmFyLnJlYWx0b3IvbmV3c3Jvb20vZXhpc3RpbmctaG9tZS1zYWxlcy1kZXNjZW5kZWQtMC03LWluLWphbnVhcnk_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/616eeca36385576a2d226d3cB31ccb30f" target="_blank">National Association of Realtors</a>.</li><li>As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, which gives buyers a little more room to negotiate.</li></ul>What’s next: Spring, which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices, is right around the corner.<ul><li>If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.</li><li>Yes, but: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Experts predict 2023" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/20/real-estate-predictions-2023" data-vars-content-id="d82fdc28-7036-40eb-b66a-ad1f338fe6b4" data-vars-headline="Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/20/real-estate-predictions-2023" target="_self">Experts predict 2023</a> will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.</li></ul>The bottom line: We&#x27;re starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren&#x27;t falling.

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Business

Data: RE/MAX; Note: Overall number includes 50 metro areas analyzed by RE/MAX; Table: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Home sales were down more than 37% year over year in the Miami metro area, per RE/MAX's February report.

Why it matters: In 2022, potential buyers were desperate for more inventory. Now, homes are hitting the market but people can't afford them.

What's happening: Rates for a 30-year loan were at 6.09% in early February, and shot up to 6.65% by the end of the month, per Freddie Mac.

By the numbers: Locally, there were just 13,167 homes on the market in February 2022, but the same month this year, there were 24,677 — an inventory jump of 87.4%.

The median sales price in February 2022 was $405,000. That figure rose to $435,000 — a 7.4% jump — last February.

Zoom out: Because there's less competition right now, buyers don't have to front as much cash as they did a year ago, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

Between the lines: Buyers who can afford these mortgage rates have more power.

They have more options than a year ago, they can take their time searching and they can make offers that aren't wildly above list price.

Yes, but: These rates make buying unaffordable for many.

What's next: Mortgage rates dropped nearly a quarter point this month, which means buyer activity will likely pick back up.

Miami home sales drop while prices rise

Homes are hitting the market but people can't afford them.

Housing

Home sales were down more than 37% year over year in the Miami metro area, per RE/MAX&#x27;s <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="February report" data-vars-click-url="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/remax-national-housing-report-for-february-2023-301774754.html" data-vars-content-id="e7260dd3-3b61-43eb-8bbc-6cf7a7e0e082" data-vars-headline="Miami home sales drop while prices rise" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/remax-national-housing-report-for-february-2023-301774754.html" target="_blank">February report</a>.Why it matters: In 2022, potential buyers were desperate for more inventory. Now, homes are hitting the market but people can&#x27;t afford them.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

"Golden handcuffs" lock up Florida's housing supply

Miami home sales drop while prices rise

Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Miami real estate