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Axios Miami Thought Bubble

Axios Miami

Miami shows no signs of a market crash. Here's what experts say to expect instead.

Home sales prices could take a hit if mortgage rates were to continue surging, but that doesn't seem to be the case, forecasts Ines Hegedus-Garcia, executive VP of Avanti Way Realty.

"This sustained decline [in mortgage rates] will help revive homebuying and we should see a more robust market for home sales in 2023," she says. 

Fernando Arencibia Jr., CEO of Arenci Properties Realty, says demand should stay strong in 2023. "South Florida real estate is unique from other U.S. markets in that we continue to see high in-migration domestically and internationally," he says.    

If mortgage rates do increase later this year, the number of inbound movers and cash buyers should be enough to shield South Florida from crashing home prices.

Even if home prices continue to appreciate, Arencibia Jr. predicts conditions will be calmer for buyers. 

It's likely buyers will have more choices and have a little more negotiating power as the market balances out. 

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Miami real estate

Buyers could have more choices this year.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Miami shows no signs of a market crash. Here&#x27;s what experts say to expect instead.<h5>1. The market will hold strong. </h5>Home sales prices could take a hit if mortgage rates were to continue surging, but that doesn&#x27;t seem to be the case, forecasts Ines Hegedus-Garcia, executive VP of Avanti Way Realty.

Real Estate

Miami's housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the past two years, but prices have still been rising. 

Why it matters: Any relief is welcome by home seekers, especially as mortgage rates creep up.

Miami's median home sales price was $470,000 in January, up 8.05% from last year and up 3.3% from December.

The median number of days that homes sat on the market in January was 71, up eight days from the year prior.

Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have crept up 1.3% from one year ago.

The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.

Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the latest from the National Association of Realtors.

As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, which gives buyers a little more room to negotiate.

What’s next: Spring, which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices, is right around the corner.

If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.

Yes, but: Experts predict 2023 will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.

The bottom line: We're starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren't falling.

Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up

Miami&#x27;s housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the past two years, but prices have still been rising. Why it matters: Any relief is welcome by home seekers, especially as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mortgage rates creep up" data-vars-click-url="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank">mortgage rates creep up</a>.By the numbers:<ul><li>Miami&#x27;s median home sales price was $470,000 in January, up 8.05% from last year and up 3.3% from December.</li><li>Inventory was up 10% from last year.</li><li>The median number of days that homes sat on the market in January was 71, up eight days from the year prior.</li></ul>Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have crept up 1.3% from one year ago.<ul><li>The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.</li><li>Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the latest from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="National Association of Realtors" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/30643558.120/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmFyLnJlYWx0b3IvbmV3c3Jvb20vZXhpc3RpbmctaG9tZS1zYWxlcy1kZXNjZW5kZWQtMC03LWluLWphbnVhcnk_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/616eeca36385576a2d226d3cB31ccb30f" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/30643558.120/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmFyLnJlYWx0b3IvbmV3c3Jvb20vZXhpc3RpbmctaG9tZS1zYWxlcy1kZXNjZW5kZWQtMC03LWluLWphbnVhcnk_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPXNlbmR0b19sb2NhbG5ld3NsZXR0ZXJ0ZXN0JnN0cmVhbT10b3A/616eeca36385576a2d226d3cB31ccb30f" target="_blank">National Association of Realtors</a>.</li><li>As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, which gives buyers a little more room to negotiate.</li></ul>What’s next: Spring, which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices, is right around the corner.<ul><li>If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.</li><li>Yes, but: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Experts predict 2023" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/20/real-estate-predictions-2023" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/20/real-estate-predictions-2023" target="_self">Experts predict 2023</a> will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.</li></ul>The bottom line: We&#x27;re starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren&#x27;t falling.

Brianna Crane

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Miami housing market moderates, but prices are still going up

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Miami real estate