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Axios Denver Deep Dive

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Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Axios Denver

Data: Point2Homes; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

Denver renters earned half the income needed to afford a starter home in October, according to an analysis by real estate website Point2Homes.

Researchers consider "starter homes" properties valued in the lower one-third of all available homes for sale.

Why it matters: Higher mortgage rates and housing costs are keeping homeownership out of reach from many first-time buyers.

By the numbers: Renters in Denver earned a household income of $53,420 on average, while the income needed to cover a mortgage was $105,983, according to the study.

In September, a typical Denver starter home cost $433,502, the study found, analyzing Zillow data.

Zoom out: Following October's interest rate hike, renter households in 15 of the 50 largest U.S. cities made less than half the income to buy one of the cheapest homes in town, per the analysis.

The big picture: Across the U.S., the share of first-time home buyers has shrunk to a record low, according to the National Association of Realtors. First-time buyers made up 26% of all buyers in 2022, down from 34% last year, the group found.

Go deeper: 3 reasons it's getting harder for renters to buy

Denver renters can't afford starter homes

Real estate

Denver renters earned half the income needed to afford a starter home in October, according to an<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" analysis" data-vars-click-url="https://www.point2homes.com/news/research/starter-homes-where-to-find-them-entry-level-house-myth.html" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.point2homes.com/news/research/starter-homes-where-to-find-them-entry-level-house-myth.html" target="_blank"> analysis</a> by real estate website Point2Homes.<ul><li>Researchers consider &quot;starter homes&quot; properties valued in the lower one-third of all available homes for sale.</li></ul>

Real Estate

News

Axios Denver, anchored by John Frank and Alayna Alvarez, is here to help readers get smarter, faster on the most consequential news and developments unfolding in their own backyard.

Buena Vista, the gateway to the Collegiate Peaks and the Arkansas River, is home to some of the most stunning views in Colorado.

Here's what to do, where to eat, drink and stay.

Enjoy a luxe escape at this boutique hotel overlooking the rushing rapids of a nearby whitewater park. Or book a stone cottage at sister property Surf Chateau.

Features: Mountain views, weddings and events, onsite restaurant and ballroom, located near Buena Vista Whitewater Park and downtown Buena Vista

Photo: Brandon Lopez, courtesy of Surf Hotel

lobby view of surf hotel with brick fireplace

Plan your next family vacation or relaxing getaway at this 70-acre resort perched 8,250 feet above sea level.

Features: Hot springs, spa treatments, fitness classes, bike rentals, ski or snow shoe rentals, onsite dining options

This newly built Airbnb boasts gorgeous mountain views and is tucked right off Main Street.

Features: Private upstairs unit with queen bed, family-friendly bunk bed and trundle bed, fully stocked kitchen, WiFi, free parking on premises

Come for fresh, healthy eats and a great outdoor patio.

Hours: Monday and Tuesday, Friday-Sunday 11am-9pm, (closed Wednesday and Thursday)

Gather in the backyard. Photo: House Rock Kitchen

Grab Colorado-grown burgers from this food truck parked behind the Roastery Cafe.

Hours: Wednesday-Sunday 11am-8pm from early May through October (closed Monday and Tuesday)

a row of towering burgers with lots of veggies

Stop by the Southmain location for great pizza post-hike or raft trip. 

Hours: Sunday, Tuesday-Thursday 11:30am-8pm, Friday and Saturday 11am-9pm (closed Monday)

This is a Colorado adventure capital with all the best fun. Hike a 14er or take a walk along the river and riverfront park. 

If you're craving an adrenaline rush, go rafting with River Runners. Trips start at $57+ for beginners and include all rafting gear.

Rafters on a commercial raft trip make their way down the Arkansas River on June 27, 2020 outside of Buena Vista, Colorado.

Rafters make their way down the Arkansas River. Photo: RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Take in live music at the hotel's picturesque Ivy Ballroom. Find an upcoming show.

Enjoy a show. Photo: Zach Mahone Photography, courtesy of Surf Hotel

Soak in bubbling, river rock pools open year-round. Adult day passes can be purchased onsite for $35 on weekdays and $40 on weekends.

A man reading a book at Mount Princeton Hot Springs Resort

Relax at Mount Princeton Hot Springs Resort. Photo: Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Where to eat, play and stay in Buena Vista, 2.5 hours from Denver

view of the mountains with buildings and river in the foreground

Stay at the Surf Hotel. Photo: Surf Hotel

Colorado

Buena Vista, the gateway to the Collegiate Peaks and the Arkansas River, is home to some of the most stunning views in Colorado.<ul><li>Here&#x27;s what to do, where to eat, drink and stay.</li></ul>

Things to Do

Data: Zillow; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Local real estate experts predict that 2023 will bring more balance to the metro Denver housing market. 

Nicole Rueth, senior vice president at mortgage lender The Rueth Team, expects the first quarter will see slower demand, fewer new listings and lower inventory.  

"Q2 will see the transition to lower rates, more demand and more new listings," Rueth tells Axios. 

"Q3 and Q4 will see a return to normalized fall trends as buyers take advantage of homes as they come on the market."

Home prices are expected to remain relatively flat in 2023, Zillow data shows.

As the market settles, so will the "record-breaking appreciation homeowners have been spoiled with," realtor Jeremy Kane at eXp Realty anticipates.

"This will feel like a pull-back or a loss in value, when really it is just normalizing and will provide opportunities for buyers to make more logical choices when making offers on homes," he tells Axios.

3. Lower mortgage rates will unleash pent-up demand

With Redfin and other forecasters predicting a slow decline in rates, milehimodern senior broker associate Lori Abbey expects increased excitement among buyers and sellers alike.

"This should cause a lot of buyers to get off the fence and to the closing table," Abbey tells Axios. "Homes will be a little bit more affordable for buyers than last spring and demand for listings will increase with these lower rates."

New construction will be key to offsetting Denver's already tight housing supply, milehimodern broker associate Rachel Gallegos tells Axios.

"With so many homeowners opting to stay put, we will see fewer move up buyers volunteering to sell and leave their low interest rate mortgages," Gallegos says.

Increased competition will come into play toward the middle of the year and beyond, Abbey, of milehimodern, expects.

"All in all, it will be an exciting year for sellers and buyers, both," she adds.

Denver's real estate market will settle in 2023, experts say

As the market settles, so will the "record-breaking appreciation homeowners have been spoiled with," realtor Jeremy Kane says.

Local real estate experts predict that 2023 will bring more balance to the metro Denver housing market. Here&#x27;s what they&#x27;re saying:

Business

Data: U.S. Census American Community Survey; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

The pandemic shaved a couple minutes off your drive to work.

What's happening: The average one-way commute in Denver was 2.1 minutes shorter in 2021 compared to 2019, per the latest U.S. Census data.

Why it matters: More people working from home and fewer commuting by car has reshaped the traditional back-and-forth.

Nearly one-third of workers in the Mile High City primarily worked from home in 2021, according to the data.

Between the lines: Traffic congestion is down about 27% across major U.S. cities' downtowns compared to pre-pandemic levels, reports Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick.

Nationwide, the average one-way trip to work was two minutes shorter than in 2019, per the Census data.

What we're watching: For those who do go back in, flexible work arrangements make it easier to avoid rush hour and cut back on some of the stress around commuting, Adam Kamins, a senior director at research firm Moody's Analytics, told Axios.

Go deeper: The number of people working remotely tripled during COVID

Denver commutes get a little bit shorter

Traffic

The pandemic shaved a couple minutes off your drive to work.What&#x27;s happening: The average one-way commute in Denver was 2.1 minutes shorter in 2021 compared to 2019, per the latest <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="U.S. Census data" data-vars-click-url="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/people-working-from-home.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&amp;stream=top#_ga=2.73988241.2035717673.1665499575-amp-nRoaB8glk6WrcNozOf8Dpw" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/people-working-from-home.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axiospm&amp;stream=top#_ga=2.73988241.2035717673.1665499575-amp-nRoaB8glk6WrcNozOf8Dpw" target="_blank">U.S. Census data</a>.

Signs of a slowing housing market persist in the Mile High City, according to the latest data from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.

Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Denver buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

Yes, but: Rising borrowing costs are causing buyers to reevaluate their purchasing power daily, local Realtors say.

What’s happening: “We’re starting to move into a balanced market,” Libby Levinson-Katz, chair of DMAR’s market trends committee, said. 

Current buyers have more homes to choose from, and competition has eased. But the leap in mortgage rates has priced some folks out of the market, Levinson-Katz said.

By the numbers: Inventory jumped 93.5% compared to this time last year, per the Denver Metro Association of Realtors’ market trends report for September.

Meanwhile, pending sales are down 27.9% year-over-year.

The median sales price rose 9.4% year-over-year, but it’s fallen in recent months.

In May, the median sales price was $615,000 and in September it was $580,000.

Sellers aren’t getting 100% of their asking price anymore. On average, homes sold for 98.9% of the list price in September 2022.

This time last year, homes were selling for 101.9% of the listing price.

Nearly 60% of Denver-area sellers dropped their asking prices in July.

Homes are sitting on the market longer, too. In September 2022, homes sold in 26 days on average, compared to 13 days in September 2021.

What’s next: The market is correcting — not crashing, Levinson-Katz said.

After the typically quiet holiday season, she expects to see prices flatten out and the days on market continue to increase.

Denver’s real estate market is finally calmer, but it's not cheaper

Signs of a slowing housing market persist, according to the latest data from the DMAR.

An illustration of a house being measured by a large hand.

Signs of a slowing housing market persist in the Mile High City, according to the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="latest data" data-vars-click-url="https://www.dmarealtors.com/sites/default/files/file/2022-10/DMAR_MarketTrendsReport_October2022.pdf" data-vars-content-id="ed78d549-71a4-4975-bd7c-0c52fbc8eeb1" data-vars-headline="Denver’s real estate market is finally calmer, but it&#x27;s not cheaper" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.dmarealtors.com/sites/default/files/file/2022-10/DMAR_MarketTrendsReport_October2022.pdf" target="_blank">latest data</a> from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Denver buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

Sami Sparber

Featured stories

Denver's real estate market will settle in 2023, experts say

Denver renters can't afford starter homes

Denver’s real estate market is finally calmer, but it's not cheaper

Denver commutes get a little bit shorter

Where to eat, play and stay in Buena Vista, 2.5 hours from Denver