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A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Columbus. Written by Tyler Buchanan and Alissa Widman Neese.

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The Columbus housing market shows no sign of a crash in 2023.

Here's what experts say to expect instead:

Craig Hicks of Columbus Realtors says demand, propped up by Intel's arrival, will keep the market steady in 2023. 

Columbus was No. 14 in Realtor.com's Top-100 Housing Forecast for 2023, which  forecasts home prices will appreciate 5% in 2023. 

"We have continued to have high demand with little inventory," Sue Van Woerkom of Keller Williams Capital Partners tells Axios.

2. Home prices will appreciate more normally.

Hicks thinks the days of homes selling way over asking are behind us. 

"After a record-breaking 2021 in terms of sales velocity and demand, 2022 saw the market return to a more familiar place," he says.

3. Buyers will likely have a little more negotiating power than in recent years.

The average list-to-sale price ratio has dropped, which indicates buyers might be able to "negotiate a little off the asking price," Van Woerkom says.

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Columbus real estate

Propped up by Intel's arrival, demand will likely keep the market steady in 2023.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

The Columbus housing market shows no sign of a crash in 2023.<ul><li>Here&#x27;s what experts say to expect instead:</li></ul>

Real Estate

Data: Zillow; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals 

The Columbus metro area's real estate market is starting to level off.

Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, local buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

What's happening: Mortgage rates started to surge in May and have since passed 7%.

The market has changed significantly since then.

By the numbers: Local median home sales prices dropped from $330,000 to $310,000 from May to September, according to the latest data from Redfin/MLS.

Homes sold in 33 days on average in May. In September, the average days on market was 39.

Just 41.7% of homes sold above list price in September, compared to 65.3% in May.

In September, 29.3% of listings dropped their asking price, up 15.3% since May.

The intrigue: Though our market may be improving a bit for buyers, monthly mortgage payments are still significantly more expensive today.

State of play: The monthly payment for a typical U.S. home is about $1,850 — $800 (75%) higher than a year ago.

That means a median household earning $71,895 a year is spending over 30% of its income on monthly payments, per a recent Zillow report.

Zoom in: In Central Ohio, a median household is currently spending about 25% of its income on monthly payments, up from 18% during 2005-2021.

Current home values would need to fall 27% to go back to affordability levels during that period.

The big picture: That's slightly higher than the drop needed nationwide (25%).

Yes, but: It would take a sharp increase in inventory for values to fall that dramatically, something Zillow says is "extremely unlikely."

The bottom line: Home asking prices may be dropping slightly, but ballooning interest rates mean mortgages are still unaffordable for many house-hunters — and it's unlikely they'll be able to bargain shop any time soon. 

Data: Freddie Mac; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

Buying a house in Columbus is easier — but not cheaper

The metro area's real estate market is starting to level off.

The Columbus metro area&#x27;s real estate market is starting to level off.Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, local buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

Roughly 90% of Ohio homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, locking them in place and leaving fewer homes for potential buyers, per Redfin data shared with Axios.

Why it matters: This "golden handcuffs" phenomenon is yet another factor straining our already tight local housing market.

What's happening: Mortgage holders have such great rates, they likely can't move without spending a lot more on a new loan, Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather explains.

Interest rates have been steadily climbing for two years.

A 30-year rate averaged 6.81% nationwide as of last week, the highest in 20 years, per Freddie Mac data.

By the numbers: About 20% of Ohio homeowners' rates are below 3%, per Redfin — meaning interest rates would more than double under the new average.

Zoom in: In May 2023, the number of closed home sales was down 18% compared to May 2022, according to Columbus Realtors.

Zoom out: It's not just a local issue. Nearly 92% of U.S. homeowners have secured mortgage rates below 6%, per the new Redfin report, which highlights data from late 2022.

Yes, but: Buyers are exploring adjustable-rate mortgages or buydowns in hopes of a lower monthly payment, Fairweather says.

Reality check: Lower rates could loosen up some supply, but not enough to meet demand, as new construction isn't keeping up, either.

Fairweather predicts it'll take the U.S. a decade to repair its housing shortage.

💭 Alissa's thought bubble: I've been wearing golden handcuffs since mid-2020. Less than a year after buying our first home, my husband and I refinanced our mortgage as rates plummeted in the pandemic's early days.

Our lender joked we'd never see that 3% rate again in our lifetimes — and, luckily, we have no buyer's remorse or reason to move.

Here's an example illustrating why many Columbus-area homeowners are staying put, using a median-priced $284,000 home.

Data: Redfin; Note: 6.4% was May 2023's average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios Visuals

👀 Eye-popping stat: The buyer would be paying $472 more per month on the same house just due to the higher interest rate.

"Golden handcuffs" lock up Ohio's housing supply

Soaring mortgage rates have Columbus homeowners staying put.

Illustration of a handcuff on a keychain in a lock

Housing

Roughly 90% of Ohio homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, locking them in place and leaving fewer homes for potential buyers, per Redfin data shared with Axios.Why it matters: This &quot;golden handcuffs&quot; phenomenon is yet another factor straining our already tight local housing market.

News

Hoping to buy a home in 2023? This might be the time to jump into the fray.

What's happening: The Columbus region's housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the past two years, though it's still nowhere near a return to pre-pandemic levels.

Why it matters: Any relief from sky-high home prices is welcome, especially as mortgage rates creep up.

By the numbers: The Columbus area's median home sale price was $279,900 in January, down nearly 6% from December.

Year-over-year prices, however, are still up 5.4% from last year.

Inventory was up over 7% from 2022, but remains low.

Homes sat on the market for a median of 52 days in January — 11 days longer than this time last year — giving buyers more room to negotiate and time to make decisions.

Zoom out: Nationally, median home sale prices have crept up 1.3% from 2022.

The national median home sale price in January was $383,000.

Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors.

As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, offering buyers more flexibility.

What's next: Spring, which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices, is right around the corner.

If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.

Yes, but: Local experts predict 2023 will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.

The bottom line: We're starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren't plummeting — and many would-be buyers are still being priced out.

Columbus home market cooling, but still above pre-COVID levels

January home prices were still up 5.4% from last year.

Hoping to buy a home in 2023? This might be the time to jump into the fray.What&#x27;s happening: The Columbus region&#x27;s housing market has moderated a little bit from the craziness of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="past two years" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2022/11/16/buying-house-columbus-easier-expensive" data-vars-content-id="667cbe9d-e028-4472-accf-e090d27005d3" data-vars-headline="Columbus home market cooling, but still above pre-COVID levels" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2022/11/16/buying-house-columbus-easier-expensive" target="_self">past two years</a>, though it&#x27;s still nowhere near a return to pre-pandemic levels.

Columbus' real estate market is holding steady for now.

Why it matters: We keep hearing about a market crash but, so far, local data doesn't support that. 

Pending home sales are down just 0.5% and median home sale prices are up 14% from May 2021 to May 2022, while new listings were down 4.2%.

Yes, but: These changes are very small and 2021 was a record-shattering year.

If more listings flood the market this summer and buyers don't bite, that’s when we could start to see more power shift into buyers' hands.

Zoom out: Nationally, mortgage applications were down 24% during the same time period. On average, 6.5% of sellers dropped their asking price each week in June, per Redfin's latest market update.

In June, national pending home sales were down 13% from this time last year —  the largest decline since May 2020, Redfin's report stated.

The bottom line: We're not seeing major changes in Columbus just yet, but we're starting to see early, albeit slight, signs of a cooler market ahead.

Columbus' real estate market isn't cooling just yet

We keep hearing about a market crash, but it's not here yet.

Illustration of a white picket fence shaped like arrows trending upwards

Columbus&#x27; real estate market is holding steady for now.Why it matters: We keep hearing about a market crash but, so far, local data doesn&#x27;t support that.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

"Golden handcuffs" lock up Ohio's housing supply

Columbus home market cooling, but still above pre-COVID levels

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Columbus real estate

Buying a house in Columbus is easier — but not cheaper

Columbus' real estate market isn't cooling just yet