Oct 26, 2022 - News

A fifth of the Texas electorate could be LGBTQ+ by 2040

Data: Human Rights Campaign; Chart: Axios Visuals

The LGBTQ+ voting population in Texas is projected to grow from little more than one in 10 voters today to one in five in 2040, per a report from the Human Rights Campaign.

Why it matters: The growth of the LGBTQ+ voting bloc — driven by higher LGBTQ+ identification among younger generations — could transform the electoral landscape at local, state and federal levels, writes Axios' Sophia Cai.

By the numbers: 12.3% of eligible Texas voters currently identify as LGBTQ+, per the report — a figure that's expected to reach 19.9% by 2040, researchers at the Human Rights Campaign Foundation and Bowling Green State University estimate.

  • The researchers calculate that 4.8% of Texas baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964), 7.3% of Gen Xers (1965-1980), 15.5% of Millennials (1981-1996) and 29.2% of people born 1997 or after, identify or will identify as LGBTQ+.

Reality check: Texas state politics has been trending in the opposite direction.

  • Gov. Greg Abbott earlier this year ordered state agencies to investigate the parents of transgender kids for child abuse if they pursue gender-affirming care.
  • Last year, he signed into law a measure that forces public school students to play on sports teams based on their assigned sex at birth.

Zoom out: In several consequential swing states — such as Ohio and Georgia — the proportion of LGBTQ+ voters will almost double between 2020 and 2040.

Go deeper: A record number of LGBTQ candidates are running for Congress


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