Andrew Harnik / AP

The fate of the healthcare bill is unknowable after yesterday's embarrassing delay and President Trump's strong-arm gamble of demanding a vote today. "Failure is an option," Axios' David Nather writes.

But lessons from the debacle are already apparent:

  • For tax reform, the White House and congressional leaders should consider splitting key elements into separate measures that have a better chance of success than a massive package. "Congress can only absorb so much political pain on the way to making big changes," a top lobbyist told me.
  • Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman, in a N.Y. Times front-pager headlined "A Brave Front, but Regrets? He Has a Few," say Trump focused on the fight too late: "Trump has told four people close to him that he regrets going along with ... Ryan's plan to push a health care overhaul before unveiling a tax cut proposal more politically palatable to Republicans. ... Trump was slow to recognize the high stakes of the fight, or the implications of losing. He approved the agenda putting health care first late last year, almost in passing."
  • Tucker Carlson, looking ahead to immigration reform on his Fox show last night, said Trump needs to employ fear sooner, and propose his own policy: "If the president wants an immigration bill, the White House ought to present its plan — not talking points, but a real plan, with details — explain what it is, why it works, how it will make the American middle class stronger than it already is, and then wield the stick. Make it plain that if Republican members of Congress won't back that bill, the White House will support primary efforts by those who will."
  • Dan Balz, in a front-page WashPost column,"In a do-or-die moment, Republicans come undone": "Trump's reputation as the closer in chief has taken a hit — and on the first big test of his presidency. The greater damage has been to the reputation of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan ... as the savvy intellectual godfather of a new conservative agenda around which his party could rally."

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In photos: Virginians line up for hours on first day of early voting

Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

In some parts of Virginia, people waited in line up to four hours to cast their ballots on the first day of early voting, according to the Washington Post.

The big picture: The COVID-19 pandemic seems to already have an impact on how people cast their votes this election season. As many as 80 million Americans are expected to vote early, by mail or in person, Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told Axios in August.

Updated 58 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 4:30 p.m. ET: 30,306,469 — Total deaths: 948,147— Total recoveries: 20,626,515Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 4:30 p.m. ET: 6,705,114 — Total deaths: 198,197 — Total recoveries: 2,540,334 — Total tests: 92,163,649Map.
  3. Politics: In reversal, CDC again recommends coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people.
  4. Health: Massive USPS face mask operation called off The risks of moving too fast on a vaccine.
  5. Business: Unemployment drop-off reverses course 1 million mortgage-holders fall through safety netHow the pandemic has deepened Boeing's 737 MAX crunch.
  6. Education: At least 42% of school employees are vulnerable.

Court battles shift mail-in voting deadlines in battleground states

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Michigan joins Pennsylvania in extending mail-in ballot deadlines by several days after the election, due to the coronavirus pandemic and expected delays in U.S. Postal Service.

The latest: Michigan Court of Claims Judge Cynthia Stephens ruled that all ballots postmarked before Nov. 2 must be counted, so long as they arrive in the mail before election results are certified. Michigan will certify its general election results on Nov. 23.