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Philippe Wojazer, Pool photo via AP

Official vote estimates from Sunday's election indicate that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will advance to a runoff for the French presidency on 7 May. The latest numbers:

  • Macron: 23.7%, Le Pen: 21.9%, Fillon: 19.7%, Melanchon: 19.2%

Macron is not affiliated with any political party, and he is now the only candidate standing between Le Pen's populist anti-Europe, anti-immigration platform and the presidency. He is favored in head-to-head polls by upwards of 20 percent.

The American connection: Macron used a conversation with Barack Obama as a campaign ad, and Le Pen's campaign points to Donald Trump as evidence she can win.

Emmanuel Macron: the 39-year-old former investment banker resigned as economic minister under Socialist Francois Hollande to form his own centrist political movement, En Marche. He quickly went from long-shot to favorite, with Barack Obama showing his tacit support with a phone call earlier this week.

Marine Le Pen: Le Pen has worked to make what was a fringe party under her father Jean-Marie electable, but anti-immigration and anti-Europe policies still form the basis of the National Front platform. Steve Bannon is a fan, but Reince Priebus says Trump's tweets should not be taken as a sign he supports Le Pen.

Francois Fillon: The conservative candidate beat former president Nicolas Sarkozy in the primary and appeared on course for victory, but his campaign was hit by scandal and he slipped outside the top two.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon: The far-left candidate is skeptical of both NATO and the EU and surged in the polls late on, campaigning via hologram and coming within striking distance of the runoff.

Other updates

Le Pen called the results "historical," saying the very survival of France was at stake and adding, "I am the candidate of the people." She derided Macron as "Hollande's heir" and said "it's time to free French people from arrogant elites."

Macron congratulated all of the candidates who did not advance by name, taking the first step toward consolidating their support. He said the second round presented "an opportunity for hope" for France and Europe, in contrast with "the threat of nationalism."

Fillon called the National Front an "extremist party" that would lead France to bankruptcy and Europe into chaos, saying he would vote for Macron.

Benoit Hamon, representing President Hollande's Socialist Party, had a stunningly poor result with about 6%. He has called on Socialist voters to back Macron, calling Le Pen "an enemy of the republic."

Melanchon did not concede, saying he'd wait for the final results.

Hollande took in the results:

Go deeper

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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Tech companies are sharing more information with law enforcement in a frantic effort to prevent violence around the inauguration, after the government was caught flat-footed by the Capitol siege.

Between the lines: Tech knows it will be held accountable for any further violence that turns out to have been planned online if it doesn't act to stop it.

Dave Lawler, author of World
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Uganda's election: Museveni declared winner, Wine claims fraud

Wine rejected the official results of the election. Photo: Sumy Sadruni/AFP via Getty

Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of a sixth presidential term on Saturday, with official results giving him 59% to 35% for Bobi Wine, the singer-turned-opposition leader.

Why it matters: This announcement was predictable, as the election was neither free nor fair and Museveni had no intention of surrendering power after 35 years. But Wine — who posed a strong challenged to Museveni, particularly in urban areas, and was beaten and arrested during the campaign — has said he will present evidence of fraud. The big question is whether he will mobilize mass resistance in the streets.

Off the Rails

Episode 1: A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Beginning on election night 2020 and continuing through his final days in office, Donald Trump unraveled and dragged America with him, to the point that his followers sacked the U.S. Capitol with two weeks left in his term. Axios takes you inside the collapse of a president with a special series.

Episode 1: Trump’s refusal to believe the election results was premeditated. He had heard about the “red mirage” — the likelihood that early vote counts would tip more Republican than the final tallies — and he decided to exploit it.

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”