Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

Primary races in eight states tonight will be the biggest test yet of whether 2018 is really the year of the woman.

  • Alabama, Iowa, and New Mexico could all nominate Democratic women for governor. Some of California's competitive congressional races could advance two women. And New Mexico's Deb Haaland could be one step closer to becoming the first Native American congresswoman.

Be smart: Women have over-performed in Democratic primaries by 15%, Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman points out.

Women watch
  • The incumbent governors in Alabama, Iowa, and New Mexico are all Republican women. Each state's Democratic primary has a woman candidate, and there's a woman running in South Dakota's GOP primary for the state's open seat.
  • New Mexico could elect the first Native American woman to the U.S. House if Deb Haaland makes it past tomorrow's primary and the November general election.
  • Two women could make it to the general election in California's 45th district and potentially (though not likely) in the 49th district. There are Democratic women endorsed by EMILY's List in six other districts in the state.
  • Iowa could advance two women in the first and third districts — both are endorsed by EMILY's List.
  • Alabama's 2nd district could send its incumbent Republican Rep. Martha Roby home after seven years. She won in 2016 with less than 50% of the vote because she didn't support Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape came out.
  • Mikie Sherrill is leading the Democratic primary in New Jersey's 11th district. She's got the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Joe Biden, Planned Parenthood and has raised $1.8M.

One more thing: Don't ignore the GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Montana, where four Republicans are facing off to challenge incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, who became even more vulnerable after the president tweeted that Tester should resign.

  • National Republican groups like Club for Growth have spent over $1.5 million for Matt Rosendale, and he's earned endorsements from conservative Sens. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Mike Lee. None of the Republican challengers are anything like Don Blankenship, who would have made it easier for a vulnerable Democrat to keep his seat.

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Trump's Tucker mind-meld

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images and BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

If you want to understand the rhetorical roots of Trump's Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore, go back and watch Tucker Carlson's monologues for the past six weeks.

Between the lines: Trump — or rather his speechwriter Stephen Miller — framed the president's opposition to the Black Lives Matter protest movement using the same imagery Carlson has been laying out night after night on Fox.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 11,366,145 — Total deaths: 532,644 — Total recoveries — 6,154,138Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 2,874,396 — Total deaths: 129,870 — Total recoveries: 906,763 — Total tested: 35,512,916Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.

Bolton's hidden aftershocks

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The news media has largely moved on, but foreign government officials remain fixated on John Bolton's memoir, "The Room Where It Happened."

Why it matters: Bolton's detailed inside-the-Oval revelations have raised the blood pressure of allies who were already stressed about President Trump's unreliability.