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Kelly testifies before Congress in July. Photo: SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

Anyone who claims to have gnostic wisdom about John Kelly's future in the White House should prepare to be embarrassed. Not even Donald Trump knows what will happen.

That said, I've chatted with people close to every part of this saga. And I've learned four facts that I hope will help you make sense of all the messy reporting, gossip, innuendo, and Beltway speculation about the president’s chief of staff.

1. Privately, Trump is always looking for excuses to bash Kelly. Trump has long chafed at Kelly's efforts to control him. He genuinely resented Kelly's claim to Fox News’ Bret Baier that Trump had “evolved” on immigration. So Kelly's bungling of the Rob Porter disaster just cemented a view the president would have held regardless.

  • "If he's so good, if he knows all this stuff, well how come the first time he gets a problem like this he doesn't know what to do?” Trump told one associate of Kelly. “He wants to handle me, but doesn't know how to handle problems like this."

2. Trump hasn’t made an ask. People very close to Kevin McCarthy, Gary Cohn and Mick Mulvaney — the top three contenders to replace Kelly — tell me definitively that the president has not broached the subject with them. There's a sense among their allies that the president may want themto come to him and ask for the job, which would be in character for Trump. However, I doubt any of them would do so, because if they did they'd have to take the job on Trump's terms.

  • Trump has been asking third parties about these men: "What do you think about Kevin?", "What do you think about Mick?", "What should we do about Gary?" Trump values the advice of all three men. He views Cohn as "a total killer" who's "done it all on Wall Street" even though he's a "globalist." Trump regularly asks Mulvaney for his thoughts on matters ranging far beyond his Budget portfolio, including immigration, healthcare, and what he thinks of certain White House officials. Same with McCarthy.

3. Kelly has lots of enemies in the building. Many White House staff feel Kelly walked in the door with a condescending "daddy's here now" attitude. Based on leaks I've received from inside the building, the chief of staff has lost the support of a good number of his subordinates. Several senior staff have privately questioned his honesty. Several officials told me they believe he lied about how he handled the Rob Porter disaster (His story directly contradicts the story the White House press shop told the media in real time.)

Bottom line: Trump resents Kelly, and no longer gives him the benefit of the doubt. But he hasn’t decided what to do about that.

Go deeper

Updated 16 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Arizona Republicans censure Cindy McCain and GOP governor

Combination images of Cindy McCain and Gov. Doug Ducey. Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic for U.S.VETS/Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Arizona Republican Party members voted on Saturday to censure prominent GOP figures Cindy McCain, Gov. Doug Ducey and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who've all faced clashes with former President Trump.

Why it matters: Although the resolution is symbolic, this move plus the re-election of Trump loyalist Kelli Ward as state GOP chair shows the strong hold the former president has on the party in Arizona, despite President Biden winning the state in the 2020 election.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

  1. Health: Most vulnerable Americans aren't getting enough vaccine information — Fauci says Trump administration's lack of facts on COVID "very likely" cost lives.
  2. Education: Schools face an uphill battle to reopen during the pandemic.
  3. Vaccine: Florida requiring proof of residency to get vaccine — CDC extends interval between vaccine doses for exceptional cases.
  4. World: Hong Kong puts tens of thousands on lockdown as cases surge — Pfizer to supply 40 million vaccine doses to lower-income countries — Brazil begins distributing AstraZeneca vaccine.
  5. Sports: 2021 Tokyo Olympics hang in the balance.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck.

DOJ: Capitol rioter threatened to "assassinate" Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Supporters of former President Trump storm the U.S. Captiol on Jan. 6. Photo: Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

A Texas man who has been charged with storming the U.S. Capitol in the deadly Jan. 6 siege posted death threats against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), the Department of Justice said.

The big picture: Garret Miller faces five charges in connection to the riot by supporters of former President Trump, including violent entry and disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds and making threats. According to court documents, Miller posted violent threats online the day of the siege, including tweeting “Assassinate AOC.”