The Kaiser Family Foundation has a good reality check this morning on the "exploding Obamacare" narrative. Yes, it found, most insurers' financial performance got worse in 2014 and 2015, the first two years Obamacare was in full effect. But the insurers were starting to recover in 2016 — a sign that the markets could be stabilizing.

The bottom line: The analysis suggests that the insurance market was starting to climb its way out of a hole, not falling apart — but it also says the market could still fall apart because of the uncertainty over what happens next.

What it found: The two measures Kaiser looked at:

  • Medical loss ratio: This is how much of the money they collected in premiums got paid out for medical care. The percentages rose a lot in 2014 and 2015 before dipping in 2016.
  • Gross margins per member: This measures how much more money insurers collected in premiums from each person than they spent on medical care. It dropped sharply in 2014, and insurers actually lost money on average in 2015, but they showed signs of recovery in 2016.

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Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
34 mins ago - Economy & Business

The holiday shopping season will now begin in October

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios

Amazon's decision to move its Prime Day to Oct. 13–14 this year will pull the whole holiday shopping season forward by more than a month and help make online retail bigger than ever, as more families shop electronically and jostle to get presents purchased ahead of December holidays.

Why it matters: The reality of the coronavirus pandemic pushing people toward e-commerce combined with the pull of Amazon Prime Day and the Christmas shopping season this year are setting up a bonanza for retailers — but only those with the ability to offer steep discounts, delivery and an attractive online platform.

Updated 39 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7:45 a.m. ET: 34,010,539 — Total deaths: 1,014,958 — Total recoveries: 23,662,200Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7:45 a.m. ET: 7,234,257 — Total deaths: 206,963 — Total recoveries: 2,840,688 — Total tests: 103,939,667Map.
  3. Education: School-aged children now make up 10% of all U.S COVID-19 cases.
  4. Health: Alarming vaccine skepticism. Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine won't be ready until 2021
  5. Travel: CDC: 3,689 COVID-19 or coronavirus-like cases found on cruise ships in U.S. waters — Airlines begin mass layoffs while clinging to hope for federal aid
  6. Business: Real-time data show economy's rebound slowing but still going.
  7. Sports: Steelers-Titans NFL game delayed after coronavirus outbreak.

America's nightmare foretold

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Trump made it clear at the debate that he’ll continue to call the results fraudulent — and contest the outcome in key states — no matter how wide the margin. That’ll be amplified by a massive amount of disinformation, even though the platforms are trying to curtail it.

Why it matters: Back in 2000, we didn’t know Bush v. Gore was going to happen. We know this is going to happen.