The Kaiser Family Foundation has a good reality check this morning on the "exploding Obamacare" narrative. Yes, it found, most insurers' financial performance got worse in 2014 and 2015, the first two years Obamacare was in full effect. But the insurers were starting to recover in 2016 — a sign that the markets could be stabilizing.

The bottom line: The analysis suggests that the insurance market was starting to climb its way out of a hole, not falling apart — but it also says the market could still fall apart because of the uncertainty over what happens next.

What it found: The two measures Kaiser looked at:

  • Medical loss ratio: This is how much of the money they collected in premiums got paid out for medical care. The percentages rose a lot in 2014 and 2015 before dipping in 2016.
  • Gross margins per member: This measures how much more money insurers collected in premiums from each person than they spent on medical care. It dropped sharply in 2014, and insurers actually lost money on average in 2015, but they showed signs of recovery in 2016.

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Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Trump's Tucker mind-meld

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Roy Rochlin/Getty Images and BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

If you want to understand the rhetorical roots of Trump's Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore, go back and watch Tucker Carlson's monologues for the past six weeks.

Between the lines: Trump — or rather his speechwriter Stephen Miller — framed the president's opposition to the Black Lives Matter protest movement using the same imagery Carlson has been laying out night after night on Fox.

Updated 7 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 11,366,145 — Total deaths: 532,644 — Total recoveries — 6,154,138Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 6 p.m. ET: 2,874,396 — Total deaths: 129,870 — Total recoveries: 906,763 — Total tested: 35,512,916Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.

Bolton's hidden aftershocks

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The news media has largely moved on, but foreign government officials remain fixated on John Bolton's memoir, "The Room Where It Happened."

Why it matters: Bolton's detailed inside-the-Oval revelations have raised the blood pressure of allies who were already stressed about President Trump's unreliability.