President Donald Trump during a news conference with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

Like every major Trump decision, the president is leaving even his closest advisers in suspense over his plans for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Most aides I've spoken to think Trump will appoint Fed Board member Jerome Powell. But nobody who's spoken to Trump feels overly confident.

"It's never a done deal with this guy," said one official.

Rupert Murdoch, who speaks regularly to Trump by telephone and is one of his most influential informal advisers, has urged the president to appoint either of the two free market conservative finalists, Stanford economist John Taylor or former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, according to two sources familiar with his outreach.

A spokesman for Murdoch declined to comment.

Trump didn't have amazing chemistry with Taylor, according to two sources familiar with their interactions. But he's still in the mix, possibly for vice chair. Top officials who Trump respects, including Vice President Pence, have been vouching for Taylor's credentials and intellect. Trump has also spoken favorably of current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, further muddling the picture.

What else we're hearing:

  • A source who spoke to Trump late last week said they left the conversation believing the president had not made up his mind.
  • Another source close to the process told me the smart money is still on Powell. Powell's most aggressive advocate has been Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. But Trump should be taken at his word when he tells Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo that he's considering Taylor and Yellen, or a combination of Powell and Taylor for chair and vice-chair.
  • Some White House officials have vented about the constant stream of news stories promoting Powell's candidacy. They say they suspect the leaks have come from Treasury, since Powell is Mnuchin's preferred candidate.
  • One senior official said Powell is far from a home run for Republicans. When Obama nominated Powell to the Fed Board, in 2012, 21 Republican senators voted against his confirmation.

What the West Wing is reading: Senior administration officials told me that Friday's Wall Street Journal editorial headlined "A Fed for a Growth Economy" was read attentively in the West Wing. The editorial argues it's a bad idea to give another term to the Obama appointee Janet Yellen or replace her with Jerome Powell, whom the Journal portrays as a Yellen clone. The newspaper lobbies for Trump to appoint either Taylor or Warsh. "Both would be change agents at the Fed," the editorial declares.

Bottom line: If you're handicapping the Fed Chair race, you're still probably safest with Powell. But this is far from a done deal. Trump still plans to announce his pick for the Fed Chair before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 3.

Go deeper

10 mins ago - World

China's extraterritorial threat

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

All multinational companies and executives need to worry about breaking U.S. law, no matter where they're based or doing business. Now, they need to worry about Chinese law, too.

Why it matters: The projection of U.S. norms and laws around the world has been an integral (and much resented) part of America's "soft power" since 1945. As China positions itself to replace the USA as global hegemon, expect it to become increasingly assertive along similar lines.

Big Pharma launches $1B venture to incentivize new antibiotics

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

A group of large drug companies launched a $1 billion AMR Action Fund Thursday in collaboration with policymakers, philanthropists and development banks to push the development of two to four new antibiotics by 2030.

Why it matters: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing problem — possibly killing up to 20 million people annually by 2050 — but a severe lack of R&D market incentives has hampered efforts to develop a robust antibiotic pipeline to address the issue.

Updated 42 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Inside Geoffrey Berman's closed-door testimony

Berman arrives on Capitol Hill Thursday. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Geoffrey Berman, the former top federal prosecutor in Manhattan, was expected to say in closed-door testimony today that Attorney General Bill Barr repeatedly urged him to take another job, warned him that getting fired would not be good for his resume or job prospects and steered him toward a high-level Justice Department post in DC.

Driving the news: Axios has obtained a copy of Berman's opening statement for his closed-door hearing before the House Judiciary Committee.