Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on the day's biggest business stories

Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Stay on top of the latest market trends

Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sports news worthy of your time

Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tech news worthy of your time

Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Get the inside stories

Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Axios on your phone

Get breaking news and scoops on the go with the Axios app.

Download for free.

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?

Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas

Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Eight months after Donald Trump's shock election, economists and other social scientists remain at odds on his rise and that of right-wing populism in the west more generally.

So we have combed through recent papers on the political wave. Three of the most interesting ideas:

  • Harvard economist Dani Rodrik: we are watching the predictable result of more relaxed international trade and the rise of financial globalization.
  • Boston University's Douglas Kriner and Francis Shen of the University of Minnesota: if just three states had suffered fewer casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan, Hillary Clinton might today be president.
  • And James Montier, an asset allocation team member for GMO, the investment manager: crippling inequality explains the anti-establishment revolt.

Rodrik and history: the anti-establishment wave, he writes in a new draft paper, "has been on the rise for at least a decade ... and was perfectly predictable." He writes:

  • Populist movements everywhere are the result of an "advanced stage of globalization," when international trade becomes highly integrated.
  • An example: at the end of the 19th century, multiple countries cut trade barriers; allowed capital, through the gold standard, to move freely across borders; and permitted relatively free immigration.
  • In the U.S., this period culminated in the impactful presidential campaigns of populist William Jennings Bryan, who denounced big banks, monopoly power, and the gold standard, and, later, legal alcohol and the teaching of evolution in schools
  • Rodrik's prescriptions: restrict foreign investment, protect sensitive industries, and enact a more robust safety net to blunt the effects of global competition on workers.

Kriner, Shen and the effects of war: Deep dissatisfaction with establishment political figures is especially prevalent among communities that have suffered a disproportionate share of the casualties from a decade and a half of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. They write:

  • A pillar of Trump's presidential campaign was an indictment of both Republican and Democratic foreign policy, specifically the invasion of Iraq, which he called a colossal blunder and a waste of money that could have been spent on domestic problems.
  • There is a link between military casualties and support for Trump. "Even controlling ... for many other alternative explanations, we find that there is a significant and meaningful relationship between a community's rate of military sacrifice and its support for Trump."
  • "If three states key to Trump's victory—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—had suffered even a modestly lower casualty rate, all three could have flipped from red to blue and sent Hillary Clinton to the White House."

Montier and economic inequality: The global economy is a period of "secular stagnation" — widespread slow economic growth, low inflation, and a global middle class with little increase in spending power. He writes:

  • Politicians seeking to avoid tough political fights over fiscal policy have instead relied too heavily on central banks, like the Federal Reserve.
  • Governments should target specific, low unemployment and inflation rates, and offer a jobs guarantee until that target is hit, singling out high-priority work like caring for the elderly.
  • The rationale: "The government offers a fixed wage. ... This wage acts as the de facto minimum wage, below which no labor will be forthcoming to private sector employers. When unemployment is high, workers will flow into the government scheme, and when the economy starts to grow, private employers 'hire off the top' of the scheme by offering a [higher] wage."

Thought bubble: The Trump election and the success of other populist movements in Europe have emboldened establishment economists like Rodrik to reassess the costs and benefits of globalization, and led respected City-of-London vets like Montier to advocate radical policy changes.

Go deeper

3 hours ago - Health

Biden: Americans with long-COVID symptoms may qualify for disability resources

President Biden speaking in Arlington, Virginia, on July 23. Photo: Oliver Contreras/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Americans experiencing long-term symptoms of COVID-19 may qualify for disability resources from the federal government, President Biden announced Monday during an event to mark the 31st anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act.

Driving the news: The departments of Justice and Health and Human Services released new guidance Monday that categorizes “long COVID" as a physical or mental impairment, entitling people with the illness to discrimination protections under the the ADA.

Study: Get ready for many more record-shattering heatwaves

NASA computer model image of temperature departures from average on June 27 during the Pacific Northwest heat wave. (NASA Earth Observatory)

The recent deadly heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, during which all-time temperature records were shattered by several degrees, is a prologue to what is coming across much of the U.S., Europe and Asia, a new study finds.

Why it matters: The study shows that the rate of climate change is an under-appreciated driver of extreme heat, and that today's quickening pace of warming virtually guarantees more extreme temperature records in coming decades.

Updated 5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

UN: Civilian casualties in Afghanistan hit record high amid U.S troop withdrawal

Afghan security force members inspect the site of an explosion in Kabul. Photo: Sayed Mominzadah/Xinhua via Getty Images

Civilian casualties in Afghanistan have hit record highs amid the U.S. troop withdrawal from the country, the UN said in a report released Monday.

Why it matters: The report, which documented more than 1,650 civilians deaths in the first half of 2021, provides a "clear warning" that an unprecedented number of Afghan civilians "will perish and be maimed this year if the increasing violence is not stemmed," Deborah Lyons, the secretary-general’s special representative for Afghanistan, said in a statement.