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The clean energy think tank Ember finds India's coal demand may have peaked in 2018 and might never fully return from further declines during the pandemic.
Driving the news: That would break with projections that India's coal thirst will keep rising for a long time as the growing nation's overall energy demand surges.
- For instance, the International Energy Agency's "stated policies" scenario — which models current and announced policies — sees coal generation rising over this decade.
But, but, but: A lot more renewables are needed to keep coal-fired power from rising. "Peaking of coal-fired generation is contingent on India meeting its wind and solar generation targets," Ember's report states, adding India's not on pace.
Why it matters: India is the world's 3rd-largest carbon emitter. IEA projects that it will see the biggest increase in energy demand of any country over the next 20 years.
- Fuels used to meet that demand will influence the world's success — or failure — at stemming emissions.
The bottom line: "As India recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the choices it makes for its power sector can make or break its coal-to-clean electricity transition in the next decade," the report concludes.
Go deeper: India's energy surge makes it pivotal for the climate