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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Oil demand is slated for a large bounce-back from the pandemic that will tighten the market a lot, but it's going to take a while, the International Energy Agency said.

Why it matters: "The rebalancing of the oil market remains fragile in the early part of 2021 as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, with its more contagious variants, weigh heavily on the near-term recovery in global oil demand," IEA said in its monthly oil market analysis today.

The big picture: IEA sees demand rising on a full-year basis in 2021 by 5.4 million barrels per day, which means the recovery of about 60% from last year's pandemic-fueled collapse.

  • But it'll take a while. They see demand actually falling this quarter compared to the last three months of 2020, while a "favourable economic outlook underpins stronger demand in the second half of the year."
  • The tighter market is on the way though (with all the necessary caveats about COVID's trajectory).
  • IEA sees global crude stockpiles falling significantly in the second half of the year as demand rises, while new crude supplies from outside OPEC are modest.

Go deeper: IEA sees tighter oil market despite demand caution, modest supply optimism (S&P Global Platts)

Go deeper

Ben Geman, author of Generate
Feb 10, 2021 - Energy & Environment

Coal is set for a miniature pandemic rebound

Data: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Chart: Axios Visuals

U.S. coal production is still slated for a bounce-back from the pandemic lows, but it may be smaller than federal analysts previously thought.

Driving the news: The latest Energy Information Administration estimates show U.S. production rising 9% this year, down from their prior guess of 12%.

Cuomo barraged by fellow Dems after second harassment accusation

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo faced a barrage of criticism from fellow Democrats after The New York Times reported that the second former aide in four days had accused him of sexual harassment.

Why it matters: Cuomo had faced a revolt from legislators for his handling of nursing-home deaths from COVID. Now, the scandal is acutely personal, with obviously grave political risk.

Fauci: Children "very likely" to get COVID vaccine at start of 2022

NIAID Director Anthony Fauci. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Children under age 12 will "very likely" be able to get vaccinated for coronavirus at the "earliest the end of the year, and very likely the first quarter of 2022," NIAID Director Anthony Fauci told "Meet the Press" Sunday.

Why it matters: Children generally aren't at risk of serious coronavirus infections, but vaccinating them will be key to protecting the adults around them and, eventually, reaching herd immunity, writes Axios' Caitlin Owens.

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