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The International Energy Agency has just released its big annual report on global energy trends in coming decades, including projections on energy demand, carbon emissions and changes in the global energy mix between now and 2040.

Key takeaways

Under the IEA's New Policies scenario, which models existing and officially announced policies worldwide, total global energy demand rises more slowly than in the past but still increases by 30 percent between now and 2040.

Climate change: Global carbon emissions from energy (which is the main source) increase slightly between now and 2040 in the New Policies model.

  • Why it matters: It shows that absent more aggressive efforts to curb greenhouse gases, the world will fail badly to achieve the steep emissions cuts needed to hold the eventual rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees celsius above preindustrial levels—the goal of the Paris agreement to avoid some of the most dangerous climatic changes.

Evolving mix: Check out the chart below, which provides an interesting snapshot of seismic shifts in the global energy dynamics underway. It depicts how the sources of emissions growth are changing as coal demand flatlines but use of oil and natural gas rises.

Expand chart
Data: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, OECD/IEA; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios
A few more topline conclusions

No oil peak: Global demand for oil keeps rising in the New Policies scenario, albeit slowing down after the mid-2020s, reaching almost 105 million barrels per day in 2040.

  • Greater auto efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles is more than offset by oil demand from petrochemical production, trucking, aviation and shipping.

Renewables rise: Renewables meet 40 percent of the growth of energy demand, signaling the huge changes underway in the electricity sector as gas, wind, and solar have gained as coal stagnates.

Alternate future: The report also includes a "Sustainable Development Scenario," which is an energy future that meets the climate goals of the Paris agreement, as well as providing universal access to "modern" energy by 2030 and other goals.

Features of this pathway include . . .

  • Power generation is "all but decarbonized" by 2040, with renewables at over 60 percent of worldwide generation (and together with gas accounting for over 80 percent), nuclear at 15 percent, and carbon capture and storage from fossil generation playing a role.
  • On the transportation side, one feature of this scenario is that the electric car penetration rises to roughly 875 million cars worldwide by 2040, are there are "much more stringent efficiency measures across the board, notably for road freight."

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - World

U.S. airstrike kills senior al-Qaeda leader in Syria, DOD says

A displacement camp near the village of Qah in Syria's northwestern Idlib province. Photo: Ahmad Al-Atrash/AFP via Getty Images

A U.S. airstrike in northwest Syria on Friday killed senior al-Qaeda leader Abdul Hamid al-Matar, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

Why it matters: Syria serves as a "safe haven" for the extremist group to plan external operations, according to U.S. Army Maj. John Rigsbee.

Updated 8 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Giuliani associate Lev Parnas convicted of campaign finance crimes

Lev Parnas, a former associate of then-President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Florida businessman Lev Parnas was convicted Friday on charges of conspiracy to make foreign contributions to political campaigns, according to multiple outlets.

Why it matters: Prosecutors said Parnas, then an associate of former President Donald Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, funneled over $150,000 from a Russian businessman into U.S. campaigns as part of an effort to land licenses in the U.S.'s legal cannabis industry.

Supreme Court agrees to hear challenges to Texas abortion law

Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear two cases challenging Texas' abortion law, which bans the procedure as soon as six weeks into pregnancy, but left the law in place in the meantime.

Why it matters: The court is moving extraordinarily fast on the Texas cases, compressing into just a few days a process that normally takes months. And that schedule means the court will take up Texas' ban a month before it hears another major abortion case — a challenge to Mississippi's own 2018 ban on abortions after 15 weeks.