Quarterly global changes in oil inventories, demand, and supply. Chart: IEA

The International Energy Agency sees strong potential for some stability in global crude markets next year — if OPEC and Russia re-up their production-limiting deal beyond the first quarter (check out the chart above).

  • "Looking into 2018, we see that three quarters out of four will be roughly balanced — again using an assumption of unchanged OPEC production, and based on normal weather conditions," they said in the latest closely watched monthly outlook.
  • "The next few weeks ahead of the producers' meeting in Vienna on 30 November will be crucial in shaping their decision on output. A lot has been achieved towards [stabilizing] the market, but to build on this success in 2018 will require continued discipline."

By the numbers: The IEA expects supply from outside of OPEC to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day next year, alongside similar growth in crude demand of 1.4 million.

The IEA notes that there has been progress in cutting the glut of global inventories, with a "major reduction in floating storage, oil in transit, and stocks held in some independent areas."

  • At the end of August, combined stocks of crude oil and refined products in industrialized countries were slightly over 3 billion barrels, dropping down to 170 million barrels above the five-year average, a sign of progress in clearing the global glut.

Go deeper: Reuters has much more on the report here.

Go deeper

2 hours ago - Health

U.S. hits highest daily COVID-19 case count since pandemic began

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COVID Tracking Project

The U.S. confirmed at least 83,010 coronavirus cases on Friday, the country's highest daily total since the pandemic started, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.

By the numbers: Friday's total surpassed the U.S.'s previous record set on July 17 when 76,842 cases were recorded. 

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

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President Trump has not attended a White House coronavirus task force meeting in “several months,” NIAID director Anthony Fauci told MSNBC on Friday.

Why it matters: At the beginning of the pandemic, the task force, led by Vice President Mike Pence, met every day, but in the "last several weeks," members have held virtual meetings once a week, Fauci said, even as the number of new cases continues to surge in the country.