Quarterly global changes in oil inventories, demand, and supply. Chart: IEA

The International Energy Agency sees strong potential for some stability in global crude markets next year — if OPEC and Russia re-up their production-limiting deal beyond the first quarter (check out the chart above).

  • "Looking into 2018, we see that three quarters out of four will be roughly balanced — again using an assumption of unchanged OPEC production, and based on normal weather conditions," they said in the latest closely watched monthly outlook.
  • "The next few weeks ahead of the producers' meeting in Vienna on 30 November will be crucial in shaping their decision on output. A lot has been achieved towards [stabilizing] the market, but to build on this success in 2018 will require continued discipline."

By the numbers: The IEA expects supply from outside of OPEC to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day next year, alongside similar growth in crude demand of 1.4 million.

The IEA notes that there has been progress in cutting the glut of global inventories, with a "major reduction in floating storage, oil in transit, and stocks held in some independent areas."

  • At the end of August, combined stocks of crude oil and refined products in industrialized countries were slightly over 3 billion barrels, dropping down to 170 million barrels above the five-year average, a sign of progress in clearing the global glut.

Go deeper: Reuters has much more on the report here.

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There's little consensus on TikTok's specific national security threat

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

TikTok has become a Rorschach test for how U.S. politicians view China, with little consensus on the specifics of its threat to homeland security.

The big picture: Much of what D.C. fears about TikTok is fear itself, and that's reflected in President Trump's executive order to ban the app by Sept. 20 if it's not sold by parent company ByteDance — alongside another focused on Chinese messaging app WeChat and its parent company Tencent.

U.S. sanctions Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam

Photo: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images)

The Treasury Department on Friday placed sanctions on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, following months of tension as she has allowed continued overreach by Beijing to subvert Hong Kong's autonomy.

Why it matters: It's the toughest sanction yet imposed on China for its destruction of Hong Kong’s relatively free political system.

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The Cadillac Lyriq. Image courtesy of Cadillac

Cadillac on Thursday unveiled the Lyriq, the luxury brand's first all-electric model and GM's first consumer electric vehicle unveil since the Chevy Bolt several years ago.

Why it matters: It's the first reveal by GM of an electric vehicle that will use the company's new modular platform and Ultium battery system — technologies meant to underpin the 20 electric vehicles that GM plans to launch by 2023.