Calm before the storm. West Lake in Hangzhou, China. Photo: Johannes Eisele / AFP / Getty

With billions of dollars in tariffs threatened on both sides, the U.S. and China look like warring nations. But experienced trade hands tell us these are only appearances — it's the chest-thumping brinksmanship stage of negotiations, they say.

Okay, but if so, when will we know we are watching war?

After all, in a report this week, Brookings estimates that Chinese tariffs just threatened to date — a "shrewdly chosen 'hit list' of hallmark American industries" — could cost 2.1 million U.S. jobs.

  • "We are in uncharted territory," says Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tells me. "It’s more like we’ll know it when we see it."
  • Cornell University's Eswar Prasad says it's not all that inscrutable. "When both sides actually start levying the tariffs, then we will be in a trade war," Prasad told me.

Bonus: The nearest example of out-and-out trade war is the 1930s, after the U.S. enacted the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. Read this description by Bown and his Peterson colleague Douglas Irwin.

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Natural gas pipeline project cancelled after Supreme Court victory

Photo: Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Dominion Energy announced Sunday it has agreed to sell its natural gas transmission and storage network to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in a deal valued at $10 billion, including the assumption of debt.

Why it matters: The deal comes as Duke Energy Corp. and Dominion Energy announced they are canceling their plans for the $8 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline following a Supreme Court ruling. The ruling removed major hurdles for the companies, but "recent developments have created an unacceptable layer of uncertainty and anticipated" for the project.

Trump campaign "strongly" encourages face masks at outdoor rally

Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Trump campaign will be providing face masks and hand sanitizer for all attendees at an upcoming rally Saturday in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

  • The campaign said in an email on Sunday that attendees are "strongly encouraged" to wear the masks.

Why it matters: The campaign's first coronavirus-era rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, was notable for its lack of masks.

Updated 3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 11,317,637 — Total deaths: 531,729 — Total recoveries — 6,111,910Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 2 p.m. ET: 2,852,807 — Total deaths: 129,718 — Total recoveries: 894,325 — Total tested: 34,858,427Map.
  3. States: Photos of America's pandemic July 4 ICU beds in Arizona hot spot near capacity — Houston mayor warns about hospitals
  4. Public health: U.S. coronavirus infections hit record highs for 3 straight days.
  5. Politics: Former Trump official Tom Bossert says face masks “are not enough”
  6. World: Mexican leaders call for tighter border control as infections rise in U.S.
  7. Sports: Sports return stalked by coronavirus
  8. 1 📽 thing: Drive-in movie theaters are making a comeback.