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Carolyn Kaster / AP

Peter Thiel has made some shrewd bets in his lifetime: a half-million dollar wager as Facebook's first outside investor, earning him roughly $1 billion when he cashed out in 2012; and more recently, his contrarian political bet on Donald Trump.

Need more evidence to recommend Thiel's foresight? Check out this video from the 2007 Singularity Summit (ignore the erroneous year in the video title), in which Thiel suggests how to bet on the singularity, the inflection point when machines achieve super-human intelligence.

Thiel's thesis is that the only real choice is a bet that the singularity wildly succeeds, and not that humanity is doomed (i.e., a Matrix-like conquest of man by machine). "If you are somebody who is predicting the end of the world, even if you are right, I think you will still not make a lot of money," Thiel quips in the video.

  • Thiel did this talk months before the financial crash pulled the U.S. into the Great Recession, and many years before the recovery led to today's lofty valuations for AI-intensive companies like Google and Facebook.
  • "If you have a singularity, there is presumably going to be one entity or one company or one team that's going to take over the whole world and be worth more than everything else put together," Thiel says.
  • In a world where the singularity is nigh, the only way for investors to bet on it is to invest in the entity that triggers it or some proxy for that entity (like, say, the San Francisco real estate market).

Thiel's predictions: We should expect booms and busts of successively greater magnitude as investors go all in on whatever they see as the future source of unbounded technological growth.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

In photos: The Biden and Harris inauguration

President Biden and first lady Jill Biden watch a fireworks show on the National Mall from the Truman Balcony at the White House on Wednesday night. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

President Biden signed his first executive orders into law from the Oval Office on Wednesday evening after walking in a brief inaugural parade to the White House with First Lady Jill Biden and members of their family. He was inaugurated with Vice President Kamala Harris at the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: Many of Biden's day one actions immediately reverse key Trump administration policies, including rejoining the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization, launching a racial equity initiative and reversing the Muslim travel ban.

Republicans pledge to set aside differences and work with Biden

President Biden speaks to Sen. Mitch McConnell after being sworn in at the West Front of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. Photo: Erin Schaff-Pool/Getty Images

Several Republicans praised President Biden's calls for unity during his inaugural address on Wednesday and pledged to work together for the benefit of the American people.

Why it matters: The Democrats only have a slim majority in the Senate and Biden will likely need to work with the GOP to pass his legislative agenda.

The Biden protection plan

Joe Biden announces his first run for the presidency in June 1987. Photo: Howard L. Sachs/CNP/Getty Images

The Joe Biden who became the 46th president on Wednesday isn't the same blabbermouth who failed in 1988 and 2008.

Why it matters: Biden now heeds guidance about staying on task with speeches and no longer worries a gaffe or two will cost him an election. His staff also limits the places where he speaks freely and off the cuff. This Biden protective bubble will only tighten in the months ahead, aides tell Axios.