Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, Khalid Al-Falih Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia, and Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General of Nigeria, attend a news conference after an OPEC meeting. Photo: Ronald Zak / AP

OPEC is out today with its big annual World Oil Outlook, a detailed analysis of supply and demand trends in coming decades that puts meat on the bones of some top-line conclusions that Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo offered in London last month.

Why it matters: Yes, OPEC has plenty of reasons to shape a narrative around future oil demand. But the forecast nonetheless adds a detailed entry to the mix of analyses of the global energy pictures, and shows how the powerful cartel is positioning itself.

A few takeaways:

No peak: The outlook shows global demand growing through 2040 — the end of the forecast period — to reach 111 million barrels per day by then (a slight increase over their last projection), although the growth rate slows during the latter parts of the forecast to 300,000 barrels per day during 2035–2040.

  • As we explored in Generate before, this contrasts with some other forecasts of demand peaking as soon as the late 2020s.
  • Nearer term, OPEC has revised demand upward by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2022 compared to last year's outlook.
  • They see demand for transportation fuels climbing 5.4 million barrels per day by 2040 as the expanding auto fleet outpaces increasing efficiency and electric vehicle penetration.

Don't call it a comeback: The report shows OPEC's importance to global crude supply reasserting itself. The outlook projects that U.S. production will keep rising sharply for years but then tight oil — the driver of the U.S. surge — peaks around 2025 and then starts declining.

  • "Demand for OPEC crude is projected to remain just over 33 mb/d until US tight oil peaks in the mid-2020s, after which demand for OPEC crude rises steadily to reach 41.4 mb/d by 2040," it notes.

Spending needed: The report forecasts that meeting global oil demand will require $10.5 trillion in global investment between now and 2040, with $7.9 trillion of that needed in the upstream sector to ensure a "balanced and stable market."

  • The report notes that while what has been stagnant investment levels pick up somewhat in 2017 and 2018, it's nowhere near past levels and much of it is in so-called short-cycle (i.e. shale).
  • "It is vital that this be rectified so that a lack of investments today does not lead to a supply shortage in the future," the report states.

Go deeper

Two officers shot in Louisville amid Breonna Taylor protests

Police officers stand guard during a protest in Louisville, Kentucky. Photo: Ben Hendren/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Louisville Metro Police Department said two officers were shot downtown in the Kentucky city late Wednesday, just hours after a grand jury announced an indictment in the Breonna Taylor case.

Driving the news: Metrosafe, the city's emergency services, said it received reports of a shooting at South Brook St. and Broadway Ave., near the area where protests were taking place. A police spokesperson told a press briefing the injuries of both officers were not life-threatening. One officer was "alert and stable" and the other was undergoing surgery, he said.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 31,778,331 — Total deaths: 974,436 — Total recoveries: 21,876,025Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET: 6,943,078 — Total deaths: 201,930 — Total recoveries: 2,670,256 — Total tests: 97,459,742Map.
  3. Health: CDC director says over 90% of Americans have not yet been exposed to coronavirus — Supply shortages continue to plague testing.
  4. Politics: Missouri Gov. Mike Parson tests positive for coronavirus — Poll says 51% of Republicans trust Trump on coronavirus more than the CDC.
  5. Technology: The tech solutions of 2020 may be sapping our resolve to beat the coronavirus
  6. Vaccines: Johnson & Johnson begins large phase 3 trial — The FDA plans to toughen standards.
  7. Sports: Less travel is causing the NBA to see better basketball.
  8. Future: America's halfway coronavirus response

Biden: Breonna Taylor indictment "does not answer" call for justice

Former Vice President Joe Biden. Photo: Leigh Vogel/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden on Wednesday condemned the grand jury indictment of a Louisville police officer who entered Breonna Taylor's home in March in a botched drug raid that led to her death, saying in a statement the decision "does not answer" for equal justice.

The big picture: Biden called for reforms to address police use of force and no-knock warrants, while demanding a ban on chokeholds. He added that people "have a right to peacefully protest, but violence is never acceptable."

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