Nov 14, 2017

How oil's stranglehold may be eroded

Ben Geman, author of Generate

A self-driving truck in Las Vegas. Photo: John Locher / AP

A new report from IHS Markit looks at the combination of the rise of electric vehicles, autonomy and "mobility as a service" trends such as ride-sharing — factors that will erode oil's stranglehold on transportation fuels by 2040.

One possible future: Add it all up and you have a "convergence of technological, political, and economic forces could fundamentally alter the automotive ecosystem." They summarize some of the findings in a blog post, and here are a few key points:

  • "By 2040, oil will still be a big business but will have lost its monopoly as a transport fuel. Gasoline and diesel demand from cars will peak in the mid-2020s, although the growth of hybrid vehicles, which will still have a gasoline engine, will temper the demand slowdown."
  • "More stringent fuel economy and emission standards, rather than EVs, will have the most significant impact on slowing oil demand."
  • By 2040, vehicle miles traveled will have grown 65% to 11 billion miles per year in China, India, Europe and the U.S. (the major markets they analyzed for the report).
  • Again, no peak: But given the various factors affecting global oil demand, their baseline scenario forecasts a "plateau" in global oil demand by 2040 at around 115 million barrels per day, but not a peak per se.

Why it matters: The report is another data point as policymakers and analysts try and gauge the future of oil demand and mobility.

Yes, but: Their outlook for EV's is more pessimistic than what another consultancy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, has predicted. IHS sees EVs accounting for over 30% of new vehicle sales in the big markets they looked at.

  • In contrast, BNEF sees electric vehicles comprising 54% of new vehicle sales in 2040.

Go deeper: The Houston Chronicle has a detailed piece on the new report here.

Go deeper

Updated 30 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Updates: George Floyd protests continue for 8th day

Police officers wearing riot gear push back demonstrators outside of the White House on Monday. Photo: Jose Luis Magana/AFP via Getty Images

Protests over the death of George Floyd and other police-related killings of black people continued Tuesday across the U.S. for the eighth consecutive day, prompting a federal response from the National Guard, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.

The latest: The National Park Service said in a statement Tuesday that while it "is committed to the peaceful expression of First Amendment rights," it "cannot tolerate violence to citizens or officers or damage to our nation’s resources that we are entrusted to protect."

American carnage

Protesters race up a hill to avoid tear gas in Philadelphia, June 1. Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

The list of victims has swiftly grown since George Floyd died in police custody just eight days ago.

The big picture: Protests against police brutality have turned into a showcase of police brutality, with tear gas and rubber bullets deployed against crowds. The police have the arsenals at their disposal, but we're also seeing law enforcement officers becoming targets.

McConnell blocks resolution condemning Trump's actions against peaceful protesters

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blocked a resolution introduced by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday that would have condemned the use of tear gas and rubber bullets against peaceful protesters outside the White House on Monday in order to allow President Trump to walk to St. John's Church.

What they're saying: "Justice for black Americans in the face of unjust violence, and peace for our country in the face of looting, riots, and domestic terror. Those are the two issues Americans want addressed," McConnell said on the Senate floor.