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Gang's all here at last year's G-20. They won't be forever. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/AFP/Getty Images

Five years from now, Germany's Angela Merkel and the U.K.'s Theresa May will have faded from the political scene, while Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and China's Xi Jinping will continue to dominate domestically and shape geopolitics.

The big picture: That's according to Bloomberg's World Leaders’ Political Health Check, which shows France's Emmanuel Macron and potentially Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) slipping over the past six months. Other prominent world leaders have held steady, with President Trump projected to carry on through 2024.

  • Most vulnerable: South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa and Argentina's Mauricio Macri are in tough positions heading into elections next year, while May faces constant speculation about her job security an uphill battle to get a Brexit deal by March.
  • Writing on the wall: Japan's Shinzo Abe is expected to step down in 2021. Merkel has now said she'll do the same — though she might not last that long.
  • Hard to gauge: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu could end up in jail, but Bloomberg's timeline suggests it's more likely he'll serve another term. Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari is in ill health but nonetheless favored to win another term next year. The verdict for Macron is that he's "unlikely to win re-election" in 2022 if his popularity doesn't improve.
  • Not leaving yet: The authors give Trump a strong chance of re-election. They also find it likely that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro will serve at least through 2024 — though that's far from guaranteed. Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 79, is "likely to be in power until he dies," and their calculations "suggest he’ll live another nine years."
  • Strongmen sticking around: Erdogan is likely to dominate Turkish politics through 2028, or even beyond, while Russia's Vladimir Putin is term limited but unlikely to simply fade away after 2024. Xi could be "leader for life."
  • Young autocrats with long futures: North Korea's Kim Jong-un is in his mid-30s. MBS' iron grip might be slipping, but at just 33 there's every chance he'll be in power for decades.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

How the tech stock selloff is hurting average Americans

Expand chart
Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals

Investors holding the ultra-popular Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index funds have been hard hit over the last two weeks as tech shares have been roiled by rising U.S. Treasury yields.

Why it matters: Even though the economy is growing and many U.S. stocks are performing well, most investors are seeing their wealth decline because major indexes no longer reflect the overall economy or even a broad swath of public companies — they reflect the performance of a few of the country's biggest companies.

1 hour ago - World

UN rights chief: At least 54 killed, 1,700 detained since Myanmar coup

A Feb. 7 protest in Yangon, Myanmar. Photo: Getty Images/Getty Images

Police and military officers in Myanmar have killed at least 54 people during anti-coup protests, while "arbitrarily" detaining over 1,700 people, United Nations Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet said Thursday.

Why it matters: Protesters have demonstrating across Myanmar for nearly a month, demanding the restoration of democracy after the country's military leaders overthrew its democratically elected government on Feb. 1.

3 hours ago - Health

The danger of a fourth wave

Expand chart
Data: The COVID Tracking Project, state health departments; Note: Anomalous Arkansas case data from Feb. 28 was not included in the calculated change; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The U.S. may be on the verge of another surge in coronavirus cases, despite weeks of good news.

The big picture: Nationwide, progress against the virus has stalled. And some states are ditching their most important public safety measures even as their outbreaks are getting worse.