Gang's all here at last year's G-20. They won't be forever. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/AFP/Getty Images

Five years from now, Germany's Angela Merkel and the U.K.'s Theresa May will have faded from the political scene, while Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and China's Xi Jinping will continue to dominate domestically and shape geopolitics.

The big picture: That's according to Bloomberg's World Leaders’ Political Health Check, which shows France's Emmanuel Macron and potentially Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) slipping over the past six months. Other prominent world leaders have held steady, with President Trump projected to carry on through 2024.

  • Most vulnerable: South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa and Argentina's Mauricio Macri are in tough positions heading into elections next year, while May faces constant speculation about her job security an uphill battle to get a Brexit deal by March.
  • Writing on the wall: Japan's Shinzo Abe is expected to step down in 2021. Merkel has now said she'll do the same — though she might not last that long.
  • Hard to gauge: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu could end up in jail, but Bloomberg's timeline suggests it's more likely he'll serve another term. Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari is in ill health but nonetheless favored to win another term next year. The verdict for Macron is that he's "unlikely to win re-election" in 2022 if his popularity doesn't improve.
  • Not leaving yet: The authors give Trump a strong chance of re-election. They also find it likely that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro will serve at least through 2024 — though that's far from guaranteed. Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 79, is "likely to be in power until he dies," and their calculations "suggest he’ll live another nine years."
  • Strongmen sticking around: Erdogan is likely to dominate Turkish politics through 2028, or even beyond, while Russia's Vladimir Putin is term limited but unlikely to simply fade away after 2024. Xi could be "leader for life."
  • Young autocrats with long futures: North Korea's Kim Jong-un is in his mid-30s. MBS' iron grip might be slipping, but at just 33 there's every chance he'll be in power for decades.

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Biden raises $141 million more than Trump

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks during a September campaign event in Wilmington, Delaware. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Joe Biden's campaign, the Democratic National Committee and joint fundraising committees raised $466 million cash on hand, the presidential candidate's team announced late Sunday.

Why it matters: President Trump's campaign raised $325 million, his campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh announced earlier Sunday.

Editor's note: This is a developing news story. Please check back for updates.

Virtual Emmys address chaotic year for American TV and society

Emmy Host Jimmy Kimmel during rehearsals Friday for the 72nd Annual Emmy Awards at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Photo: Al Seib/ Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

The Emmy Awards Sunday night addressed the major U.S. issues this year — including the protests on systemic racism and police brutality, the wildfires engulfing parts of the West Coast, the census, the pandemic, essential works and the election.

Why it matters: Award shows have always addressed wider cultural issues, but this year — amid unprecedented stress and uncertainty — that trend has accelerated.

Updated 51 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 11:30 p.m. ET: 30,919,638 — Total deaths: 959,332— Total recoveries: 21,152,996Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30p.m. ET: 6,799,141 — Total deaths: 199,474 — Total recoveries: 2,590,671 — Total tests: 95,108,559Map.
  3. Politics: Testing czar on Trump's CDC contradictions: "Everybody is right" Ex-FDA chief: Career scientists won't be "easily cowed" by political vaccine pressure.
  4. Education: What we overlooked in the switch to remote learning.
  5. Health: The dwindling chances of eliminating COVID-19 — 7 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week.
  6. World: England sets £10,000 fine for breaking self-isolation rules — The countries painting their pandemic recoveries green.