Affordable Care Act

The big picture

The Supreme Court could be Trump's ACA nightmare

The lawsuit could come to a head just before Election Day.

Mar 3, 2020 - Health
The ACA is doing fine without a mandate penalty

The success undercuts a lawsuit against the ACA.

Jan 14, 2020 - Health
The political risk of overturning the ACA

Swing states and red states would stand to lose the most.

Dec 20, 2019 - Health
Trump's all-or-nothing ACA gamble

We've seen this movie before — in 2012, at the Supreme Court.

Mar 27, 2019 - Health
Joe Biden's plan to make the ACA more affordable

Beefing up the law's subsidies will go a long way.

Sep 29, 2020 - Health
Biden on Supreme Court fight: "This is about whether or not the ACA will exist"

"This is about people's health care in the middle of a pandemic."

Sep 27, 2020 - Politics & Policy

All Affordable Care Act stories

Trump says Supreme Court ending Obamacare would be "a big WIN"

Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

President Trump on Sunday tweeted that the Supreme Court invalidating the Affordable Care Act would be "a big WIN for the USA!"

Why it matters: Democrats have argued that confirming a Trump-appointed justice to the Supreme Court would put the Affordable Care Act, which protects pre-existing conditions, in jeopardy. Trump's Supreme Court pick, Amy Coney Barrett, has written that she disagreed with Chief Justice John Roberts when he ruled to uphold the law.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
Sep 25, 2020 - Health

Trump's latest empty health care rhetoric on pre-existing conditions

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images.

President Trump issued an executive order on Thursday pledging to protect Americans with preexisting conditions — which is not only toothless but also is only necessary if a Trump-backed lawsuit successfully dismantles the Affordable Care Act.

Why it matters: The presidential election is a month and a half away, and Republicans learned the hard way in 2018 that threatening the ACA's preexisting conditions protections is politically perilous.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
Sep 24, 2020 - Health

Reopening the ACA debate is politically risky for GOP

Data: Kaiser Family Foundation, The Cook Political Report; Notes: Those losing insurance includes 2020 ACA marketplace enrollment and 2019 Medicaid expansion enrollment among newly-eligible enrollees. Close races are those defined as "Toss up" or "Lean R/D"; Table: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

The sudden uncertainty surrounding the future of the Affordable Care Act could be an enormous political liability for Republicans in key states come November.

Between the lines: Millions of people in crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds would lose their health care coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the law, as the Trump administration is urging it to.

Caitlin Owens, author of Vitals
Sep 22, 2020 - Health

Before Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, 2020 wasn't much of a health care election

Data: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll; Note: ±3.8% margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Health care wasn't the top issue heading into the 2020 election — and then Ruth Bader Ginsburg died.

Between the lines: This poll was conducted in the days before her death, which has significantly increased the threat to the Affordable Care Act and thus the threat to the law's pre-existing conditions protections.

Sep 21, 2020 - Health

If Trump replaces Ginsburg, the ACA really is at risk

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The Supreme Court vacancy created by Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death leaves the Affordable Care Act in much greater jeopardy than it was just a few days ago.

The big picture: Conventional wisdom had held that Chief Justice John Roberts would likely join with the court’s liberals to save the ACA once again. But if President Trump is able to fill Ginsburg’s former seat, Roberts’ vote alone wouldn’t be enough to do the trick, and the law — or big sections of it — is more likely to be struck down.

Sep 20, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Pelosi: Trump wants to "crush" ACA with Ginsburg replacement

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday that President Trump is rushing to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg because he "wants to crush the Affordable Care Act."

Why it matters: Pelosi wants to steer the conversation around the potential Ginsburg replacement to health care, which polls show is a top issue for voters, especially amid the coronavirus pandemic. The Trump administration has urged the courts to strike down the law, and with it, protections for millions with pre-existing conditions.

Trump says executive order on pre-existing conditions would be a "signal" on GOP stance

President Trump told reporters on Monday that his executive order to support insurers covering pre-existing conditions would be a "signal" to show Americans where Republicans stand on the issue.

Why it matters: The Trump administration is currently arguing before the Supreme Court that the Affordable Care Act — which enforces the policy that Trump is referencing — should be struck down.

Trump may lose swing voters by asking SCOTUS to strike down the ACA

Data: KFF; Graphic: Axios Visuals

President Trump’s decision to ask the Supreme Court to throw out the Affordable Care Act may alienate the independent voters who can swing the presidential election. That could be especially important in battleground states.

The big picture: Many of the ACA’s benefits are hugely popular with independents — even beyond protections for people with pre-existing conditions, which gets the most attention.

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