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Deep pumps installed on the Dutch border. Photo: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam/picture alliance via Getty Images

A pair of analyses are laying bare the divide between major oil companies and their smaller peers.

Driving the news: A new Rapidan Energy Group note explores plans by Democratic White House hopefuls to thwart oil-and-gas development on federal lands and waters.

  • A Democratic president "would likely halt virtually all new federal leases via executive order on day 1," they write, while also noting likely efforts — albeit ones less likely to be implemented — to block projects on existing leases.

Why it matters: These areas account for 24% of U.S. crude oil production, and Rapidan also notes that the policies would "negatively impact investor sentiment and plans for future growth on private lands."

What they're saying: This hardly affects everyone equally. "While Democrats like to swing at 'Big Oil' the washout of these policies would disproportionately impact smaller producers," Bob McNally, Rapidan's president, tells Axios.

Quick take: It's majors and huge independent players that have more options internationally if the U.S. playing field gets tougher, while they're also more equipped to handle new domestic regulations.

There's a growing shale patch divide between oil giants' appetite for growth and what's happening with smaller and independent players.

But, but, but: The majors aren't dealing with the same financial pressures and reliance on capital markets as independents. Last week's Q3 earnings presentations of Exxon and Chevron, which both have acquired lots of Permian acreage, show steep production increases there into the mid-2020s.

What they're saying: "IHS Markit does not see the current price environment as a threat to the majors’ shale plans — they will increasingly drive new Permian volumes," IHS analyst Raoul LeBlanc said. More broadly, they see the majors growing from roughly 15% of U.S. onshore production now to around 20% in 2023.

What's next: "Robust majors’ spending will increasingly drive incremental growth in the Permian. But it will not significantly offset the effect of the independents’ newfound austerity," he notes.

The big picture: On top of all of this, the big players are better equipped to navigate in a world that could become much more serious about reining in emissions.

  • The majors have been increasing their investments in areas like renewables and electricity services, EV charging, carbon removal, and more, although it's still a very small fraction of their overall fossil fuel business.
  • "Majors and large independents have the capacity to transition to becoming energy companies, not just oil and gas companies, more than other oil companies do," said Jason Bordoff, head of a Columbia University energy think tank.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

42 mins ago - Health

J&J CEO "absolutely" confident in vaccine distribution goals

Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky said Monday that he is "absolutely" confident that the company will be able to meet its distribution goals, which include 100 million doses by June and up to a billion by the end of 2021.

Driving the news: J&J is already in the process of shipping 3.9 million doses this week, just days after the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for the one-shot vaccine. Gorsky said he expects vaccines to be administered to Americans "literally within the next 24 to 48 hours."

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
1 hour ago - Economy & Business

Clash of the central bankers

Photo Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photos: Bloomberg, Samuel Corum (Stringer)/Getty Images

While Fed chair Jerome Powell is brushing off the seismic rise in government bond yields and a corresponding decline in stock prices, a group of central bankers in the Pacific are starting to take action.

Driving the news: Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament on Friday the BOJ would not allow yields on government debt to continue rising further above the BOJ's 0% target.

Biden expresses support for Amazon workers' union vote in Alabama

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

President Biden expressed support for a union vote by Amazon warehouse workers in Alabama in a two-minute video posted on Twitter Sunday, though he did not name the tech giant specifically.

Why it matters: A vote by workers at the Bessemer, Ala., warehouse to join the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union would make the facility the first Amazon warehouse to unionize in the U.S., per NPR. The election will run through March 29.