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GOP members whose voters have a lot to lose on Obamacare replacement

Dozens of Republicans in both the House and the Senate have publicly said they either oppose or are unsure about the House health care bill championed by Speaker Paul Ryan. While some of these members are hardline conservatives who say the bill is just Obamacare-lite, others represent states and districts that have seen the largest decreases in the uninsured rate under Obamacare.

We've mapped out the drop in the uninsured rate on both a state and county level between 2013 and 2016, or from the year before Obamacare was implemented until last year. We then looked at how this decrease in the uninsured rate compares with detractors (we used an excellent list compiled by the Washington Post). While there are some conservative exceptions, most of the wavering Republicans represent voters who could have a lot to lose.

Data: Enroll America, Civis Analytics; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon, Gerald Rich / Axios

Quick observations:

  • Many of these Republicans — especially in the House — oppose the House bill on ideological principle, saying it isn't conservative enough. This includes members of the House Freedom Caucus and Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.
  • Many states that have seen the largest drop in the uninsured rate expanded Medicaid. This could help explain some members' qualms about the House bill's Medicaid expansion phaseout and per-person funding cap.