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J Scott Applewhite / AP

After showering attention on conservatives, the healthcare whip team is shifting its focus to the moderates who worry Ryan's healthcare plan will hurt their elderly constituents.

Steve Scalise's whip team met with a couple dozen members of the Tuesday Group on Thursday, but these House moderates couldn't agree on what they'd need from leadership to get to "yes." They're fed up with being taken for granted on tough votes and they're worried that they'll take a tough vote for the team only to watch the bill die in the Senate.

The count: Everybody knows it's going to be extremely tight. A Freedom Caucus source says "short of some major change — which we are being told won't come — the bill does not have the votes." Leadership hopes pressure from Trump and Steve Bannon, who texts regularly with Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows, can sway conservative holdouts.

What's next: A full court press, with a mixture of public advocacy (Trump's rally in Kentucky tomorrow) and private cajoling. Vice President Pence and HHS Secretary Tom Price are making last-minute pitches to reluctant members. Price meets with conservative leaders tomorrow and key industry groups later in the week.

What's on the table: Leadership will likely offer more generous tax credits to seniors (as Paul Ryan suggested today) and are considering buying off moderates with a reserve fund that would be used in the Senate to boost up the tax credits. But that risks solidifying the remaining Freedom Caucus members against the bill.

Go deeper

USAID chief tests positive for coronavirus

An Air Force cargo jet delivers USAID supplies to Russia earlier this year. Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS via Getty Images

The acting administrator of the United States Agency for International Development informed senior staff Wednesday he has tested positive for coronavirus, two sources familiar with the call tell Axios.

Why it matters: John Barsa, who staffers say rarely wears a mask in their office, is the latest in a series of senior administration officials to contract the virus. His positive diagnosis comes amid broader turmoil at the agency following the election.

Bryan Walsh, author of Future
3 hours ago - Health

COVID-19 shows a bright future for vaccines

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Promising results from COVID-19 vaccine trials offer hope not just that the pandemic could be ended sooner than expected, but that medicine itself may have a powerful new weapon.

Why it matters: Vaccines are, in the words of one expert, "the single most life-saving innovation ever," but progress had slowed in recent years. New gene-based technology that sped the arrival of the COVID vaccine will boost the overall field, and could even extend to mass killers like cancer.

5 hours ago - Health

Beware a Thanksgiving mirage

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Don't be surprised if COVID metrics plunge over the next few days, only to spike next week.

Why it matters: The COVID Tracking Project warns of a "double-weekend pattern" on Thanksgiving — where the usual weekend backlog of data is tacked on to a holiday.