Goldman Sachs believes there is a 50% chance that the federal government will experience a short shutdown next month, according to a note sent out today by firm economist Alec Phillips. Per CNBC:
Presidential approval continues to decline, and is the lowest for any first-term president in his first year in office. Low approval ratings raise legislative risks. In the near term, we believe there is a 50% chance of a brief government shutdown, as the president seeks to solidify support among his base by embracing more controversial positions.