Feb 24, 2017

Goldman is bearish on Obamacare repeal

Richard Drew / AP

Republicans may say Obamacare repeal is on track, but Goldman Sachs doesn't believe them.

In a note to its clients, the mega-financial firm notes that "none of the several approaches that have been floated appear able to win a majority in the Senate," and predicts that the most likely outcome is a bill that "modifies the tax credits under the law for health insurance coverage and increases state flexibility under Medicaid."

The firm's other predictions:

  • The individual and employer mandates will go away.
  • The law's taxes might be repealed, but maybe not retroactively.
  • The "Cadillac tax" on generous health plans might just be modified, so it turns into a limit on the tax break for employer health coverage.
  • Medicaid will probably be solved with more flexibility and a gradual equalizing of funds between the states.
  • The Medicare payment cuts probably will stay in place.
  • Insurance rule changes, like allowing health plans to charge more to older customers, are unlikely.

The note adds, however, that the outcome "is as hard to predict as any legislative issue we can recall."

Go deeper

Updated 49 mins ago - Health

World coronavirus updates

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Axios Visuals

India extended its nationwide lockdown — one of the longest-running in the world — on Saturday, as deaths and infections rise, per Johns Hopkins. The country also moved to allow restaurants, hotels and churches outside of hotspots to begin reopening.

By the numbers: Nearly 6 million people have tested positive for COVID-19 worldwide and over 2.5 million have recovered from the virus. Over 367,000 people have died globally. The U.S. has reported the most cases in the world with over 1.7 million.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

In photos: Protesters clash with police nationwide over George Floyd

Police officers grapple with protesters in Atlanta. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

Police used tear gas, rubber bullets and pepper spray as the protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd spread nationwide on Friday evening and continued into Saturday.

The big picture: Police responded over the weekend in force, in cities ranging from Salt Lake City to Atlanta to Des Moines, Houston to Detroit, Milwaukee to Washington, D.C., Denver and Louisville. Large crowds gathered in Minneapolis on Saturday for the fourth day in a row.

Updated 2 hours ago - Science

Live updates: SpaceX launches NASA astronauts to space station

Photo: NASA TV

SpaceX just launched NASA astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken on an historic ride to the International Space Station.

Why it matters: The launch brings crewed launches back to the U.S. for the first time in nine years, since the end of the space shuttle program.

Follow along below for live updates...