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A vintage postcard for Ironwood, Mich., located in Gogebic County. Photo: Found Image Holdings/Corbis via Getty Images

Political junkies know Macomb County, Mich. But Gogebic?! Located in the Upper Peninsula, it will cast a tiny amount of votes, but went for President Trump in 2016 and a Democratic ticket in 2018 and looks like the state’s political median in the age of Trump.

What's happening: Third Way, the center-left think tank, is out with "Bellwether Counties 2020," isolating 21 counties in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well as the Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina.

  • Why it matters, from David de la Fuente, who wrote the report: These counties may be the best indication leading up to November, and even on election night, of which way a state will tip.

About half of the bellwethers are mostly suburban, or in an urban county with heavy suburban influence.

Go deeper

Pennsylvania GOP asks Supreme Court to halt mail-in ballot extension

Applications for mail-in ballots in Reading, Pennsylvania. Photo: Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images

Republicans in Pennsylvania on Monday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to halt a major state court ruling that extended the deadlines for mail-in ballots to several days after the election, The Morning Call reports.

Why it matters: It's the first election-related test for the Supreme Court since the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and could decide the fate of thousands of ballots in a crucial swing state that President Trump won in 2016. What the court decides could signal how it would deal with similar election-related litigation in other states.

Texas AG sues Biden administration over deportation freeze

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to members of the media in 2016. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing the Biden administration in federal district court over its 100-day freeze on deporting unauthorized immigrants, and he's asking for a temporary restraining order.

Between the lines: The freeze went into effect Friday, temporarily halting most immigration enforcement in the U.S. In the lawsuit, Paxton claims the move "violates the U.S. Constitution, federal immigration and administrative law, and a contractual agreement between Texas" and the Department of Homeland Security.

Dan Primack, author of Pro Rata
1 hour ago - Podcasts

Carbon Health's CEO on unsticking the vaccine bottleneck

President Biden has said that getting Americans vaccinated for COVID-19 is his administration’s top priority given an initial rollout plagued by organizational, logistical and technical glitches.

Axios Re:Cap digs into the bottlenecks and how to unclog them with Carbon Health chief executive Eren Bali, whose company recently began helping to manage vaccinations in Los Angeles.