We’re just 44 years away from “peak human” — when the world’s population will begin to decrease, according to new projections published in The Lancet.

Breaking it down: By 2100, the populations of China, Japan and Italy are expected to be half of what they are today, while sub-Saharan Africa will be home to three times as many people.

  • This forecast puts the global population in 2100 some 2 billion below the UN’s estimate of 11 billion, with the peak also expected much sooner.
  • It factors in greater decreases in fertility rates due to increased access to education and contraception.
  • Immigration patterns and climate change will change the outlook, the authors note.
  • As birth rates fall and life expectancies climb, the world's population will get much older.

The big picture: The global population rose over the last 80 years from around 2.3 billion to 7.8 billion. If that rate of growth continued for another 80 years, it would rise to 26 billion by the turn of the next century.

  • Instead, if these forecasts hold up, we’ll be on the downslope from the global peak.

Worth noting: Some of the spikes projected in Africa by 2100 are mind-boggling. Niger's rise from 21 million to 185 million is like starting with New York state and then adding California, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas, plus all of Canada, over the course of 80 years.

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Jul 27, 2020 - World

The U.S. has an international image problem

Data: Gallup; Map: Naema Ahmed/Axios

America has an image problem. A Gallup poll of 135 countries finds virtually equivalent rates of approval for U.S. (median of 33%), Chinese (32%) and Russian (30%) global leadership.

Breaking it down: The U.S. approval rate is down from 48% in 2016, and it slides even lower among democratic allies like Canada (20%) and Germany (12%). Any significant improvements, the report notes, have tended to come in "some of the world's least democratic societies."

The U.S. is now playing by China's internet rules

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Trump's crackdown on TikTok suggests that the U.S. government is starting to see the internet more like China does — as a network that countries can and should control within their borders.

The big picture: Today's global internet has split into three zones, according to many observers: The EU's privacy-focused network; China's government-dominated network; and the U.S.-led network dominated by a handful of American companies. TikTok's fate suggests China's model has U.S. fans as well.

GOP plans "nightly surprise" for revamped convention

President Trump at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Photo: Bill Clark/Getty Images

The reworked Republican National Convention will be a four-night spectacle including still-under-wraps venues, a 10 p.m. "nightly surprise" and guests and themes playing to "the forgotten men and women of America," two senior Trump campaign officials involved tell Axios.

Driving the news: The messaging will focus heavily on "very granular details" of what a second term for President Trump would look like — answering a question Trump left hanging in a Fox News event earlier this summer — and attack cancel culture, "radical elements" of society and threats to public safety.