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We’re just 44 years away from “peak human” — when the world’s population will begin to decrease, according to new projections published in The Lancet.

Breaking it down: By 2100, the populations of China, Japan and Italy are expected to be half of what they are today, while sub-Saharan Africa will be home to three times as many people.

  • This forecast puts the global population in 2100 some 2 billion below the UN’s estimate of 11 billion, with the peak also expected much sooner.
  • It factors in greater decreases in fertility rates due to increased access to education and contraception.
  • Immigration patterns and climate change will change the outlook, the authors note.
  • As birth rates fall and life expectancies climb, the world's population will get much older.

The big picture: The global population rose over the last 80 years from around 2.3 billion to 7.8 billion. If that rate of growth continued for another 80 years, it would rise to 26 billion by the turn of the next century.

  • Instead, if these forecasts hold up, we’ll be on the downslope from the global peak.

Worth noting: Some of the spikes projected in Africa by 2100 are mind-boggling. Niger's rise from 21 million to 185 million is like starting with New York state and then adding California, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas, plus all of Canada, over the course of 80 years.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Sep 30, 2020 - Economy & Business

Why the real estate boom could keep going for years

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Even after reaching all-time high average prices and sales numbers not seen since the height of the 2000s boom, the housing market still has lots of room to run, experts say.

What's happening: There were fears in late 2019 and early this year that price levels had outpaced income growth and become unsustainable — but record-low mortgage rates and promises by the Fed to keep U.S. interest rates at zero through at least 2023 have lit a new fire under the market.

Biden to sign executive orders focused on women's rights

President Biden. Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images

President Biden will sign executive orders Monday establishing a Gender Policy Council and directing the Department of Education to review the federal law Title IX, according to administration officials.

Why it matters: The Biden administration is signaling its priorities to advance gender equity and equality as women, particularly women of color, have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

3 hours ago - World

Report: U.S. calls for UN-led Afghan peace talks

Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the State Department in Washington, D.C., in February. Photo: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a letter outlining a plan to accelerate peace talks with the Taliban that the U.S. is "considering" a full troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, Afghan outlet TOLOnews first reported Sunday.

Why it matters: In the letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, also obtained by Western news outlets, Blinken expresses concern that the Taliban "could make rapid territorial gain" after an American military withdrawal, even with the continuation of U.S. financial aid, as he urges him to embrace his proposal.