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Happy Friday! Quick note: The inaugural issue of the Axios Science newsletter dropped yesterday. It's great. You can sign up here to get Axios Science in your inbox every Thursday. Ok, let's head for the weekend . . .

Rise of the machines

Giphy

The analysts at Wolfe Research are out with the first installment of their "Journey to the End of the Oil Age" series.

The big idea: One part of Wolfe's lengthy report is a thought-provoking analysis of when and how electric vehicles might really, really take off. The conclusion? By becoming more like iPhones and less like cars.

Crystal ball: Basically, they forecast no medium-term collapse in U.S. gasoline demand (which accounts for nearly half of all U.S. oil use).

But after 2025, things could get really interesting. They see autonomous cars, electrification, and digital connection converging into such a new system that it will be like the ultimate "killer app"— one that transforms the business and consumer equations that have thus far held EVs to a tiny market share.

In their words: "Like other Killer Apps, such as the smartphone, consumers will feel a strong desire to upgrade from old to new, regardless of price relative to the old tech. This will be a step-change in consumer experience."

  • "Automakers...will be highly motivated to sell (unlike current EVs), because the digitally-connected ecosystem and data collection of each unit could hold more revenue opportunity than the initial vehicle sale itself — some estimates are as high as 10x the revenue over the vehicle life."

Bottom line: The report models several adoption scenarios for this "new travel ecosystem." The fastest adoption scenario cuts U.S. gasoline demand in half by around 2033.

My conversation with Rep. Shimkus

GOP Rep. John Shimkus is chairman of the environment subcommittee under the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee. He chatted with me at his Capitol Hill office earlier this week. Some takeaways...

Yucca Mountain: He wants to get legislation to revive the long-stalled nuclear waste repository through the House before the August break, and said there's "no reticence" among leadership.

  • Shimkus knows Yucca faces big hurdles amid opposition in Nevada, but says that "you can pick up bits and pieces of some interest" in the state too.

Ethanol: Shimkus still wants to convene bipartisan talks to seek agreement on changes to the controversial Renewable Fuel Standard. But actual negotiations "have not begun."

Superfund: EPA administrator Scott Pruitt has signaled that he wants to prioritize waste cleanup and Shimkus is hopeful it will happen (though President Donald Trump's proposed budget would cut funding).

  • "I think a lot of Democrats — if [Pruitt] focuses on getting the job done — will appreciate his streamlining the process and really getting to the point of the problem, and trying to fix the problem. Because you can't defend these delays," Shimkus said.
  • Shimkus is interested in working with EPA on potential legislative changes to aid cleanups.

Paris: Amid the internal White House debate, he's leaning toward the side that favors withdrawing from the climate deal, saying he's not a fan of joining international pacts using executive authority.

"The majority of members of the House Republicans would not cry if we left the Paris accords. I think it would be a large majority of our conference," he said.

The Permian engine roars

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is out with a helpful, reader-friendly snapshot of oil-and-gas data and trends in the region, including the red-hot Permian Basin region of Texas and New Mexico.

Why it matters: The Permian's beehive of activity is a big reason why U.S. production didn't sink further during the price doldrums and why it's moving steadily up toward record levels.

Go deeper: The report notes that the Permian now accounts for nearly 40 percent of the active U.S. drilling rigs.

In their words: "Better economics and higher interest due to the region's favorable geology have likely contributed to the rise; many shale formations in the Permian are stacked, making it efficient to drill into different reservoirs from the same location."

Earth is very warm again in 2017

NOAA

Newly released federal data suggests the planet is on track for another extremely warm year.

The findings: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the global land and ocean surface temps from January-April was the second highest such period since records began in 1880, trailing only 2016, and was 0.95°C above the 20th century average.

Why it matters: because global warming.

Let's turn it over to Mashable's science expert Andrew Freedman, who looked at the new NOAA data alongside new NASA data on Arctic warmth fueling high temperatures in April.

"The new findings illustrate how the planet is still setting climate milestones even in the absence of other factors that tend to elevate global air and sea temperatures, such as an El Niño event," Freedman writes.

From Amy’s notebook: conservative climate hires

My Axios colleague Amy Harder reports...

A conservative group, which is pushing a long-shot bid at getting Washington to back a carbon tax, keeps beefing up its ranks.

Exclusive: After launching in February with elder GOP statesmen like James Baker, Henry Paulson, and George Schultz, the Climate Leadership Council has quickly hired several people, including two more this week: Jill Sigal, a top official in President George W. Bush's Energy Department; and, Taiya Smith, who worked with Paulson at the Treasury Department under Bush.

Liberal TED? Speaking of the CLC, its president and founder Ted Halstead gave a TED Talk that posted online this week, which apparently is popular among liberals only.

After Halstead gave his 10-minute pitch (tax carbon emissions, return the money to the public, and scuttle climate regulations), TED curator Chris Anderson returned to the stage during the applause and said: "I'm actually not sure I've seen a conservative getting a standing O at TED before, that's pretty cool."

Reality check: Most of the support for climate policy rests within the Democratic Party, but Halstead and his group are nonetheless confident in their uphill battle.

Roundup: BP personnel moves, OPEC, Paris, and Russia

People: Geoff Morrell, a familiar name in journalism and energy circles, has been promoted to BP's group head of communications and external affairs, based in London.

Morrell is currently the energy giant's senior VP for U.S. communications and external affairs. The former Pentagon spokesman and journalist has been with BP since 2011, and said he's "honored and excited" about the new role that starts in August.

Stepping into Morrell's shoes in the top U.S. role will be Mary Streett, who is currently the company's head of U.S. government affairs.

Paris: Shell CEO Ben van Beurden is pretty outspoken as far as big oil CEOs go, and he's back at it with this NPR interview, where he makes the case for the U.S. staying in the Paris climate accord.

  • "Van Beurden argues CEOs have a responsibility to speak out against industry organizations that support politicians who deny the existence of climate change," NPR reports.

OPEC: Reuters looks at the cartel's behind-the-scenes planning for next week's meeting, where hotly anticipated decisions about extending the production-cutting agreement are expected.

Russia: The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. officials are looking into Russia's influence over Citgo Petroleum Corp., a move that arrives "amid heightened concern that the Kremlin is seeking to use energy as a political weapon against the U.S."

Thanks for reading! Next week should bring some interesting moments on Capitol Hill. President Trump's two nominees for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, as well as his pick for the number two Energy Department position, appear before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee on Thursday.

Confidential tips and feedback are always welcome at ben@axios.com. Have a great weekend.

Featured

Uber gets competitive in the food-delivery service

McDonald's ordered through the Postmates service. Photo: Chandice Choi/AP

Along with the development of ride-sharing services came food-delivery services: ordering food through an app and having it delivered to your door. The New York Times cited a study by McKinsey that found food delivery "is a $100 billion-plus market, or about 1 percent of the total food market." And Uber wants a piece of that market.

Key numbers: UberEats is available in more than 120 markets around the world. The number of trips for UberEats drivers grew more than 24 times in one year, and by last July it was "profitable in 27 of the 108 cities where it operated," per NYT.

UberEats "sometimes eclipses Uber's main ride-hailing business in markets like Tokyo; Taipei, Taiwan; and Seoul, South Korea," the company told NYT.

But as UberEats continues to thrive, competition looms large:

  • Postmates has raised over $250 million since it started and the company makes 2.5 million deliveries each month. Like UberEats, Postmates is a full delivery service system.
  • Grubhub has "an active base of 8.17 million customers," and Matt Maloney, the company's founder, told the Times their sole focus on take-out ordering sets them apart.
Featured

Price will stop using taxpayer-funded private jets

Trump and HHS Secretary Tom Price arrive on Capitol Hill to rally support on health-care reform. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price has racked up more than $400,000 after using a private jet to embark on his taxpayer-funded travels, Politico found. Now, Politico reports that Price will stop using a private jet for these travels because "We've heard the concerns. We take that very seriously and have taken it to heart," Price told Fox & Friends earlier today.

What's next: His department's inspector general will review his travel and the associated costs, and a decision will be made after that review is complete. A federal contract noted that Price cost taxpayers at least $65,000 in the last week alone, Politico notes.

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Golden State Warriors will not visit the White House

A rally to celebrate the Golden State Warriors' NBA basketball championship. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

After Trump called out Stephen Curry in a tweet this morning (rescinding his invitation to the White House), his team stood with him and announced they will not be attending the White House visit at all.

"While we intended to meet as a team at the first opportunity we had this morning to collaboratively discuss a potential visit to the White House," the statement read, "we accept President Trump has made it clear that we are not invited."

"We believe there is nothing more American than our citizens having the right to express themselves freely on matters important to them," the statement continued. "We're disappointed that we did not have an opportunity during this process to share our views or have an open dialogue on issues impacting our communities that we felt would be important to raise.

Big picture, from Axios' Mike Allen: Trump is wading into culturally sensitive territory that could freshen opposition elsewhere, and ignite a debate wholly unrelated to anything he's trying to accomplish.

Go deeper: Trump vs. Curry, LeBron and pro athletes.

Featured

N. Korea: strike on U.S. is "inevitable"

In this unverified image from the North Korean government, Kim Jong-un is said to inspect loading of a hydrogen bomb into an ICBM, at unknown location (Korean Central News Agency / Korea News Service, via AP)

North Korea's foreign minister said today a strike on the U.S. is "inevitable," just after it was revealed that there were American fighter jets flying over the seas of North Korea.

"None other than Trump himself is on a suicide mission" and said that Trump's insults against North Korea and its leader make "our rocket's visit to the entire U.S. mainland inevitable all the more."

Context: Trump called Kim Jong-un "Rocket Man" in a recent tweet, which he restated during his UN speech, saying "Rocket Man" is "on a suicide mission."

North Korea's foreign minister shot back at Trump, saying POTUS has "turned the White House into a noisy marketing place full of crackling sounds of abacus beads and now he has tried to turn the U.N. arena into a gangsters' nest where money is respected and bloodshed is the order of the day."

Featured

Mexico hit with massive aftershock from earthquake

A woman attends an outdoor Catholic Mass near the school that collapsed during the earthquake in Mexico City. Photo: Rebecca Blackwell/AP

An aftershock of the 8.1-magnitude earthquake earlier this month went through the southern state Oaxaca this morning, measured at a magnitude of 6.1, according to the Associated Press.

Why it matters: Mexico is still recovering from the 7.1 quake on Tuesday that killed over 300 people. This is the third one this month. A resident of one of the cities hit by the earthquake on Sept. 7, Nataniel Hernandez, told the AP that Saturday's tremor is "one of the strongest movements he has felt" since then, but that "it has not stopped shaking."


Featured

American fighter jet flies over North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, right, and Choe Ryong Hae, vice-chairman of the central committee of the Workers' Party, Photo: Wong Maye-E/AP

The Pentagon reported B-1B bombers from Guam and F-15 fighter escorts from Okinawa, Japan, have flown over the waters of east North Korea, the "farthest north of the Demilitarized Zone...any American fighter or bomber has flown this century," the Associated Press reports.

Why it matters: Dana White, Defense Department spokeswoman, said it was a "demonstration of U.S. resolve and a clear message" that Trump "has many military options to defeat any threat."

Go deeper: The psychological profile of Kim Jong-un, and how he and his "massive ego...reacts harshly and sometimes lethally to insults and perceived slights."

Featured

Trump: NFL players shouldn't "disrespect" our flag

Photo: AP

After numerous professional athletes tweeted about Trump (who made offensive remarks about the NFL and its players who kneel during the national anthem), he kept the conversation going:

Featured

Iran tested a ballistic missile

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sits before addressing the United Nations General Assembly. Photo: Jason DeCrow / AP

Iran unveiled its latest ballistic missile Friday and said it tested it today, Reuters reports. State television carried footage of the test. Iran said it is capable of carrying multiple warheads, of flying 2,000 km is capable of hitting parts of the Middle East, including Israel, a key American ally, per the AP.

The Trump effect: This is a challenge to Trump, since Trump signed a bill imposing penalties on those involved in Tehran's ballistic missile program last month. (The U.S. has said Tehran's tests violate a UN resolution endorsing the Iran nuclear deal.)

Iran's defense minister said "we will certainly not be the least affected by any threats and we won't ask anyone's permission" about its missile program.

Context:

  • Trump said this week he has "decided" whether to exit the Iran nuclear deal, but wouldn't reveal the decision.
  • Iranian president Hassan Rouhani said earlier this week if Trump follows through on his threats to nix the nuclear deal, America would pay "such a high cost."

The Trump administration re-approved sanctions waivers for Iran as part of the nuclear deal last week. The deadline to re-certify the deal as a whole is coming mid-October.

Go deeper: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Iran may be honoring technical aspects of the deal

Featured

Scott Pruitt met regularly with industry lobbyists

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt speaks to the media during the daily briefing. Photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP

Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt has made decisions that benefit certain lobbying groups — soon after meeting with the corporate executives that represent them, according to his schedule obtained by the Washington Post.

Why it matters: While WaPo reports that Pruitt met with three public-health and environmental advocates, the meetings with industry advocates far outweighed them.

Mining, automobile, and fossil fuel executives are some of the big groups Pruitt has met with. Before relaxing Obama-era automobile fuel-efficiency standards, he met with General Motors, Ford Motor Co., and the "industry's lobbying arm" Auto Alliance. He met with the biggest commercial truck "glider" manufacturer in the U.S. before announcing he would "revisit an October 2016 decision to apply greenhouse gas emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks to gliders."


Featured

Steve Bannon to headline Roy Moore rally in Alabama

Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

Steve Bannon is heading to Alabama Sunday night to rally for Judge Roy Moore on Monday night with Phil Robertson of Duck Dynasty.

Why it matters: This rally is three days after President Trump, Bannon's former boss, was in Alabama rallying for Moore's opponent — Mitch McConnell's favored candidate Luther Strange. For Bannon to make a rare public appearance in such close proximity to Trump shows how invested he is in this race specifically, and attacking McConnell more generally. Another former White House adviser, Sebastian Gorka, rallied with Sarah Palin for Moore on Thursday.

From a source close to Bannon: "Steve is coming to Alabama to support President Trump against the Washington establishment and Mitch McConnell. Steve views Judge Moore as a fierce advocate of Trump and the values he campaigned on."
Allies of Strange and Republicans close to the White House dispute that premise, and Trump points out Strange offered his support for Obamacare repeal with no strings attached, whereas Roy Moore has said he won't support anything less than full repeal.
Trump last night seemed conflicted about his Strange endorsement, suggesting he'd made a mistake and would support Moore if he wins. Moore leads Strange by 9 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
"I'll be honest, I might have made a mistake... If his opponent wins, I'm going to be here campaigning like hell for him." — President Trump on Friday night
Breitbart has gone all in for Moore and is doing its national radio show on Sirius XM from Alabama today through Wednesday.

Multiple senior Breitbart editors are in Alabama, including Washington editor Matthew Boyle, London editor Raheem Kassam, the editor-in-chief of Breitbart London, and Jeff Poor, an Alabama native and the head of Breitbart TV.

"As of now, everyone is working on the Alabama race," Boyle wrote in a Breitbart Slack channel, per CNN's Oliver Darcy. "If anyone has any questions please let me know."