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Good morning and welcome to week three of Generate! That's about how long we've been waiting for Donald Trump's planned executive order against Obama-era climate policies to materialize. Is this the day (or the week)? We'll see. Here's what else is going on . . .

Bill Gates meets Donald Trump today

The billionaire tech pioneer and philanthropist will be at the White House this morning. The agenda is kind of vague but we'll be watching for signs that it touches on a longtime Gates obsession: robust R&D into breakthrough clean energy tech.

Why it matters: The meeting arrives just days after Trump proposed a budget that would deeply slash Energy Department spending and end support outright for DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy. Gates, via his foundation, has bashed the budget plan for several reasons.

  • Flashback: Gates told Axios's Ina Fried very recently that he's going to push the Trump administration and Congress to maintain U.S. leadership in clean energy.

Capitol Hill lightning round

Giphy

Here's a few things I've got my eyes peeled for this week in Congress …

  • Oil-and-gas climate rules: The Senate might take up a House-passed plan to kill Obama-era Interior Dept. regs to cut methane emissions from oil-and-gas operations on federal lands. GOP Sen. Rob Portman is a swing vote that people are watching.
  • Neil Gorsuch: Trump's SCOTUS pick faces the Senate Judiciary Committee on Monday. Will he get a climate question? The high court has already given EPA power to regulate carbon emissions, but new EPA chief Scott Pruitt has been questioning how much Clean Air Act leeway EPA has over power plants.
  • Offshore drilling: Hard to believe that BP's Deepwater Horizon catastrophe is almost seven years old. A House Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee gathers Tuesday to explore "deficiencies" at the Interior Department's offshore drilling safety branch that was totally overhauled after the spill.

What the executive order (probably) won’t say

Let's get the standing reminder done: Very soon, the White House is slated to issue an executive order or memo that will seek to scuttle big pieces of Obama's climate policy. Some of this can happen fast, like lifting the public lands coal leasing freeze, but unwinding EPA power plant rules will take a long time.

Ok! My sources suggest the executive order will not wage a frontal assault on climate change science. Despite Trump's well-known skepticism and EPA chief Scott Pruitt's break with the scientific consensus on carbon, they don't expect the order to wade into the topic.

  • Instead, look for any throat-clearing policy rationale (many executive orders have that kind of chatter upfront) to focus on economics and regulatory burdens, and maybe make the case that Obama's EPA took liberties with the Clean Air Act.
Why it matters: If there's indeed nothing questioning mainstream climate science, it suggests the administration doesn't want that topic front and center in its battles over climate and enegy policy.

Coal’s comeback is a longshot

Two stories caught my eye that help explain why Trump's pledge to revive the U.S. coal industry is such a heavy lift. A lengthy piece that fronts Sunday's Washington Post biz section says some good signs—higher prices, a boost in deliveries—probably won't change underlying trends. Why?

  • The big open-pit mines where the industry is focused in Wyoming and elsewhere need fewer workers than Appalachian mines.
  • Cheap gas, cheap gas, cheap gas from the fracking bom.
  • Softer than expected Asian demand.
  • Trump has shown "no signs" of backing big federal cash for climate-friendly coal tech.
The Financial Times, meanwhile, quotes the International Energy Agency chief predicting that Trump's plans to ease infrastructure permitting could boost U.S. gas exports further, creating a drag on Chinese and Indian coal needs.

Trump’s multi-dimensional auto gambit

An interesting scoop from our own Jonathan Swan signals that Trump's interest in auto markets and policy goes beyond his high-profile announcement that he's probably rolling back tough Obama-era efficiency rules.

  • He reports: "Senior White House officials are quietly preparing to confront China over what they consider unfair practices in the auto industry. It's a move that could profoundly disrupt relations between the superpowers."
Check out the whole story here.

Palace intrigue at EPA

EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is "bristling" at the presence of one of Donald Trump's political appointees at the agency, the Washington Post reports. Trump's man at EPA is Trump campaign official and former Washington State senator Don Benton.

Scene and heard: the Post says Benton chatters so much during policy meetings that he's no longer invited to many of them. "One of the officials described the situation as akin to an episode of the HBO comedy series 'Veep.'"

One cool thing

National Geographic's photo of the day this morning is cool but kind of vertigo-inducing.

Thanks for reading! Getting all our newsletters in your inbox each day is easy and free. You can sign up here. And needless to say your tips and feedback are always welcome at ben@axios.com. Look for more energy and climate change coverage each day in the Axios stream, and we'll you see again early tomorrow morning.

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Graham-Cassidy could delay tax reform rollout

Sen. Lindsey Graham speaks at the Capitol last week. Photo: Andrew Harnik / AP

Administration officials have been debating whether to delay the tax rollout until the first week of October to clear space for the Graham-Cassidy health care bill. Sources with direct knowledge tell me no final decisions have been made as of Wednesday afternoon, but Trump has been impatient for tax reform to begin so he may not tolerate any more delays.

Why it matters: Sources involved say the plan is still to roll out tax reform next week, but some officials are wringing their hands about the health care bill — the Senate could vote as early as Wednesday — ruining tax reform's launch week by sucking all of the attention away from tax.

Why it's happening: Trump wants tax reform on schedule, but the Senate is running out of days to use reconciliation to change elements of the Affordable Care Act. Meanwhile, there is concern of potential leaks from the upcoming House Ways and Means Committee retreat, and the "Big Six" that's negotiating the plan has yet to decide what to put in the document that will guide tax reform.

  • An administration official told me the White House invited Big Six communications and coalitions teams to the Roosevelt Room on Wednesday afternoon to discuss what a rollout of tax reform would look like.
  • The group is still operating under the assumption that the rollout will happen next week as originally planned.
The "Big Six": House Ways and Means Committee chairman Kevin Brady, House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Finance Committee chairman Orrin Hatch, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn.
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Mueller's probe shifts to Trump's presidency

Robert Mueller testifies on Capitol Hill in 2013. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has sent the White House a request for documents pertaining to some of President Trump's most controversial moves in office, per a report from The New York Times. The news suggests that at least part of the Russia probe is focused directly on Trump's time as president.

What Mueller wants: Trump's meeting with high-ranking Russian officials in the Oval Office the day after Comey's firing; the events leading to the firing of Michael Flynn; and the White House's response to questions from NYT about Donald Trump Jr.'s Trump Tower meeting with Russian officials.

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Artificial intelligence pioneer calls for the breakup of Big Tech

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Yoshua Bengio, the artificial intelligence pioneer, says the centralization of wealth, power and capability in Big Tech is "dangerous for democracy" and that the companies should be broken up.

Why it matters: Bengio is a professor at the University of Montreal and a member of the three-man "Canadian Mafia" that pioneered machine learning, the leading method used in AI. His remarks are notable because of his influence in the AI community and because he or his peers all either directly lead or consult for Big Tech's AI programs. Says Bengio: "Concentration of wealth leads to concentration of power. That's one reason why monopoly is dangerous. It's dangerous for democracy."

The AI pioneers: Bengio consults for IBM and his colleagues Geoffrey Hinton consults for Google and Yann LeCun for Facebook. Ruslan Salakhutdinov, a protege of Hinton's, runs Apple's AI research effort.

Benigo said the concentration of resources, talent and knowledge among giant tech companies is only increasing and governments must act. "We need to create a more level playing field for people and companies," Bengio told Axios at an AI conference in Toronto last week.

In recent years, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft have amassed a towering lead in AI research. But now, they are subject to growing scrutiny because of their outsized influence on society, politics and the economy. I asked Bengio if the companies should be broken up. He harrumphed and responded that anti-trust laws should be enforced. "Governments have become so meek in front of companies," he said.

"AI is a technology that naturally lends itself to a winner take all," Bengio said. "The country and company that dominates the technology will gain more power with time. More data and a larger customer base gives you an advantage that is hard to dislodge. Scientists want to go to the best places. The company with the best research labs will attract the best talent. It becomes a concentration of wealth and power."

When some of the young people gathered around him looked a bit dejected, Bengio responded, "Don't despair — fight."

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After summer of historic lows, Trump's popularity improves

Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

After several months of reaching record-lows in approval, new polls are showing President Trump's ratings beginning to climb upwards, according to Politico.

  • POLITICO/Morning Consult: 39% last month vs. 43% this week
  • Gallup: 35% last month vs. 38% last week
  • RealClearPolitics average: 37.4% August 14 vs. 39.9% September 20

How it happened: Politico reports Trump's responses to hurricanes Irma and Harvey helped his approval, after his ratings taking a over Charlottesville. Also, while his decision to end DACA was unpopular, he gained momentum from his negotiation with Sen. Schumer and Rep. Pelosi. But, his "popularity still remains historically low for a first-year president."

Other findings: Trump's upward trend over the past month is bigger with independents (+5%) than Republicans or Democrats (both +2%).

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Howard Schultz: Companies need to balance profit and conscience

AP

Howard Schultz, who rose from the projects in Brooklyn to create Starbucks, is making it a personal mission to find jobs for some of the least-advantaged and, in his view, most deserving in the United States: veterans and their families, refugees, and, with a job fair today, young people who are neither going to school nor working.

Why it matters: Schultz and his partners are attempting to pull a much-overlooked segment of U.S. society into the work force at a time that public hostility is driven in large part by low and stagnant salaries, and deep pockets of joblessness in inner cities and rust belts.

We caught up with Schultz at the Convention Center in downtown Washington, DC, where Starbucks and about a dozen other companies were conducting interviews with some 1,800 job-seekers aged 16 to 24 years old, seeking to hire as many as possible on the spot, and others over the coming months.

The background: The official national unemployment rate is just 4.4%, but we all know that statistic camouflages a world of misery: Among it is an 11.7% jobless rate for people 16 to 24 — those trying to just get started — and worse for black youths (14.6%) and Latinos (11.9%). Between the lines are young people who have dropped out of school, are jobless, have a criminal record, or are a parent.

Schultz's organization is attempting to attack the whole crippling system. Downstairs from where we spoke, there was a place for job applicants to leave their child while they were interviewed; a place to type up a quick resume; a place to put on a tie and jacket; and one for makeup. For those hired on the spot, there was advice for finding a place to stay, for public transportation, and child care. Companies, Schultz said, need to find "a balance between profit and conscience."

A need for "truthfulness": Regardless of what I asked in our quick, 15-minute chat, Schultz kept returning to what he said the country sorely needs — civility and respect toward one another. "There is a need for more truth and more transparency, not only because of Donald Trump becoming president," he said. "We've needed that for some time. There is a great need for servant leadership and truthfulness."

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Fed to begin reversing its huge stimulus program

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress. Photo: Pablo Martinez / AP

The Federal Reserve will begin selling off the government debt and mortgage bonds it amassed to help drive down interest rates and stabilize the housing market in the aftermath of the financial crisis, a move that signals the central bank's growing confidence in the U.S. economy.

Steady as she goes: The Fed will shrink the value of its portfolio of bonds by just $10 billion per month, a fraction of its $4.5 trillion stockpile. The modest nature of the move reflects the Fed's recognition that despite historically low unemployment rates, wage growth has been tame and inflation remains below the bank's 2% annual target.

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Obama: ACA is the reason "people are alive today"

Barack Obama delivers his speech during the 4th Congress of Indonesian Diaspora Network in Jakarta, Indonesia this July. Achmad Ibrahim / AP

While speaking at an event sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation today, former President Barack Obama said "people are alive today because of" the Affordable Care Act, "and when I see people trying to undo that hard-won progress…it is aggravating."

Obama ripped into the Graham-Cassidy bill, which proposes block grant funding to be distributed among the states. Obama said it would "raise costs, reduce coverage and roll back protections for older Americans, and people with pre-existing conditions." Based on current projections from consulting firm Avalere Health, health care cuts could top $4 trillion under this bill.

Other key quotes:

  • "Nationalist thought, xenophobic sentiment ... a politics that threatens to turn good people away from the kind of collective action that has always driven human progress."
  • On climate change: It's the "threat that may define the contours of this century more than any other."
  • On the future of the internet: "I don't think we can count on conventional media to spread the word [of progress]. This is where the power of the internet has not been harnessed the way it needs to be, particularly when you think of young people and young audiences.
Watch Obama speak:

Obama is speaking across town from Trump's UN appearance.

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Trump tells leaders his friends are going to Africa "to get rich"

President Trump addressed African leaders at a UN luncheon, and discussed the "tremendous potential" of Africa, particularly economically. He also said he was disturbed by violence in South Sudan and the Congo, and planned to send UN Ambassador Nikki Haley to Africa.

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Amazon reportedly talking to pharmacy benefit managers

Amazon may be trying to start building pharmacy contracts. Photo: Richard Drew / AP

Amazon may be talking with some middle-market pharmacy benefit managers "in an effort to get into various contract arrangements," according to analysts at investment bank Leerink Partners who spoke with pharmacy executives. Amazon may pursue a mail-order pharmacy that initially targets uninsured customers or people who have high deductibles and pay cash for most of their prescription drugs.

Reality check: The country is still a long way from Amazon handling people's prescriptions, if that time even comes. But conservations with prescription drug middlemen make it appear "that this is the direction Amazon is moving in," Leerink said in a report. Pharmacy executives who spoke with Leerink said it would take at least 18 to 24 months for Amazon to get proper drug licenses in 50 states. Amazon didn't immediately respond.

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Ransomware hack targeting 2 million an hour

This photo shows fingers on a laptop keyboard in North Andover, Mass. Elise Amendola / AP

A ransomware attack sweeping the globe right now is launching about 8,000 different versions of the virus script at Barracuda's customers, Eugene Weiss, lead platform architect at Barracuda, told Axios, and it's hitting at a steady rate of about 2 million attacks per hour.

Weiss' gut reaction on this hack: "What's remarkable about this one is just the sheer volume of it."

Here's what you need to know on the latest:

  • Automated hacking: "Nobody actually sat there and made 8,000 digital modifications," Weiss said. The way they do it is by using a kit that essentially automates code variations.
  • What to watch out for: An incoming email spoofing the destination host, with a subject about "Herbalife" or a "copier" file delivery. Two of the latest variants Barracuda has detected include a paragraph about legalese to make it seem official, or a line about how a "payment is attached," which tricks you to click since, as Weiss puts it, "everyone wants a payment."
  • The hackers are using social engineering to get people to click. That's increasingly becoming a trend, per Weiss. It's "less pure technical hacks" and instead using psychological tactics "get someone to click on something they shouldn't be."
  • If you remember one thing: "Don't click the link that is absolutely the most essential thing."
  • The targets: Email addresses at businesses or institutional groups in the U.S. or Canada.
  • It's likely not a nation-state perpetrating the hack, since the hackers' motives are financial. Instead it's a small, sophisticated group of criminals. The attacks are originating in Vietnam for the most part, as well as India, Colombia, Turkey, Greece, and a few other countries.
  • The future of global hacks: "At some point in the future you may see multilingual internationalized" hacks, Weiss said. In other words, they could be language-targeted. While the messages from these particular hackers are all in English so far, the virus programs are assessing the target computers' language settings.