Nov 30, 2018

G-20 speculation about U.S.-China deal grows

Photo: Thomas Peter - Pool/Getty Images

Both the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have stories suggesting that the U.S. and China may reach a deal during the dinner between President Trump, General Secretary Xi and their respective teams.

Driving the news: Outlines of this supposed deal have been discussed for weeks, mainly because it is perhaps the only possible arrangement the two sides can agree to right now.

According to the WSJ:

  • "The U.S. and China ... are exploring a trade deal in which Washington would hold off on further tariffs through the spring in exchange for new talks looking at big changes in Chinese economic policy..."
  • "New talks would focus on what both sides are calling trade 'architecture,' a broad term that could encompass many issues the U.S. has wanted Beijing to address, including intellectual property protection, coerced technology transfer, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, and even non-trade issues such as cyberespionage."

Bloomberg reported that:

  • "Those discussions... have centered on the possibility of a truce in which the U.S. would delay ramping up tariffs on China in exchange for Chinese concessions."
  • "The two leaders would also agree on a 'framework' for further talks, U.S. officials such as Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross have said publicly.
  • "The two sides have also been eyeing a possible mid-December trip to Washington by Liu He, Xi’s top economic adviser, according to two people familiar with the discussions. But whether that visit actually takes place would depend on a positive outcome in Buenos Aires."

The big picture: A tariff ceasefire in exchange for some big PRC purchases of U.S. goods and a framework for months of talks would probably make the financial markets and Beijing quite happy.

The bottom line: But all of the reports in the run-up to the dinner are really just speculation at this point. It will come down how Trump and Xi are feeling during the meeting.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Updated 31 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8 a.m. ET: 6,294,222 — Total deaths: 376,077 — Total recoveries — 2,711,241Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8 a.m. ET: 1,811,277 — Total deaths: 105,147 — Total recoveries: 458,231 — Total tested: 17,340,682Map.
  3. Public health: Nearly 26,000 coronavirus deaths in nursing homes have been reported to federal health officials —Coronavirus looms over George Floyd protests across the country.
  4. Federal government: Trump lashes out at governors, calls for National Guard to "dominate" streets.
  5. World: Former FDA commissioner says "this is not the time" to cut ties with WHO.
  6. 🎧 Podcast: The virus didn't go away.

More than 1 in 6 black workers lost jobs between February and April

Adapted from EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

As is often the case, the staggering job losses in the coronavirus-driven recession have been worse for black workers.

By the numbers: According to a report from the Economic Policy Institute, titled "Racism and economic inequality have predisposed black workers to be most hurt by coronavirus pandemic," more than 1 in 6 black workers lost their jobs between February and April.

Coronavirus could lower GDP by $15.7 trillion

Reproduced from Congressional Budget Office; Chart: Axios Visuals

The CBO released projections on Monday for U.S. nominal GDP to be lower by $15.7 trillion over the next decade than its estimate in January as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

What they're saying: It predicts that when adjusted for inflation GDP will be $7.9 trillion lower over the next decade and down by $790 billion in the second quarter of this year — a 37.7% quarterly contraction.