Jul 8, 2019

The market is still convinced the Fed will cut rates

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The extreme volatility in the Fed funds market

Data: Bloomberg, DB Global Research; Chart: Axios Visuals

Market participants overwhelmingly expect a 25 basis-point cut from the Fed at this month's policy meeting, but positioning has varied wildly over the last 2 months.

The big picture: Comments from Fed chair Jay Powell during a speech in Paris pushed the likelihood of a 50-point cut as high as 60% in mid-July, despite strong data prints on U.S. retail sales, unemployment and industrial production. Fed fund futures prices now show investors see just a 14% chance the central bank cuts rates by 50 basis points to a range of 1.75%–2.00%, according to data provided by Deutsche Bank Securities.

Go deeper: The case for a Fed rate cut

Keep ReadingArrowJul 24, 2019

A Fed fight may be brewing over interest rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to an aide. Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

The market got the signal loud and clear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday — an interest rate cut is coming in July — but that rate cut may push forward tensions within the central bank.

What's happening: At June's meeting, the Fed delivered the first non-unanimous rate decision of Powell's tenure, and judging by the minutes of the FOMC meeting released Wednesday, there is disagreement among members about whether a cut next month is warranted.

Go deeperArrowJul 11, 2019

Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2008

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference in June. Photo: Ting Shen/Xinhua via Getty Images

In its biggest decision since 2015, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would slash its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, as expected, in an effort to extend the economic boom and boost weak inflation.

Between the lines: Speaking to reporters at a press conference following the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell re-adjusted the market‘s expectations of a series of more rate cuts by the end of the year. Stocks dropped sharply during the press conference, but after regaining some ground, the Dow finished down more than 300 points, while the S&P fell 1.19% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%.

Go deeperArrowJul 31, 2019