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The market is still convinced the Fed will cut rates

June's strong U.S. jobs report certainly got investors to rethink their expectations for the Fed's upcoming July 30–31 policy meeting, but Fed funds futures prices show they still see a 0% chance Jay Powell and company don't cut U.S. interest rates.

Data: CME FedWatch Tool; Graphic: Naema Ahmed/Axios

Backdrop: The market also has pared back expectations for 3 hikes (or 75 basis points of cuts) by the end of the year, but only modestly. Investors now see the likelihood of 3 cuts by December as just under 50%.

What to watch: Powell will deliver his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The Fed also will release its June meeting minutes on Wednesday.

Interest rates