Oct 13, 2020 - Economy & Business

Fed Q3 GDP forecasts again diverge widely

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Data: Atlanta Fed and New York Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The gap between projected GDP growth in the third quarter between the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool and the New York Fed's tool continues to widen.

What it means: Both GDPNow forecasts are driven by economic reports that increase or decrease expected U.S. growth for the quarter.

  • The New York Fed's model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers and were extremely strong last quarter, and it puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which was particularly negative for the U.S. in Q3.
  • Interestingly, it's similar to the way the two forecasts diverged in Q2.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Oct 20, 2020 - Economy & Business

Americans' trust in the Fed keeps falling

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±3.3% margin of error; Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans' trust in the Federal Reserve fell again in October, with just 34% saying they have a fair amount or a great deal of trust in the central bank in the latest Axios/Ipsos poll.

What's happening: While trust in the Fed rises with age, income level and among those who say they know more about the institution, there was not a single group where even half of respondents said they trusted the Fed.

Go deeper (2 min. read)Arrow
Dave Lawler, author of World
17 mins ago - World

Special report: Trump's hopes of nuclear deal with Putin come down to the wire

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

A surprise offer from Vladimir Putin has the U.S. and Russia once again circling a potential pre-election nuclear deal.

The big picture: The last treaty constraining the U.S. and Russia, New START, is due to expire on Feb. 5, 2021, two weeks after the next U.S. presidential inauguration. For the first time since the height of the Cold War, the nuclear guardrails could come off.

Go deeper (5 min. read)Arrow
Margaret Talev, Alexi McCammond
47 mins ago - Politics & Policy

The cliffhanger could be ... Georgia

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

It hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1992, but Georgia's changing demographics may prove pivotal this year — not only to Trump v. Biden, but also to whether Democrats take control of the Senate.

Why it matters: If the fate of the Senate did hinge on Georgia, it might be January before we know the outcome. Meanwhile, voters' understanding of this power in the final days of the election could juice turnout enough to impact presidential results.

Go deeper (2 min. read)Arrow