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Data: Atlanta Fed and New York Fed; Chart: Axios Visuals

The gap between projected GDP growth in the third quarter between the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool and the New York Fed's tool continues to widen.

What it means: Both GDPNow forecasts are driven by economic reports that increase or decrease expected U.S. growth for the quarter.

  • The New York Fed's model put less emphasis on the ISM surveys, which track sentiment rather than hard numbers and were extremely strong last quarter, and it puts greater emphasis on import and export data, which was particularly negative for the U.S. in Q3.
  • Interestingly, it's similar to the way the two forecasts diverged in Q2.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
Jan 19, 2021 - Economy & Business

Biden's inflation danger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal has economists and bullish market analysts revising their U.S. growth expectations higher, predicting a reflation of the economy in 2021 and possibly more booming returns for risk assets.

Yes, but: Others are warning that what's expected to be reflation could actually show up as inflation, a much less welcome phenomenon.

Updated 3 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Cuomo asks for “independent” investigator into sexual harassment claims

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo at a press conference on Feb. 24. Photo: Seth Wenig/pool/AFP via Getty Images

A top aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that he would authorize and "voluntarily cooperate" with an independent investigation run by New York's attorney general into claims he sexually harassed several women.

The state of play: The statement comes after a day of competing statements from Cuomo and AG Letitcia James over who would oversee an independent investigation into the governor.

Cuomo scandal snares Dems on #MeToo

Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photo: Ray Tamarra/Getty Images   

The searing sexual harassment allegations made against Gov. Andrew Cuomo are trouble for Democrats far beyond Albany and New York.

Why it matters: They hammered Donald Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape. Pilloried Brett Kavanaugh over Christine Blasey Ford. Defended President Biden when he was accused of inappropriate touching. Now, Democrats have to show whether they walk the "#MeToo" talk.