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Steven Senne / AP

Seven experts responded to a NYT request to predict what the Congressional Budget Office might say about the Republican Obamacare replacement bill in five different areas: long-term costs, how many people will lose health insurance, how much premiums will change, how many people will lose Medicaid coverage, and how employer-based insurance will change.

What stood out to us:

  • Most experts surveyed expect premiums to rise under the GOP plan.
  • All of the experts who responded think Americans will lose coverage, but the question remains: How many? They also all think Medicaid enrollment will drop, likely due to the fact that the bill cuts federal funding for the program.
  • The jury is still out on how the bill will affect the number of Americans who use employer-based insurance. This number is a little bit of a dark horse, since the GOP bill doesn't directly touch employer insurance, but could have big political consequences if it shows this market will be impacted.

Why it matters: Last week the Republicans' plan made it through two committees — but it had no CBO score, and the Republicans are trying to pass the plan through reconciliation, which requires the CBO to say it will save the federal budget at least $2 billion over 10 years. That score is expected to roll out this week, but if long term costs are higher than they are now, not only is that bad, but the bill must also be changed to hit the $2 billion savings target.

Go deeper

Bipartisan group of senators unveil $908 billion COVID stimulus proposal

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) in the Capitol in 2018. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

A bipartisan group of senators on Tuesday proposed a $908 billion coronavirus stimulus package, in one of the few concrete steps toward COVID relief made by Congress in several months.

Why it matters: Recent data shows that the economic recovery is floundering as coronavirus cases surge and hospitals threaten to be overwhelmed heading into what is likely to be a grim winter.

Inside Patch's new local newsletter platform

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Patch, the hyperlocal (and profitable) local digital news company, has built a new software platform called "Patch Labs" that lets local news reporters publish their own newsletters and websites, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: It follows a growing trend of journalists going solo via newsletters at the national level.

Scoop: Politico stars plot new Playbook

Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Three of Politico’s biggest reporting stars plan to launch a competitor to the company’s Politico Playbook franchise, sources tell me. 

Why it matters:  Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan will launch a daily newsletter in 2021 as a stand-alone company, the sources say. In effect, they will be competing against the Playbook franchise they helped create and grow.