Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Wall Street is hunkering down for a longer, more intense trade war, according to Goldman Sachs' monthly poll of more than 1,000 of the bank’s institutional and corporate trading clients, which found that most expect tariffs to hold steady as talks continue.

The backdrop: The survey, which gauges the sentiment of sophisticated investors about market-related topics, was conducted on Aug. 1-2, as President Trump said he would tax the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports next month.

  • Details: 61% of respondents said they expected negotiations to continue with “steady tariffs“ — down from 74% in July.
  • 17% said they expected tariffs to increase, and 15% said they expected an escalation in tensions with non-tariff measures. Those numbers were up from 6% and 8%, respectively.
  • Only 5% – down from 9% in July – said they expected that a deal, with all tariffs removed, would happen before year-end.

What else they're saying: When asked which event they're most focused on in August, the top answer, with 27% of respondents, was "Brexit developments." #2 was "Fed minutes."

  • Asked what they scenario they anticipated for Brexit on Nov. 1, the plurality of respondents (33%) said "no-deal Brexit with negotiated mitigations."

Respondents were gloomier than they were in July about how the stock market would end the year.

  • 38% said the S&P 500 would end the year lower vs. the 28% who said so in July.
  • Only 19% predicted the market would end slightly higher, down from 26% last month.
  • The respondents, 39% of whom said they expected to keep their market positions stable in August, had the dimmest view of risky assets since 2016, with 37% saying they were "slightly bearish" on them.

Go deeper

Biden's centrist words, liberal actions

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President Biden talks like a soothing centrist. He promises to govern like a soothing centrist. But early moves show that he is keeping his promise to advance a liberal agenda.

Why it matters: Never before has a president done more by executive fiat in such a short period of time than Biden. And those specific actions, coupled with a push for a more progressive slate of regulators and advisers, look more like the Biden of the Democratic primary than the unity-and-restraint Biden of the general election.

17 mins ago - Technology

Review of Trump ban marks major turning point for Facebook

Photo Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Facebook's decision to ask its new independent Oversight Board to review the company's indefinite suspension of former President Trump is likely to set a critical precedent for how the social media giant handles political speech from world leaders.

What they're saying: "I very much hope and can expect … that they will uphold our decision," Facebook's VP of global affairs Nick Clegg tells Axios.

Updated 25 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Biden to attempt "emergency economic relief" by executive order

President Biden. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

President Biden will continue his executive action blitz on Friday, issuing two more orders in an attempt to provide immediate relief to struggling families without waiting for Congress.

Why it matters: In his second full day in office, Biden is again resorting to executive actions as he tries to increase payments for nutritional assistance and protect workers' rights during the pandemic.