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While current headlines might make you think that geopolitics is going to hell in a handbasket, things right now are better than normal around the world — at least from the market's perspective — according to BlackRock's latest global risk update.

Expand chart
Reproduced from a BlackRock report; Chart: Axios Visuals

The big picture: The respite is largely due to apparent breakthroughs in trade between the Trump administration and the U.S.' traditional allies. But some of the analysis' most impactful risks — like the state of play between the U.S. and China — are also among its most likely to worsen given the uncertainty of current policymaking, leaving the world facing potential volatility.

The good:

  • The analysis views tension surrounding global trade as one of the biggest, likeliest threats facing world markets, but it sees the U.S. as an increasingly stable player. The recent agreements with Mexico and the EU on trade make it seem like President Trump is attempting to salvage — or at least work to reform — America's trade deals with its core allies.
  • The biggest threat on the board — a complete breakdown between Russia and NATO — remains the least likely to take place, even as heightened tensions continue to grab headlines worldwide.

The bad:

  • Economic relations between the U.S. and China are not good — and steadily worsening, especially given the latest trade war salvo between the two nations. The analysis views continued tensions here as the market's most likely disruptor. And because the issue is so intertwined with the North Korea conflict, there are multiple ways for it to potentially boil over.
  • Emerging countries are marked by continued upheaval. Some, like Brazil and Mexico, are set or likely to have populist leaders in place soon. And Turkey is facing a continued currency crash and isolation from the international sphere amid the increasingly authoritarian rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The bottom line: BlackRock's risk measure is notably volatile. Take a look: The markets viewed the world's geopolitical risks as above-average back in June during the height of the uncertainty surrounding North Korea. Things have trended downward significantly since then on more positive news, but we live in an age when 280 characters can turn the world on its head.Go deeper: Take a look at the full report, which includes detailed analyses of what BlackRock has deemed the 10 greatest geopolitical risks.

Go deeper

54 mins ago - Health

CDC says some immunocompromised people can get fourth COVID shot

Photo: Noriko Hayashi/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in updated guidelines Tuesday that some immunocompromised people who have received either Pfizer or Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines will be able to get a fourth shot.

Details: People over 18 who are "moderately to severely immunocompromised" and have received three doses of an mRNA vaccine may get a fourth shot (of either the Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson vaccines) at least six months after getting their third Pfizer or Moderna dose, per the CDC.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Scoop: Biden plan expected to include at least $500B for climate

Photo: Stephanie Keith/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The White House is privately telling lawmakers the climate portion of President Biden's roughly $2 trillion social spending plan is "mostly settled" and will likely cost more than $500 billion, two sources familiar with the talks tell Axios.

Why it matters: A pricetag of $500-$555 billion is a huge number and, if it holds, would likely be the single biggest component of the sweeping package. It also isn't far off from the roughly $600 billion proposed when the bill was expected to cost $3.5 trillion.

2 hours ago - World

U.S. presses Gulf countries to help resolve Sudan coup crisis

Jake Sullivan briefs the press. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty

The Biden administration has asked its partners in the Gulf and elsewhere to press the Sudanese generals who carried out a coup on Monday to release captives including Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok and to reinstate the civilian government, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a press briefing on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The U.S. has limited influence over coup leader Gen. Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and other military leaders, many of whom have close ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.