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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The European Central Bank is leading the charge in the next wave of central bank stimulus measures, but experts and former central bankers argue it will be insufficient to deal with the looming global downturn.

Why it matters: Central banks see that the global economy is in trouble and they are stepping in to act, but are responding to new problems with old solutions. The eurozone already has negative interest rates and the ECB already has spent trillions buying bonds in an attempt to stimulate the economy. In spite of these efforts, major European economies have been unable to generate inflation or growth that's even close to their targets for years.

What's happening: ECB governing board member Olli Rehn said the central bank will announce a fresh package of “impactful and significant” stimulus at its September meeting that's expected to include “substantial" bond purchases as well as cuts to the ECB’s already-negative interest rate, WSJ reported.

  • Analysts expect the central bank will cut rates to -0.5% and restart its quantitative easing program with around $56 billion a month of fresh bond purchases.

What they're saying: "Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn," a report released Thursday from the BlackRock Investment Institute argues.

  • The report was authored by former Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer, former Swiss central bank chief Philipp Hildebrand, former Bank of Canada deputy governor Jean Boivin and other former central bankers.
  • "Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below...There is not enough monetary policy space to deal with the next downturn."

The intrigue: The paper urges the introduction of "helicopter money," or “going direct” with "an explicit and permanent monetary financing of a fiscal expansion" otherwise known as central banks giving money directly to the public.

The bottom line: Central banks are gearing up to stave off a recession and highly respected former central bank leaders now see quantitative easing and negative interest rates — both considered extraordinarily and controversially powerful when they were first discussed — as insufficient to deal with the world's problems.

Go deeper: Fund managers see highest probability of recession since 2011

Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

First look: Anita Dunn advises Dems on economy message for '22

Signs from a President Biden event yesterday in Kansas City, Mo. Photo: Chase Castor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In a midterm preview, top Democratic strategist Anita Dunn advises the party's House and Senate members to frame Republicans "as being against the economic interests of working Americans."

What she's saying: "Explicitly framing Republicans as opposing policies to lower costs does better than simply framing Republicans as the 'party of no,'" Dunn, White House senior adviser until August, writes in the memo.

JPMorgan: "Full global recovery" in 2022

Photo: Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

JPMorgan Chase Global Research says in a forecast to clients: "2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak."

The big picture: The bullish report sees "a return of global mobility, and a release of pent-up demand from consumers (e.g. travel, services)."

Inside Trump's hunt for "disloyal" Republicans

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Donald Trump and his associates are systematically reshaping the Republican Party, working to install hand-picked loyalists across federal and state governments and destroy those he feels have been disloyal, sources close to the former president tell Axios.

Why it matters: If most or all of Trump’s candidates win, he will go into the 2024 election cycle with far more people willing to do his bidding who run the elections in key states.