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Pipes at the gas compressor station in Velke Kapusany, Slovakia. Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

Part of Equinor's long-term global energy analysis, released late last week, looks eerily prescient after Trump's tumultuous weekend exit from the G7 summit.

The bottom line: The oil-and-gas giant warned that their "Rivalry" scenario — where geopolitical and trade conflict, weakened multilateral institutions and other forces erode efforts on climate — is looking more likely.

“Unfortunately, we currently see too many signs of the Rivalry-scenario. If continuing, they will negatively impact necessary global collaborative efforts and economic growth which are keys to drive the world in a sustainable direction.”
— Eirik Wærness, the company's chief economist, in a statement alongside the release
  • "Rivalry" — one of their three long-term forecasts — is a recipe for temperature increases that blow well past 2 degrees celsius. Global coal and oil demand are higher in 2050, while energy-related carbon emissions keep rising through 2040 and then plateau.

The big picture: Trump's G7 exit and tweets attacking Canada and European allies are a reminder of the shaken foundation of longstanding alliances.

  • On climate, even before abandoning the whole G7 summit communique, the U.S. of course didn't join the affirmation of the Paris agreement — or a subsequent section that more broadly promotes multilateral climate work.

Why this matters: The worldwide climate picture was already sobering without the latest strife. One key data point: global carbon emissions rose in 2017 after a three-year pause.

  • While major countries have re-affirmed their Paris commitment, the shift in the U.S. posture creates hurdles to the increasing worldwide climate ambition that analysts call needed to prevent highly dangerous warming.
  • Which brings us back to Equinor — even under their less ominous "reform" scenario, the global emissions pathway is badly inconsistent with the steep carbon cuts needed in decades ahead to stay within 2°C.

More: We looked at Equinor's forecasts for EVs here and on peak oil demand here.

Go deeper

5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Rahm Emanuel floated for Transportation secretary

Rahm Emanuel. Photo: Joshua Lott for The Washington Post via Getty Images

President-elect Biden is strongly considering Rahm Emanuel to run the Department of Transportation, weighing the former Chicago mayor’s experience on infrastructure spending against concerns from progressives over his policing record.

Why it matters: The DOT could effectively become the new Commerce Department, as infrastructure spending, smart cities construction and the rollout of drone-delivery programs take on increasing economic weight.

6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden turns to experienced hands for White House economic team

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Joe Biden plans to announce Cecilia Rouse and Brian Deese as part of his economic team and Neera Tanden to head the Office of Management and Budget, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: These are experienced hands. Unveiling a diverse group of advisers also may draw attention away from a selection of Deese to run the National Economic Council. Some progressives have criticized his work at BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm.

Biden taps former Obama communications director for press secretary

Photo: Mark Makela/Getty Images

Jen Psaki, who previously served as Obama's communications director, will serve as President-elect Joe Biden's press secretary, the transition team announced Sunday.

The big picture: All of the top aides in Biden's communication staff will be women, per the Washington Post, which first reported Psaki's appointment.