As the dust settles on the Senate's early Saturday morning vote, here's a few things to look for in conference...

ANWR: A decades-long push to allow oil exploration in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is on the brink of succeeding.

  • What's next: Your Generate host sees very little chance that the ANWR provisions will be jettisoned in a House-Senate conference, so the fate of the legislative drilling effort rises or falls on the overall tax negotiations.
  • Axios' Jonathan Swan wrote last night that "None of my best sources — inside or out of Republican leadership — think there's much of a chance the GOP tax effort collapses."
  • If the tax bill is signed into law, look for the long ANWR fight to enter a new phase as environmentalists look to slow leasing and development with court battles, among other efforts.

Renewables and EVs: The renewables and electric car sectors will battle House provisions that kill an EV credit and cut the value of the wind energy production tax credit. Renewables groups are also very worried about a Senate provision called "Base Erosion Anti Abuse Tax" (BASE) that they say would thwart their ability to monetize renewable tax credits (a recent letter to lawmakers about this is here).

More BASE: "Anti-base erosion language in the Senate tax bill, as currently written, would impose a 100% surcharge on overseas companies' purchases of solar ITCs and PTCs in the tax equity market. The provision, which would appear to apply retroactively to existing credits, could significantly dampen financing for wind and solar infrastructure," the firm Clearview Energy Partners said in a note Monday morning.

Corporate concerns: This Wall Street Journal story notes that corporate interests including coal magnate Bob Murray are upset over the Senate bill's Alternative Minimum Tax provisions and how they would complicate companies' ability to use other credits, notably the R&D credit.

Oil-and-gas: Via the New York Times and others, a late add to the Senate bill would give new opportunities to certain oil-and-gas firms to benefit from major deductions for so-called pass-through entities.

Go deeper

Updated 9 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 19,282,972 — Total deaths: 718,851 — Total recoveries — 11,671,491Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:45 p.m. ET: 4,937,441 — Total deaths: 161,248 — Total recoveries: 1,623,870 — Total tests: 60,415,558Map.
  3. Politics: Trump says he's prepared to sign executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Education: Cuomo says all New York schools can reopen for in-person learning.
  5. Public health: Surgeon general urges flu shots to prevent "double whammy" with coronavirus — Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases.
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.

Warren and Clinton to speak on same night of Democratic convention

(Photos: Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Hillary Clinton both are slated to speak on the Wednesday of the Democratic convention — Aug. 19 — four sources familiar with the planning told Axios.

Why it matters: That's the same night Joe Biden's running mate (to be revealed next week) will address the nation. Clinton and Warren represent two of the most influential wise-women of Democratic politics with the potential to turn out millions of establishment and progressive voters in November.

Trump considering order on pre-existing condition protections, which already exist

Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump announced on Friday he will pursue an executive order requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions, something that is already law.

Why it matters: The Affordable Care Act already requires insurers to cover pre-existing conditions. The Trump administration is currently arguing in a case before the Supreme Court to strike down that very law — including its pre-existing condition protections.