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A key House Republican is putting forward a plan to make the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) an independent agency outside the Department of Commerce. 

Why it matters: Removing the agency from a Cabinet-level department could diminish its clout when it comes to securing funding and weighing in on key policy decisions, former senior NOAA officials tell Axios.  

It would also hollow out the Commerce Department, where NOAA comprises more than 50% of the budget.

NOAA plays an outsized role in American daily life, since it is responsible for forecasting the weather and issuing warnings for severe storms. The agency also regulates fisheries and runs some of the top climate change research centers in the world. 

State of play: A bill being circulated within the House Science, Space and Technology Committee by chairman Frank Lucas (Okla.)  would authorize NOAA and its mission in law for the first time. Lucas plans to formally introduce it this spring.

Committee Democrats, led by ranking member Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), are open to supporting the measure but are waiting to see all the details before deciding whether to back it, according to a Democratic committee aide. 

NOAA, which was created by an executive order in 1970, has always been an awkward fit in the Commerce Department. It was placed there because of a dispute then-president Richard Nixon had with his Interior secretary. 

However, making it an independent organization could deprive it of Cabinet-level influence. 

Yes, but: There is also precedent for the Commerce secretary to meddle with the agency due to political pressure, as occurred during the “Sharpiegate scandal” during Hurricane Dorian in 2019. 

In that instance, pressure from the White House and Commerce Department leadership forced NOAA to back away from its original forecast for Hurricane Dorian’s impacts, in order to support President Trump’s contention that the storm would threaten Alabama. 

Between the lines: A GOP Science Committee aide told Axios that Lucas’ effort is about ensuring that NOAA’s existence and mission is enshrined into law and reorganizing its structure to make its research operations more efficient. 

“Do we need all the existing line offices here? Do we need to consolidate? Do we need to combine?” the aide said. “We’re not really looking to have some massive reorientation of the agency, but partly it is somewhat of an organizational issue.” 

The bill would enter at least one polarizing area: it would require a study on moving NOAA’s endangered species and marine protection responsibilities to the Interior Department, which helps regulate energy development.

That is likely to encounter opposition on the Senate side, where Sen. Maria Cantwell, chair of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, plans to introduce her own bill to enshrine NOAA into law, according to Democratic committee staff members. 

The Senate bill is unlikely to push for NOAA's independence. 

Some of NOAA’s responsibilities also fall under the purview of the House Resources Committee. 

What they’re saying: Two past agency leaders told Axios that making NOAA independent would likely be a net plus for the agency, since the Commerce Department controls many of its policy, spending and messaging decisions. 

“The principle of moving NOAA to be an independent agency, I support 1,000%,” said Tim Gallaudet, who served as an acting NOAA administrator under former President Trump. “I cannot tell you the number of times where progress was impeded by having to go through the bureaucratic layer of the Department of Commerce.“ 

But one former NOAA senior staff member, who spoke anonymously because they still do business with the agency, expressed reservations about NOAA’s ability to continue to secure adequate funding and maintain its visibility if it were an independent agency. 

For more content like this, join the waitlist for Axios Pro Energy Policy, launching Feb. 13.

House Science chair seeks to carve out an independent NOAA

NOAA has always been an awkward fit in the Department of Commerce.

NOAA satellite image showing Hurricane Ian nearing the coast of Florida on Sept. 28, 2022.

Congress

Extreme weather

Climate change

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

A long-duration ice storm impacting portions of the Southern Plains and mid-South is expected to last until Wednesday, bringing the potential for power outages, tree damage and dangerous road conditions to several states.

The big picture: About 3.3 million Americans were under an ice storm warning on Tuesday morning, with 16.5 million under a winter storm warning, according to the National Weather Service. Many more were under other types of winter weather alerts, such as wind chill advisories. 

State of play: "A glancing blow of arctic air mixed with a surge in moisture is setting the stage for an extensive and very dangerous ice event," the National Weather Service warned in an update on its website

"The most likely corridor of icing with a mixture of sleet will occur from west-central Texas to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys. The ice accretion from Texas into Mid South may approach a half inch or more through Wednesday and cause power outages and travel issues."

Zoom in: Frigid air in the Upper Midwest and Great Plains headed South, where it's encountering moisture along a frontal boundary, and leading to this treacherous stretch of icy precipitation.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center forecast several rounds of wintry precipitation, including light freezing rain and sleet from Monday to Wednesday. Ice accumulations may be greater than a quarter of an inch, the prediction center said.

The ice "will lead to tree damage and power outages across the hardest-hit regions," it added.

The dangerous weather had already led to hundreds of flight delays and cancelations by Monday afternoon.

Winter storm and ice storm warnings were in effect across several states, from Texas to Arkansas to Kentucky, according to the National Weather Service. 

“Travel could be nearly impossible in some areas,” the NWS said.

Sleet and freezing rain has fallen across Texas on Monday. Much of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area is under a winter storm warning until Wednesday morning.

Moderate to heavy sleet, possibly accompanied by thunder, is expected in both Arkansas and Oklahoma, according to the NWS' Tulsa office. 

Freezing rain and sleet are expected in Kentucky, too, making "travel treacherous" through Tuesday morning, per the NWS' Paducah, Kentucky, office.

An icy mix of precipitation is expected across at least 15 states from Monday to Wednesday, according to the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center.

More than one-quarter inch of ice accumulation is forecast in states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee, the NWS said. 

Memphis is currently under an ice storm warning until noon on Wednesday with “significant icing expected" and ice accumulations predicted to reach one-quarter to one-half inch, according to the NWS Memphis office.

In western Kentucky, one- to two-tenths of ice accumulation is expected, according to the NWS' Paducah office.

Temperatures could hit 20 to 30 degrees below average throughout the Great Plains and Intermountain West to start the week, too, NOAA said. The Dakotas and Minnesota could see wind chill temperatures drop to minus-40°.

Temperatures were in the single digits Monday afternoon in South Dakota cities Sioux Falls, Rapid City and Aberdeen.

Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, had single-digit temperatures, too.

Details: By 9 p.m. on Monday, more than 5,100 flights into, within or out of the United States were delayed, with around 1,100 flights canceled, according to data from FlightAware.

Most of the flights were from Southwest Airlines and were out of Dallas-Fort Worth International and Dallas Love Field airports.

Southwest Airlines said travelers with flights to, from and through some cities in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Oklahoma can rebook flights without additional charges. This applies to flights from Jan. 30 to Feb. 1.

American Airlines also issued a waiver for DFW airport that applies to flights from Jan. 29 to Feb. 2.

Axios' Andrew Freedman contributed to this report.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with further details on the storm.

Dangerous ice storm underway as Arctic air surges south

As of Monday night, 3.3 million Americans are under an ice storm warning, with 14.5 million under a winter storm warning.

An image of the winter weather hitting the United States.

Satellite image shows the winter storm from Texas to the Mississippi River Valley. Source: NOAA

Weather

A new study relying on machine learning methods finds the climate thresholds enshrined in the Paris agreement may be coming up faster than previously anticipated.

Why it matters: The world is already suffering the impacts of 1.1°C (1.98°F) to 1.2°C (2.16°F) of warming to date, and passing 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels could dramatically increase the risks to society and ecosystems. 

The big picture: The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses neural networks trained on climate model simulations to predict the time remaining until the Paris targets will be reached. 

The data-driven approach involves identifying patterns in historical temperature observations that provide clues to the time remaining until a warming level is exceeded.

The researchers from Stanford University and Colorado State University found the world has about a decade until the 1.5-degree target is reached and then exceeded, which is consistent with previous findings. 

Notably, it finds that even the lowest emissions scenario, featuring steep cuts to fossil fuel use in the next few decades, has a significant chance of breaching the 2°C target. The timeline for hitting 2°C ranges from 2043 to 2058, with a central estimate of 2050, the study finds. 

Between the lines: The study has some significant caveats, including the fact that the machine learning techniques may be biased by the computer models they were trained on. 

Study lead author Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford, told Axios the new paper took multiple steps to try to minimize the likelihood of such biases. 

The AI-enabled study is part of a trend in climate science toward focusing on developing new data analysis techniques. Some scientists are concerned this may come at the expense of potential new discoveries about how the climate system functions. 

What they're saying: "It's always a bit tricky to know how much faith to put in machine-learning methods like this given the absence of physical modeling of the systems involved," Zeke Hausfauther, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, who was not involved in the new study, told Axios via email. 

He said it offers "another reason for caution" that an emissions scenario assumed to hold warming to under 2°C may in fact "have a real chance of resulting in higher warming than we expect." 

Critical climate thresholds may be nearer than thought: study finds

The study concludes that even with steep emissions cuts, we're likely to reach or pass 2°C of warming.

Illustration of a metal dial with the Earth on it, turned upward.

Global warming

Auckland authorities are urging residents to stay home if possible ahead of a second atmospheric river event forecast to hit Tuesday after record rainfall flooded much of New Zealand's largest city Friday. 

The impact: At least four people have died after Auckland officials declared a state of emergency late Friday, after floodwaters inundated much of the city and many areas recorded their wettest-ever day. Further flooding was reported after more heavy rain over Sunday night.

The severe storm has also caused landslides, while flooding has closed roads across New Zealand's upper North Island.

New Zealand's education secretary directed all Auckland region schools to close for on-site classes until Friday as the state of emergency remains in place amid the threat of further weather disruptions and to minimize traffic "while vital infrastructure is urgently repaired," per a Ministry of Education statement Monday.

The big picture: This marks an unprecedented rainfall event for Auckland and its surrounding areas, with some places getting a season's worth of rain in one day.

Auckland has recorded more than 769% of its normal January monthly rainfall and over 38% of its "entire ANNUAL rainfall" as of Monday morning local time, according to New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).

Auckland Airport halted flights until Saturday after almost 11 inches of rain fell, flooding parts of the terminal and stranding hundreds of people over Friday night. 

By the numbers: Kumeu, a suburb north of Auckland, observed 79% of its normal summer rainfall in just 15 hours, with more than 6.5 inches of rain, per NIWA.

Albany, meanwhile, recorded 75% of its normal summer rain.

Castle Rock has the highest rainfall levels, with more than 12 inches of rain from Friday to noon Saturday.

Context: Atmospheric rivers are narrow currents of moisture-laden air that can transport vast amounts of water vapor thousands of miles.

Climate change is adding even more moisture to atmospheric rivers, enabling them to dump higher rain and snow totals, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Thought bubble via Freedman: This extreme precipitation event is consistent with how climate change is altering weather worldwide.

Heavy rainfall events are already becoming more common and intense across the U.S. and in other countries since the atmosphere holds about 7% more water vapor per 1 degree Celsius of warming.

A screenshot of a tweet outlining record heavy rainfall in the Auckland region on Friday.

What's next: More heavy rain and possible thunderstorms forecast for northern New Zealand in the next few days could potentially aggravate the flooding.

National weather agency MetService has issued multiple severe weather warnings and watches for the Northland region for 24 hours from early Tuesday and Auckland for 12 hours from 6pm that night.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

New Zealand's flood-hit largest city braces for second atmospheric river

Auckland has recorded more than 769% of its normal January monthly rainfall and  over 38% of its entire annual rainfall as rains continue.

A digger is submerged in a flooded construction site on Jan. 28 in Auckland, New Zealand. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images

New Zealand

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A new pilot initiative is tapping into solar-powered tech as a solution to the water crisis affecting hundreds of thousands of people living in colonias along the U.S. and Mexico border.

Driving the news: SOURCE Global, a public benefit corporation, is partnering up with Texas politicians and nonprofits to provide clean drinking water access to several colonias — unincorporated, low-income communities with limited resources, organizers tell Axios. 

The water crisis has been driven by climate-related impacts on statewide water supply as well as a lack of political will to connect colonias to municipal water sources. 

The backstory: For the largely low-income, Latino residents living in colonias — communities that don't have basic human services like traditional water infrastructure — the state's increasingly unreliable water supply, which relies heavily on drought-stricken rivers and reservoirs, worsens existing barriers to access.

"Colonia residents bought their land because they saw the opportunity to be homeowners, but they were never properly informed of the lack of political will to bring municipal water service to colonias," Laura Ponce, executive director of the El Paso County nonprofit Project Bravo, tells Axios in an email.

"Without a safe source for drinking water, low-income colonia families take health risks like drinking potable water delivered by trucks, storing water in unsealed large containers, and minimizing their water consumption," says Ponce.

Olga Ramos, a county commissioner in Maverick County, Texas, tells Axios in an email that there are more than 19 colonias in her precinct alone — and most are without access to safe water. 

"It’s a problem we have to solve, but building water infrastructure is a complicated and expensive task, one that could take years to complete, and these families can’t wait that long," says Ramos.

A new pilot initiative led by SOURCE Global is aiming to mitigate this by installing solar-powered tech that produces clean drinking water for about 500 colonia households across Hueco Tanks and Quemado, which are in El Paso County and Maverick County. 

SOURCE hydropanels suck up water vapor from the air, drawing only pure water molecules before condensing it into liquid, leaving pollutants behind, then transforming those molecules into liquid water and adding calcium and magnesium.

The estimated total funding needed to outfit the households in the two colonias is roughly $3 million. They've secured $150,000 of that amount and are looking to get the rest through the NADB's Community Assistance Program.

What they're saying: Ramos sees the hydropanels as a quick, cost-effective way to give colonia residents safe water at their homes. 

"They also don’t rely on groundwater, which we know is threatened by drought," Ramos says. 

A recently published Texas Department of Agriculture report found that climate instability — which is linked to water restrictions, failed crops, and increased risk of wildfires and floods — is also imperiling the state's food supply, per the Texas Tribune. 

Zoom out: "People who have been underserved historically are getting locked into being underserved, because of the finiteness of the resource [water] and the nature of the headwinds that are facing all of us with climate change," SOURCE CEO Cody Friesen tells Axios.

Yes, but: Ponce, of the nonprofit Project Bravo, says the hydropanels only provide enough water for drinking and cooking. 

"They do not produce enough water for washing clothes, flushing toilets, bathing, and other functions that are needed to run a household," says Ponce, adding that while the SOURCE project is an "ethical short-term solution," bringing piped water to the colonias is the "ideal solution."

The bottom line: "These families still need the work of ... grassroots groups to make sure our elected officials don't forget them," Ponce tells Axios. 

First look: Clean water for Texas colonias

A renewable tech pilot program is bringing drinking water to border colonias.

Photo illustration of an elderly person resting on a cane, a large dripping faucet and desert landscape.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Water insecurity

The eastern Horn of Africa just saw an unprecedented fifth straight failed rainy season on record, making it the longest and most severe drought in 70 years of precipitation data.

The region is likely headed for a sixth poor rainy season this spring, a new forecast warns. 

Why it matters: The drought has tipped the region, which encompasses much of Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, into widespread severe food insecurity. It has also driven Somalia to the brink of famine. 

State of play: More than 1.3 million people in Somalia have been forced to leave their farms and migrate to seek food in displacement sites. 

About 8.3 million Somalis are at risk of famine if more humanitarian assistance is not delivered soon, according to the International Rescue Committee, an aid group. 

The big picture: The ongoing drought has its roots in a combination of human-induced global warming and La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

La Niña can temporarily reconfigure global weather patterns, bringing increased rainfall to Indonesia, whereas eastern Africa tends to see reduced rains. 

The warming climate worsens droughts by boosting air temperatures and enhancing evaporation from soils and vegetation. 

Globally, ocean temperatures are also increasing rapidly, which tilts the odds in favor of wet and dry precipitation extremes. 

What they're saying: The Famine Early Warning Systems Network called the rainfall totals for the most recent October through December period "grim" in a statement issued Monday. 

"Five inches or so of rain, over three months, in a very hot region, is very close to no rainfall," Chris Funk, research director at the University of California at Santa Barbara's Climate Hazards Center, said in a statement.

Threat level: The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons per year, one from March to May, and another from October to December. 

The Hazards Center predicts the sixth straight failed wet season from March to May of this year, as La Niña's effects are expected to linger. 

The drought is worsening a humanitarian crisis at a time when parts of the region are in conflict, a type of scenario national security planners expect the U.S. and other countries will encounter more frequently abroad due to global warming. 

Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season

The rare "triple dip La Niña" plus climate change has yielded an extended, intense drought.

A woman tries to get clean water in Kajiado, Kenya, during a severe drought.

A woman tries to get clean water in Kajiado, Kenya on Nov. 13, 2022. Photo: Gerald Anderson/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Africa

President Biden said Thursday during a visit to survey damage from recent atmospheric river storms in California that "if anybody doubts climate is changing, then they must have been asleep for the last couple of years."

Driving the news: Biden met with Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who praised the administration for approving a presidential emergency declaration before he even requested it.

Biden also authorized increasing the federal share for debris removal and emergency protective measures to 100% of the total eligible costs for 60 days from the start of the incident period.

The big picture: The state saw nine atmospheric rivers over 22 days, bringing flooding, landslides and mudslides to the Golden State, and leaving at least 21 people dead, not including a 5-year-old boy who remains missing, Newsom said.

It could take weeks to clean up the storm damage, Californian officials have said.

What they're saying: "Three years of a mega drought, the driest on the West Coast in over 1,200 years and we've now had three weeks of mega floods," the governor said.

"Parts of the state ... got more rainfall in a single day than they get the entire year," Biden said at the press briefing in Santa Cruz County.

"We know some of the destruction is going to take years to fully recover and rebuild. But we got to not just rebuild, we gotta rebuild better," the president continued.

Biden added that there has to be "significant changes" to the infrastructure, and that "the federal government's gonna be here to help get that done."

Thought bubble via Axios' Andrew Freedman: While California’s precipitation history is full of examples of wild swings from drought to flood and back again, the ongoing Southwestern megadrought and recent onslaught of atmospheric river events are taking place in a warmer climate. 

Studies show this is causing dry periods to become hotter and drier, and increasing the odds of severe droughts, while atmospheric rivers are expected to carry more moisture as ocean and air temperatures increase. 

California has been locked in a drought and flood emergency at the same time.

Go deeper: Atmospheric rivers force California to manage floods during drought

Biden slams climate change doubters while surveying storm damage

"Three years of a mega drought ... and we've now had three weeks of mega floods," California Gov. Gavin Newsom said.

President Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom surveying storm damage in Seacliff, Calif., on Jan. 19. Photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP

California

Joe Biden

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

President Biden made additional disaster assistance available to California Wednesday to help the state recover from the spate of recent atmospheric river storms, which the Los Angeles Times reports have killed at least 22 people.

Driving the news: On the eve of his California visit, Biden authorized an increase in federal funding for emergency protective measures due to the flooding, landslides, and mudslides that began Dec. 27 and were continuing in some places, the White House noted in announcing the declaration amendment on Wednesday night.

Under Biden's modified order, the federal share for debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct federal assistance, has been increased to 100% of the total eligible costs for 60 days from the start of the incident period, per the White House statement.

State of play: A fast-moving storm was bringing more showers to parts of northern California and heavy mountain snow on the state's mountains, "where additional snow will add to an enormous snowpack," the National Weather Service said in a forecast update early Thursday.

While the storm wasn't expected to further damage the state, Sacramento outlet KCRA reported that some areas were still responding to flooded roads.

Californian officials have said it could take weeks to clean up the storm damage.

Context: California is still in the grip of a historic drought, and climate change is increasing the likelihood of sharp swings between extremely dry and very wet conditions in the state, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Go deeper: Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

San Francisco

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Biden bolsters California disaster declaration as storm death toll rises

The president is due to visit California on Thursday.

In an aerial view, floodwaters cover an agricultural area after the Salinas River overflowed its banks on January 13, 2023 in Salinas, California.

Floodwaters cover an agricultural area near Salinas, California, after the Salinas River overflowed its banks on Jan. 13.  Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres slammed fossil fuel companies, singling out ExxonMobil, in a grim table-setting speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: Addressing the world's elite, Guterres elevated the findings of a study published last week in the journal Science, which showed that Exxon's own climate research accurately predicted the pace and severity of global warming. (Exxon disputed the findings.)

Despite that information, the study found, the company chose to publicly cast doubt on climate science findings, including UN-sponsored research, for decades. 

What they're saying: "The science has been clear for decades. I’m not talking only about UN scientists, I’m talking even about fossil fuel scientists," Guterres said. 

“We learned last week that certain fossil fuel producers were fully aware in the 1970s that their core product was baking our planet. And just like the tobacco industry, they rode roughshod over their own science." 

The big picture: Guterres' speech comes at a fraught time of simmering conflicts and a deadly pandemic. 

Powerful divides are getting harder to bridge, Guterres warned, and tackling climate change is caught up in this maelstrom. 

The bottom line: Guterres implored political and business leaders to speed the transition away from fossil fuels and reject plans to expand fossil fuel production.

UN leader bashes fossil fuel producers at Davos

"Some in big oil peddled the big lie," he said.

Photo illustration of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres beside oil barrels with shapes in the background.

Photo Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photo: Andrej Ivanov/Getty Images

California's water management officials are rushing to capture as much runoff as possible from the state's weeks-long atmospheric river storms in an attempt to alleviate water supply concerns stemming from the ongoing megadrought.

The big picture: The massive amounts of heavy snow from the parade of storms have resulted in a statewide snowpack average of 251% for Jan. 17. Winter snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains provides water supplies during the dry season.  

The lower-elevation rainfall has been helping to boost reservoirs, but it has not been enough to squelch the state's worst drought in 1,200 years, which has been impacting agriculture and grocery prices.

Atmospheric rivers force California to manage floods during drought

The state is simultaneously facing flooding and drought.

Climate change

The big picture

House Science chair seeks to carve out an independent NOAA

Critical climate thresholds may be nearer than thought: study finds

Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season

UN leader bashes fossil fuel producers at Davos

California flooded by yet more powerful atmospheric river storms

Global warming is about to accelerate

All Climate change stories

House Science chair seeks to carve out an independent NOAA

Dangerous ice storm underway as Arctic air surges south

Critical climate thresholds may be nearer than thought: study finds

New Zealand's flood-hit largest city braces for second atmospheric river

First look: Clean water for Texas colonias

Horn of Africa may see record sixth straight failed rainy season

Biden slams climate change doubters while surveying storm damage

Biden bolsters California disaster declaration as storm death toll rises

UN leader bashes fossil fuel producers at Davos