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Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

While France made waves this week by officially banning some short-haul domestic flights, a similar policy is unlikely to take hold in the U.S. anytime soon. 

Driving the news: The French government touted the enactment of the legislation, which bans flights between destinations that can be reached by train in less than two-and-a-half hours, as a first-of-its-kind achievement.

When it comes to attaining the same feat in the U.S., Dan Rutherford, program director at the International Council on Clean Transportation, told the Washington Post that replacing flights of under 500 miles with high-speed rail could reduce emissions.

But, but, but: The U.S. would face significant hurdles in trying to make this a reality.

Short-haul flights made up about half of the U.S. domestic market in 2019, according to the ICCT, which noted that domestic "short train routes are relatively rare because they are uncompetitive with cars."

While the U.S. has the most extensive rail network in the world, most of this is dedicated to freight rail, with passenger rail systems lagging behind those of the rest of the world. 

The U.S. also lacks the high-speed rail systems that make train travel so convenient elsewhere, and plans to expand the country’s high-speed rail have failed.

Short-haul flights are also a source of great profit for airlines.

Flights between Honolulu and Maui (about 100 miles), Atlanta and Orlando (402 miles), and Las Vegas and Los Angeles (225 miles) represent some of the U.S.' busiest domestic flight routes, according to data from OAG Aviation.

Reality check: France's ban is less revolutionary than it appears. 

Filled with exceptions for France's busiest airport and connecting flights, in practice, the legislation will result in cuts to only three travel routes, the New York Times reported.

The three cut routes — between the Paris-Orly airport and the cities of Bordeaux, Nantes and Lyon — account for only 5,000 flights per year, according to Le Monde. 

The closure of these routes will only reduce annual air transport emissions by 55,000 tons of CO2, French authorities have disclosed. 

The aviation industry emits roughly 1 billion tons of CO2 annually.

Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ben Geman: Beyond the logistical challenges, there's little political appetite in the U.S. for these kinds of restrictions on consumer behavior and choices.

Why the U.S. likely won’t follow France’s short-haul flight ban

U.S. passenger rail systems lag behind those of the rest of the world.

Air France planes arrive at Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle airport, near Paris. Photo: Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images

Transportation

The Supreme Court limited the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) ability to oversee certain bodies of water on Thursday, determining that the agency cannot regulate wetlands isolated from larger bodies of water.

Why it matters: It's the court's second major decision in recent years that dents the EPA's ability to control pollution after it imposed major constraints on the agency's authority to limit carbon emissions from power plants under the Clean Air Act last year.

The Supreme Court's ruling overturns a decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals' 9th Circuit, which sided with the EPA in 2021.

Details: The case settled by the court centered on an Idaho couple, Michael and Chantell Sackett, who sought to build a home on property that the EPA considered a protected wetland under the Clean Water Act.

The act allows the agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to regulate discharges of pollutants into "waters of the United States." The act doesn't define "waters of the United States," rather, it gives the EPA and the Army the authority to define the term through regulations.

The question before the court was to determine what wetlands should be considered U.S. waters under the Clean Water Act.

What they're saying: Justice Samuel Alito wrote in the opinion that the Clean Water Act only extends to wetlands "with a continuous surface connection" to larger regulated bodies of water. 

The decision throws out a test created in a previous case by former Justice Anthony Kennedy, who said wetlands that have a “significant nexus” to nearby regulated waters should be considered protected.

The court ruled unanimously in favor of the Sacketts, though split 5-4 in reasoning for the decision. 

Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett all joined Alito's majority opinion. 

Justice Elena Kagan wrote in a concurring opinion that the court — through its recent rulings on the Clean Water Act and Clean Air Act — has appointed "itself as the national decision-maker on environmental policy" and has not allowed the laws to work as Congress intended them to.

"Because that is not how I think our Government should work—more, because it is not how the Constitution thinks our Government should work—I respectfully concur in the judgment only," she wrote.

In another concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote that the court was right to throw out the nexus test and rule that the Sackett's property was not a protected wetland, though he disagreed with the court's new "continuous" determination.

"By narrowing the Act’s coverage of wetlands to only adjoining wetlands, the Court’s new test will leave some long-regulated adjacent wetlands no longer covered by the Clean Water Act, with significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States," Kavanaugh wrote.

Justice Clarence Thomas also delivered a concurring opinion.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement on Thursday that the court's decision "erodes longstanding clean water protections."

“As a public health agency, EPA is committed to ensuring that all people, regardless of race, the money in their pocket, or community they live in, have access to clean, safe water," Regan said. "We will never waver from that responsibility."

Go deeper: EPA issues plan to clamp down on power plant carbon emissions

EPA issues plan to clamp down on power plant carbon emissions

Supreme Court limits EPA's regulatory control over certain wetlands

It's the court's second major decision in recent years that dents the EPA's ability to control pollution.

The Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., in May 2022. Photo: Celal Gunes/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Supreme Court

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

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The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which officially kicks off June 1, is set to feature a tug of war between a developing El Niño in the Pacific, and unusually warm waters throughout the Atlantic, NOAA forecasters say.

Why it matters: The seasonal outlook, released Thursday, helps inform storm planning for the federal, state and local governments. 

Zoom in: The NOAA 2023 hurricane season outlook calls for a 40% chance of a near normal hurricane season, and a 30% chance of either a below or above average season. 

In terms of numbers, the agency calls for 12 to 17 named storms to form, of which 5 to 9 will become hurricanes and 1 to 4 will be "major" storms of Category 3 intensity or greater. 

This compares to the 30-year average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Between the lines: A developing El Niño in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean would typically indicate a below average Atlantic hurricane season, and above average eastern Pacific season, is likely. 

El Niño events can reduce Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane activity by increasing winds in the upper atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic.

Such wind shear can disrupt incipient storms before they can strengthen.

However, heading into this summer, sea surface temperatures in the typical hurricane forming regions of the Atlantic along with most other areas are unusually warm for this time of year. 

That would suggest an unusually active season lies ahead. 

What they're saying: For now, NOAA is threading the needle between the two influences, in addition to others.

“It’s kind of like a clash between those big factors,” said NOAA hurricane seasonal forecaster Matt Rosencrans at a press conference. 

He added that the sea surface temperature anomalies are likely to stick around, particularly in the tropical Atlantic, through the summer. 

The intrigue: The Atlantic is still in the midst of a largely natural multi-decade upswing in hurricane activity, though human-caused climate change is driving an increase in sea surface temperatures there and around the world. 

Globally-averaged ocean temperatures have been off the charts during April into May. 

Threat level: Climate change is already having detectable changes to nature's largest and most powerful storms. 

A warmer atmosphere can carry more water vapor, which gets wrung out as heavy rains over land. On average, storms are now wetter than they used to be. 

In addition, increasing ocean and air temperatures are leading to more high-end, major hurricanes, but are not thought to be increasing the total number of storms overall. 

As was seen with Hurricanes Ida, Michael and Ian in recent years, hurricanes are exhibiting a greater tendency to rapidly intensify, leaping storm categories in short periods of time and potentially catching emergency managers off guard. 

Also, the magnitude of storms' rapid intensification is increasing in many parts of the world.

Of note: Some studies show that tropical storms and hurricanes are moving more slowly at landfall, related to slackening steering currents, though this is an area of active research. Slow-moving storms have a greater potential to cause inland flooding.

The big picture: Other forecast groups have also been seeking a balance between the potential El Niño and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. 

The University of Pennsylvania put out a new outlook calling for between 12 and 20 named storms, with a "best guess" of 16.

A separate early outlook issued last month from forecasters at Colorado State University projects a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season

Yes, but: While the seasonal outlook helps spur storm preparation activities, it provides little to no guidance on where such storms may ultimately strike. 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

magnitude of storms' rapid intensification

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Atlantic hurricane season to feature duel between likely El Niño and hotter Atlantic

A developing El Niño to compete with a warm Atlantic during hurricane season

Satellite image of Hurricane Ian as it made landfall in southwestern Florida in 2022.

Satellite view of Hurricane Ian as the storm approached Florida on Sept. 28, 2022. Image: NOAA via Getty Images)

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A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Global energy investment in clean energy and fossil fuels

Data: International Energy Agency; Chart: Axios Visuals

Investment in climate-friendly energy is extending its lead over fossil fuels, yet spending trends in both buckets are out of step with Paris Agreement goals, a new report finds.

Driving the news: The International Energy Agency just dropped its latest annual look at investments in "clean" and fossil energy.

"Clean" includes wind, solar, batteries, EVs, nuclear, efficiency, grid tech and carbon capture.

🧮 One wild stat: IEA sees 2023 solar investment, at $380 billion, outpacing oil exploration and production spending for the first time.

The comparison is limited — transportation and other markets are far bigger sources of oil demand than power.

But it encapsulates wider trends afoot. Also, the lines between transport fuels and power are blurring as EVs rise.

The big picture: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has boosted clean energy, even as it prompted a near-term "scramble" for oil and gas, IEA finds.

The oil and gas sector is boosting investment in exploration and production — but not compared with high profits.

Forces including investor pressure for returns, and questions about long-term demand, mean that "only large Middle Eastern national oil companies are spending much more in 2023 than they did in 2022."

Threat level: The overall picture is mixed. 

"Clean" investment is growing, but the world is behind the eight ball on the emissions cuts needed for Paris goals.

If you look at IEA's hypothetical pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050, investment in only a "handful" of technologies — including solar and battery storage — is on track.

Meanwhile, "coal investment this year is on course to reach nearly six times the levels envisaged in 2030 in the Net Zero Scenario," IEA notes.

"Clean" energy spending is outpacing fossil fuels

But there's still a ways to go to meet Paris Agreement goals.

clean energy

A line chart showing Global energy investment in clean energy and in fossil fuels. In 2016, investment in clean energy overtook investment in fossil fuels, and kept growing from there. It's estimated that in 2023, $1.7t will be invested in clean energy and $1.1t in fossil fuels.

An influential climate panel tasked with guiding the creation of a new global carbon market has sparked widespread concern in the nascent carbon removal industry, after it cast doubt on whether it would be counted as a carbon offset. 

The big picture: On Wednesday, More than 100 companies and organizations sent a letter to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's (UNFCCC) secretariat objecting to the draft guidance. 

The draft includes a technical note that states that "engineered carbon removal activities... do not contribute to sustainable development," and fail to serve the goals of the carbon market under the Paris Agreement. 

The language was written by what is known as the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body, part of the U.N. climate bureaucracy spearheading the future of global carbon markets. 

The proposal, which is not formally approved yet, also calls carbon removal solutions "technologically and economically unproven, especially at scale," and says the technology poses "unknown environmental and social risks."

State of play: The language has provoked a rapid and growing backlash from the carbon removal sector, with the open letter submitted Wednesday and other objections filed before the comment period ends Thursday.

There are huge stakes for carbon removal companies and funders, if the current language were to find its way into rules being considered at COP28 in Dubai later this year. 

It would mean that companies that have been pouring money into carbon removal, including most recently J.P. Morgan, may not be able to count their investments as carbon offsets. 

This could chill the development of technologies such as direct air capture. 

In its most recent climate science assessment, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded removal is needed in order to bring global carbon emissions to net zero, and eventually net negative, while also slashing emissions from fossil fuels and other sources. 

Between the lines: "CDR is a new commercial sector, and the range of potential pathways are at varying stages of discovery, development, and deployment," the letter to the UNFCCC, coordinated by the Carbon Business Council, states. 

Ben Rubin, executive director and cofounder of the council, told Axios the UNFCCC panel's definition of carbon removal differs markedly from the IPCC's. 

“It would be excellent to see the UN rowing in the same direction on climate action,” he said.

What they're saying: Eve Tamme, founder and managing director at Climate Principles, was among the first to point out the technical note. 

The critical language about carbon removal technologies"is a hugely surprising development because we know that the IPCC has made it very clear that removals are needed" to achieve the Paris targets, she said. 

"It's also very clear that nature-based removal will not be enough. We need engineered removal as well," Tamme added in an interview.

The intrigue: Tamme described the controversy as far more than an internal disagreement within different parts of the U.N., or an issue confined to the weeds of climate policy. 

The rules that are set for the carbon market may be in place for decades, she said. 

The language criticizing "engineered removals" is not just at odds with the IPCC, but it may soon be contrary to countries' own plans for cutting carbon emissions. 

"It just doesn't make sense because countries in their own climate targets are increasingly going to start including engineered removals," Tamme said. 

Our thought bubble: One possibility for how the language originated is that the UNFCCC Secretariat, which provides text and instructions to the panel that wrote the language, may not yet have staff expertise in emerging carbon removal technologies. 

Another factor is that the carbon removal industry may not have been paying close attention to the emerging provisions until now. 

However, the backlash may make its input hard to ignore at this point.

Key UN climate panel casts doubt on future of carbon removal tech

The panel's decisions could help determine whether carbon removal tech is counted on the new carbon offsets market.

Illustration of a ballpoint pen with a red "X"  in place of the ballpoint

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Outdoor retailer Patagonia, which is steering profits into fighting climate change, has the top ranking in the 2023 Axios Harris Poll 100 brand reputation survey.

Why it matters: The outdoor apparel company appears to have successfully avoided polarizing battles that have ensnared other big brands, and alienated some consumers.

Driving the news: Patagonia regained the number one slot it held in 2021, after last year staying near the top at number three.

Its "Reputational Quotient" is 83.5 in a survey that tests nine categories like trust, trajectory, products and services, and vision.

Catch up fast: For decades, the company has supported environmental groups and causes with money, visibility and more. But it took a big new step in 2022. 

Patagonia created a legal structure to ensure all profits that aren't reinvested in the company will go toward "fighting the climate crisis." 

It projects an annual dividend of roughly $100 million for the newly created "Holdfast Collective" running the efforts.

The intrigue: While years of surveys from multiple pollsters show Democrats prioritizing climate far more than Republicans, the Patagonia brand has support across the aisle.

Similar shares of Harris survey respondents from each party view the company as having excellent leadership.

And overall, it's the third-highest performing company among both Democrats and Republicans.

Patagonia is also strong among urban (#1) and suburban (#2) respondents, while it's ninth out of 100 among rural respondents.

What we don't know: Patagonia scored very highly, even before last year's pledge that Earth would be its "only shareholder" in perpetuity.

So it's hard to parse whether that propelled them back to #1 on the strength of modestly higher scores in areas including "trajectory" and "products and services."

Yes, but: The percent of Harris respondents who say Patagonia shares their values rose 8.8%.

The data also found that 77% of Americans say they would they respect companies more if they were clear about their values — even if they disagree.

The bottom line: Patagonia is open about trying to put the world on its shoulders, but unlike other big brands, it's not dragging the company down.

Patagonia eco-brand unscathed by polarized climate

The outdoor apparel company appears to have successfully avoided polarizing battles that have ensnared other big brands.

Illustration of the earth wearing a hat, ski goggles, and a neck scarf 

Axios-Harris Poll 100

Mawar gained strength as it lashed Guam and became a super typhoon as it slowly pulled away from the the U.S. territory island in the Western Pacific on Thursday morning local time.

Threat level: The National Weather Service's Guam office warned typhoon warnings remained in effect for the island, which is home to three U.S. military bases. The NWS urged residents to keep safe shelter until the "damaging winds" subsided, as the storm packed maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.

The eye cut a few miles north of Guam, over the Rota Channel.

The storm weakened some on its final approach to the island, knocking its peak winds down but spreading them over a larger area, but it's since strengthened again.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center said the typhoon would threaten the northern Philippines and/or Taiwan next week, and it's forecast to peak as a Category 5 storm while en route.

The big picture: Professional storm chasers positioned on the island showed blinding rains and pounding winds Wednesday evening. The footage came as the southern part of the storm's eyewall — the ring of thunderstorms surrounding the eye, which contain the strongest winds — barreled over the island.

Multiple lightning strikes were reported in that southern portion of the eyewall, which passed over central and southern Guam. 

Of note: It won’t be clear until daytime Thursday how extensive the damage is from the most intense storm to hit the island of 170,000 people in more than two decades.

Guam is an island of major strategic importance to the U.S. military, and it plays host to three bases, including the Andersen Air Force Base, which was closest to the eye on the northern end of the island.

Context: Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified Tuesday when approaching Guam into a high-end Category 4 Super Typhoon, with its winds increasing by 50 mph in 18 hours and minimum central air pressure plummeting. 

In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm is.

Of note: Storms are increasingly undergoing such intensity jumps and the magnitude of intensification is on the increase, due in part to human-caused climate change.

Mawar strengthens into super typhoon after lashing Guam

Typhoon warnings remain in effect for Guam, which has 3 U.S. military bases.

Thursday's energy & environment stories