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Energy & Environment

As the re-intensifying Tropical Storm Ian heads over to the Carolinas on Thursday, Florida is dealing with severe damage in the hurricane's aftermath. 

The big picture: Parts of the Florida mainland experienced widespread power outages and flash flooding as Ian crossed through the state Wednesday after making landfall in the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 hurricane. 

Fort Myers, Punta Gorda, Sanibel Island, Naples and Cape Coral saw damage from flooding on Wednesday.

Homes in Fort Myers Beach were damaged or destroyed by the record-high surge, Axios' Jacob Knutson reports.

An area where homes once stood is seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian on Sept. 29 in Fort Myers Beach. Photo: AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

man biking through a flooded street in Florida

A man rides a bike in a flooded street in Fort Myers on Sept. 29. Photo: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

people sit in a truck in a flooded Florida street

People are seen carrying their belongings at the rear of a truck making its way through a flooded street in Fort Myers on Sept. 29. Photo: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

people clean hurricane debris found around their mobile home

Residents of mobile homes clean up debris in Fort Myers on Sept. 29. Photo: Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images)

An aerial view of a flooded neighborhood in Fort Myers on Sept. 29. Photo: Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

Piled-up boats are seen in Fort Myers on Sept. 29. Photo: Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

An aerial view of damaged homes is seen in Punta Gorda on Sept. 29. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

A vehicle is seen stuck on a submerged road in downtown Punta Gorda on Sept. 29. Photo: Ben Hendren/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Trees fell on the road in downtown Punta Gorda on Sept. 29 due to winds from Hurricane Ian. Photo: Ben Hendren/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

man walking through fallen trees after hurricane

A man walks through debris on a street in Punta Gorda on Sept. 29. Photo: Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

man cleans up debris after a hurricane next to an American flag

Tom Park begins cleaning up in Punta Gorda on Sept. 29. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

People return to a sand-covered street in Bonita Springs on Sept. 29. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

people standing around hurricane debris and a damaged car

People embrace as they survey property damage in Bonita Springs on Sept 29. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Debris is seen across a beach in Bonita Springs on Sept. 29. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Florida begins recovery efforts as Ian moves through state

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In photos: Florida devastated by Hurricane Ian

Parts of the Florida mainland experienced infrastructure damage, widespread power outages and flash flooding.

Damaged homes and debris are shown in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Fla. on Sept. 29. Photo: AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee

Hurricane Ian

As Hurricane Ian hammers southwest Florida, Tampa's lower-income households lack the funds to stock up on hurricane supplies — and rising prices add to that pressure.  

The big picture: Millions of Floridians spent the past few days evacuating or gearing up for the storm. But preparation ahead of a hurricane is an added stressor for the 42% of Hillsborough County’s population — and the 46% of neighboring Pinellas County — that can’t afford the basic cost of living.

Inflation has driven up the average price of groceries. Food costs have increased 11.4% over the last year — the largest annual spike since 1979 — according to a recently-published report by the USDA Economic Research Service. 

Thomas Mantz, CEO of the nonprofit Feeding Tampa Bay, says this is compounding with the impacts of COVID-19 on food insecurity in the Florida region, adding pressure to the nonprofit's bulk purchasing and disproportionately impacting communities of color in the area.  

Black, Latino and Indigenous people in the U.S. are at least twice to three times more likely to live in food insecure households than white people. "There are far more people who are economically unstable than we've seen in many, many years," Mantz told Axios. 

"Families don't have the resources to put food in their own pantries, keep things stocked up, because it's just too expensive."   

Hurricane preparation calls for added investment. The Tampa Bay Times reports that Florida officials advise stocking up one week’s worth of nonperishable food and water per person, as well as pets.

What they’re saying: “It's going to be a challenge for folks if they don't have that capacity to be able to, or have places to store that type of food, [or] purchase that amount of food in that time. Especially now, in an emergency, trying to find enough food,” Elisa DeGregorio, who works for Pinellas County, told Axios. 

DeGregorio is a shelter manager at Clearwater's McMullen-Booth Elementary School, which is serving as an emergency general shelter during Ian.

The shelter is providing three free meals per person per day, although DeGregorio hopes that demand doesn’t outweigh supply — a concern echoed across the region as businesses brace for supply chain issues after Ian. 

Having enough food and water is only one piece of the preparedness picture. Hurricane kits also commonly include wood to board up homes, generators, sandbags, first aid kits, medications, flashlights and batteries, among other items. 

Simply preparing for a major storm can cost thousands of dollars. Evacuations are even more costly. 

"If you're someone who is in an evacuation zone and you have five kids and you're having to go drive two cars across the state, stay in a hotel for a week, that's when those expenses really start to add up really quickly," said Samantha Montano, an emergency management researcher.

"And that's before you even start talking about if your home is impacted, and then you have recovery costs on top of that." 

Between the lines: Being without the right supplies or resources during a disaster event can have dire consequences — and those that do face these difficulties are typically severely cost-burdened. 

A 2021 Our World In Data report found that the world has seen a “significant reduction” in the number of lives lost connected to disaster events partly due to emergency preparedness.  

And a 2014 study published in the American Journal of Public Health found that among U.S. residents over 50, lower-income respondents had significantly lower rates of disaster preparedness. 

What we're watching: Feeding Tampa Bay serves 10 counties in the region and roughly 1.5 million meals every week, a number Mantz says they expect to see climb in Ian's aftermath. They've already started extra distributions in preparation for the storm's lasting blow.  

"We've been on calls all morning," Mantz told Axios. "All of us are waiting for post-storm, at which point we'll jump in and start moving food into the most impacted areas." 

Hurricane prep: Can’t afford to, can’t afford not to

Inflation is making hurricane preparedness more difficult for Florida's cost-burdened households.

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Follow live news updates on Tropical Storm Ian as it heads toward Georgia and the Carolinas.

Hurricane Ian weakened to a tropical storm early Thursday, but the National Hurricane Center warned it's still battering the Florida Peninsula with strong winds, heavy rains and storm surge.

Driving the news: Since making landfall as a high-end Category 4 storm Wednesday afternoon, Ian has knocked out power to nearly 2.5 million people as it inundated densely populated coastal communities known for attracting tourists and retirees — including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples and Sanibel Island.

More than 2,000 flights into, within or out of the U.S. were canceled as of mid-morning Wednesday, according to flight tracking website FlightAware.

State of play: The storm was moving northeast at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph about 40 miles southeast of Orlando at 6am ET Thursday. It was moving northeast at about 8 mph.

Further weakening was expected as the center of Ian was expected to move across central Florida overnight and Thursday morning, emerging over the warm waters of the Atlantic by late Thursday.

Yes, but: "Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday," the hurricane center said.

Data: National Hurricane Center; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

For the record: Ian had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph when it made landfall on the mainland Florida peninsula 4:35pm Wednesday ET, south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor — just a few mph shy of Category 5 intensity. 

That made it the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the state since Hurricane Michael devastated the Florida panhandle in 2018.

Lightning strikes were observed in the thunderstorms surrounding the eye, a sign of continued intensification through landfall.

The big picture: Ft. Myers, Sanibel Island, Naples and Cape Coral saw damaging flooding on Wednesday. Water pushed inland in many communities, while homes in Ft. Myers were damaged or destroyed from storm surge. 

The NHC increased storm surge forecasts Wednesday morning to as high as 18 feet in parts of southwest Florida, including Charlotte Harbor and Bonita Beach.

If such amounts verified, this would be unprecedented there, and on par with some of the country's highest surge events in history. 

Some parts of Florida received 12-19 inches of rain by Wednesday evening, and heavy rains in northeast Florida prompted at least one issuance of a flash flood emergency on Thursday morning.

It also unleashed life-threatening storm surge flooding across the lower Florida Keys over Tuesday night and was doing the same on the Florida mainland — including the highest surge levels on record in Naples, Florida. 

Fort Myers saw a record-high 7.2 ft surge, according to NOAA.

What they're saying: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) warned at a briefing Wednesday evening "there is going to be damage throughout the whole state."

"Overwhelmingly it's been that surge that’s been the biggest issue and the flooding … as a result," he said. "In some areas, we think it's hit 12 feet."

Zoom in: Potentially "catastrophic" flooding was forecast with widespread rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches across much of the state, per the National Weather Service.

The NWS issued a rare "high risk" outlook for flash flooding for much of the state.

The city was likely to see a storm surge of 4 to 6 feet, lower than areas to the south, due to the storm's track.

Axios Local dispatch, via Ben Montgomery: The approaching storm and a falling tide began emptying the shallows of the Hillsborough River, Old Hillsborough Bay and parts of Upper Tampa Bay Wednesday morning.

Along Tampa's Bayshore Boulevard, the water retreated from the seawall about 50 feet in places, like it did when Hurricane Irma streaked east of the region in 2017.

What we're watching: One of the biggest threats remained storm surge flooding at the coast, which prompted mandatory evacuations in many areas.

Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were in effect for a heavily populated stretch of coastline that included Tampa Bay and the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The NHC called surge heights "potentially historic," and warned that certain locations may be "uninhabitable for an extended period." 

Devastating wind damage has occurred, where the core of the storm moves ashore and barrels inland.

An NWS screenshot of a storm surge forecast for southwest Florida showing surges of up to six feet.

Photo: National Weather Service Miami/Twitter

Climate change-related sea level rise is making surge-related flooding more damaging. 

Storm surge watches, tropical storm watches and warnings, and hurricane watches have been issued extending up and down the east coast of Florida into Georgia and South Carolina.

This is due to the storm's expected track after Florida.

Context: Hurricane Ian rapidly intensified over extremely warm sea surface temperatures straight through landfall.

Climate change favors more instances of rapidly intensifying storms such as Ian, due to the combination of warming seas and a warmer atmosphere that can carry additional amounts of water vapor.

The bottom line: Florida is experiencing a historic storm that could cause billions in damage.

In photos: Hurricane Ian's impact across Florida

How Hurricane Ian compares to the strongest hurricanes that hit Florida

Ian weakens to tropical storm as it pummels Florida

Florida is in the middle of a historic storm that could cause billions in damage.

A satellite image of Hurricane Ian over Florida about 2.20am Thursday ET.

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Science

Hurricane Ian's max sustained winds

Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Note: Category 5 intensity begins at 157 mph; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

Hurricane forecasters' worst nightmare came true on Wednesday morning, when what had been a Category 3 storm Tuesday night suddenly jumped almost to Category 5. 

Why it matters: It used to be rare for storms to keep strengthening until landfall, let alone do so rapidly. Now it is not — and studies show this is a dangerous sign of climate change.

The big picture: Such an intensity leap was made possible by warm ocean temperatures and abundant atmospheric moisture — both factors that climate change enhances. 

During the past several years, there have been multiple storms that rapidly intensified as they neared the Gulf Coast and did so through landfall.

Previously, tropical storms and hurricanes tended to weaken as they neared the northern Gulf Coast in particular, falling victim to cooler waters or stronger jet stream winds. 

But that did not happen with Hurricanes Laura or Ida in 2020 and 2021 — or with Hurricane Michael, which ramped all the way up to a Category 5 storm in the Florida Panhandle in 2018. 

It's not just the U.S. that has been suffering the consequences from rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Consider an example from halfway around the world, which occurred just as Ian was spinning up in the Caribbean. 

At the same time in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, a storm named Noru began swirling toward the Philippines. 

It took forecasters by surprise when it suddenly strengthened from a robust tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 24 hours. 

This was one of the fastest rates of intensification on record, anywhere, and it gave residents of the heavily populated island of Luzon little to no time to prepare.

Threat level: The danger of a rapid intensification shortly before landfall is that people will be caught off guard by the stronger storm, and get stuck in a vulnerable spot for storm surge flooding, damaging winds or both. 

Emergency management officials design their evacuation plans based on storm intensity and movement. Sudden shifts in either one can render their planning inadequate. 

A 155-mph Category 4 storm, which Hurricane Ian became on Wednesday morning, can push a far higher surge inland and bring a catastrophic swath of high winds inland, compared to the 120-mph Category 3 storm that Ian was when most Floridians went to sleep Tuesday night. 

All landfalling storms now contain more dangerous coastal flooding in their arsenals, due to human-caused sea level rise. 

Between the lines: The trends seen in the past several years, together with studies of how hurricanes are changing in a warming world, point to a key role for human-caused climate change.

Warm, tropical waters are the main source of fuel for hurricanes, and the oceans are absorbing about 93% of the extra heat going into the climate system from human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. 

Air temperatures are also increasing, and when that happens, the air can hold more water vapor. This is helping to make hurricanes wetter than they used to be. 

A 2020 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that tropical cyclones are now more likely to reach higher categories across much of the globe, including the Atlantic.

In addition, a 2019 paper in the journal Nature Communications found a trend in Atlantic hurricanes toward more rapid intensifiers during the 1982-2009 period. Computer modeling showed this was unlikely due to natural climate fluctuations alone. 

Yes, but: While forecasters have made great strides in predicting storm tracks several days in advance (though the Ian track forecast was more uncertain than most), intensity forecasts have been stuck. 

With Ian, while forecasters predicted it would intensify rapidly, the trend started later than they anticipated — and then continued through landfall, which they didn't expect. Some forecasts had said the storm would weaken before landfall.

The bottom line: There is research underway to better predict intensity shifts, using new technologies such as Saildrones, satellites and other sensors.

But until we crack the code of how to tell that a storm will leap through categories just before landfall, with enough lead time to act, we are going to be vulnerable to more devastating, and potentially deadly, surprises.

Hurricane Ian's climate warning

The hurricane intensified by 35 mph in just 12 hours, coming close to Category 5 intensity.

Sinking boat amid Hurricane ian off the coast of Punta Gorda, Florida.

Hurricane Ian was pummeling communities across the Florida Peninsula on Thursday morning, a day after making landfall as a major Category 4 storm.

The big picture: Ian weakened to a Category 1 storm overnight, but it was still posing a serious threat with its heavy rains, powerful winds, storm surge and life-threatening flooding as it churned toward Georgia and South Carolina, knocking out power to over 2 million Floridians in its wake.

The scene in Fort Meyer, Florida, after hurricane Ian swept through Sept. 28.

Fort Myer, Florida, after Hurricane Ian swept through on Sept. 28. Photo: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A man runs to a sheltered spot through the wind and rain from Hurricane Ian on September 28, 2022 in Sarasota, Florida.

A man runs to a sheltered spot through the wind and rain from Hurricane Ian on Sept. 28. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

People wade through an area of Tampa inundated with floodwaters on Sept. 28. Photo: Ben Montgomery/Axios

A blown down street sign is seen as the eye of Hurricane Ian passes by in Punta Gorda, Florida on September 28.

A blown down street sign is seen as the eye of Hurricane Ian passes by in Punta Gorda on Sept. 28. Photo: Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images

Flooding in St Lucie, Florida, after Hurricane Ian struck.

Photo: St Lucie Sheriff's Office/Port Lucie Police/Twitter

Go deeper: Climate change made 2020's hurricanes wetter

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The storm poses a serious threat as it churns its way toward Georgia and South Carolina.

A woman gets help climbing from a muddy area in Tampa, Florida, United States on September 28.

A woman gets help climbing from a muddy area of Tampa, Florida, on Sept. 28. Photo: Ben Hendren/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Hurricane Ian was flooding some areas of Florida's west coast with storm surges that could reach up to 18 feet above ground level as it moved across the peninsula after making landfall Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.

Why it matters: Surge numbers that high — 12 to 18 ft — would be unprecedented for the region and some of the highest on record in the U.S.

"Ian battering the Florida peninsula with catastrophic storm surge, winds, and flooding," the NHC said in a 5pm ET update. 

Although the hurricane weakened after making landfall near Pirate Harbor in the afternoon, becoming a Category 1 storm by 11pm, storm surge and flooding threats remained on Thursday — as power outages hit more than 2 million customers in the state.

What they're saying: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) warned at a briefing Wednesday evening there would be damage throughout the entire state.

"Overwhelmingly it's been that surge that’s been the biggest issue and the flooding … as a result," he said. "In some areas, we think it’s hit 12 feet."

The big picture: Storm surge was battering Florida's west coast throughout Wednesday, and 8 to 12 ft was expected  between Bonita Beach and the small island of Chokoloskee in southern Florida, and 6 to 10 ft from Englewood to Longboat Key.

The storm surge was occurring along with high winds, heavy rainfall and considerable flooding.

 Caption: Data: National Hurricane Center/NOAA, Mapbox; Map: Will Chase/Axios 

Zoom in: Ian caused over 9 ft of surge plus the tide level in Naples, Collier County, by 1pm ET Wednesday — a new record for the city, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration monitoring station. At least 6.2 feet of that was the surge itself, which set a record there. 

The Collier County Sheriff's Office said officers were "getting a significant number of calls of people trapped by water in their homes," and the Naples fire station was inundated with about three feet of floodwater. 

In Fort Myers, the city saw a peak 7.26 ft of surge — a record high, per NOAA.

Homes in Fort Myers Beach were damaged or destroyed from the surge, while boats were seen floating through streets in Fort Myers.

Meanwhile, the Caloosahatchee River, which flows into the San Carlos Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, was experiencing 7.2 ft of "moderate flooding" as of around 6:10pm ET, according to a National Weather Service gauge in Fort Myers.

Surge-related flooding was reported on the island of Sanibel and seen on public cameras broadcasting footage of the storm.

A National Ocean Service station near Ft. Myers reported a water level greater than 7 ft, per a 7pm EST NHC update.

Threat level: The NHC considers storm surge, or an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, to be the most deadly and destructive aspect of hurricanes. 

The surge is the result of water being thrust toward the shoreline by the winds moving cyclonically around the storm and can cause "extreme" flooding in coastal areas, especially when it coincides with high tides.

Go deeper: Universal Studios, Disney, stores, schools and more closing for Hurricane Ian

Axios' Andrew Freedman contributed to this story.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Hurricane Ian slams southwest Florida with "catastrophic" storm surge

Storm surge is often the most deadly and destructive aspect of hurricanes.

Sailboats blown by strong winds in Roberts Bay outside Venice, Florida, on Sept. 28.

Sailboats blown by strong winds in Roberts Bay outside Venice, Florida, on Sept. 28. Photo: Pedro Portal/El Nuevo Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Much attention has focused on Hurricane Ian's storm surge flooding coastal areas of Florida, setting records in coastal areas like Fort Myers and Naples. 

But the National Hurricane Center warned in an advisory Wednesday that "widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue across central Florida"  — damage that will last after the storm moves away.

Be Smart: Florida's topography differs when it comes to its inland waters, Tampa-based U.S. Geological Survey hydrologist Kevin Grimsley told Axios Today. 

The panhandle and Tampa Bay area's surface waterways are sloped, but Central Florida is flatter. Add to that the ground is already saturated at this point in the rainy season. 

Threat level: Even when the rain ends, that doesn't mean the flooding will, Grimsley said.

What we're watching: Smaller, urban streams tend to "react and flood very quickly," but larger rivers take longer to build up and flood — and then are equally slow to recede.

"The hurricane moves on here in the next day or two, hopefully," Grimsely said. But "flooding could continue for a week or more."

Of note: Climate change-related sea level rise is making surge-related flooding more damaging.

Go deeper: We haven't built for this climate 

Flooding from Hurricane Ian likely to linger in Florida

"Flooding could continue for a week or more," U.S. Geological Survey hydrologist warns.

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