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Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

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Hurricane Fiona is forecast to strike eastern Canada as a powerful hurricane force post-tropical storm beginning tonight, with officials in Nova Scotia telling residents they "should be preparing today and bracing for impact." 

Why it matters: After lashing Bermuda, Fiona may be one of the most intense storms ever to hit Atlantic Canada when it roars ashore Saturday. It could even set a national intensity record based on its minimum air pressure.

Threat level: The storm is likely to bring widespread damaging winds to Canada, specifically in the region between Halifax and Newfoundland.

Power could be knocked out in some areas for extended periods of time. Pounding surf and damaging storm surge flooding will also affect the Canadian Maritimes.

Fiona, the first major hurricane of this Atlantic hurricane season, is undergoing a transformation into a post-tropical storm, which is causing it to unspool from a tightly wound major hurricane into a sprawling, hurricane-force windstorm most comparable to 2012's Hurricane Sandy. 

The Atlantic Ocean churning as Fiona passes through.

A view from inside Hurricane Fiona southeast of Bermuda on Sept. 22 from an ocean drone operated by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Saildrone, which observed 50-foot waves. GIF: NOAA/Saildrone 

What they're saying: "Fiona is projected to be a significant and historic weather event for Nova Scotia," John Lohr, Nova Scotia's emergency management minister, said in an update on the storm Thursday. 

"In the past few years, Nova Scotians have done the work and prepared for several hurricanes and storms, like Hurricane Teddy in 2020. Luckily, the impacts of those storms were minor. Fiona is different," Lohr added.

"All questions have been removed as to whether this storm will happen. We are now certain. Fiona will impact our province, and it has the potential to be very dangerous."

A government forecast from Friday morning said the "storm will be a severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec."

"This storm will produce very heavy rainfall and severe winds," it continued.

"These winds could cause significant treefall and result in extended utility outages," Environment Canada warned for eastern Nova Scotia on Friday.

"Damage to building cladding and roofing material is likely, including structural damage in certain cases," the warning continued. "This will result in damage to docks and breakwaters. Significant shoreline erosion and large waves are expected where winds blow onshore."

It issued a similar warning for southwest Newfoundland. 

By the numbers: Fiona is expected to hit eastern Nova Scotia with maximum sustained winds up to around 56 miles per hour (90 km per hour) with gusts up 74 mph (120 km/h) and bring between roughly 4 inches to 6 inches (100 to 150 millimeters) of rainfall with higher local amounts possible. 

Southwest Newfoundland could experience maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (100 km/h), max gusts of around 90 mph (140 km/h) and around 3 to 4 inches (70 to 100 mm) of rainfall. 

The lowest-pressure recorded in Canada was 940 millibars in St. Anthony, Newfoundland, in the 1970s, according to CBC.

The current projected minimum central pressure for Fiona is 934 millibars. 

The big picture: Fiona hammered Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic earlier this week, leaving millions of people on the islands without power and causing at least five deaths.

Some 8,000 customers were without power in Bermuda Friday as the hurricane swept near the British territory.

Context: Hurricanes are becoming more intense and damaging from human-caused climate change and global warming, enabling them to shed heavier amounts of rainfall and stay stronger further north.

Biden admin to cover Hurricane Fiona recovery costs for next month

Atlantic hurricane season still looks unusually active, NOAA warns

Hurricane Fiona to wallop Canada as one of its strongest storms on record

A Friday morning forecast said Fiona "will be a severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec."

Canada

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

The United Nations General Assembly this week gave hints of a coming clash between developing nations and the industrialized world over how to compensate vulnerable nations that are being hit hardest by climate change.

Why it matters: With climate disasters taking a mounting toll in vulnerable countries, much of the focus at November's COP27 climate summit in Egypt may be on the responsibility of industrialized nations to provide funding to those countries for climate damage they did not cause.

Driving the news: The topic of what is known under the UN climate treaty as "loss and damage" is fraught, particularly with the U.S., since funds going toward compensation are seen by critics as an admission of liability.

Securing the votes in Congress for climate adaptation funding, let alone loss and damage issues, is controversial. This hamstrings U.S. negotiators at climate summits.

Zoom in: UN Secretary-General António Guterres made clear in his speech to world leaders that a successful COP27 outcome must include funding for loss and damage.

He proposed that some of this money come from oil-and-gas companies' "windfall profits" during this time of soaring energy and food costs.

In a video released just before the New York summit, Egyptian foreign minister Sameh Shoukry, host of COP27, outlined a list of priorities that includes loss and damage.

Such an outcome, Shoukry said, would provide developing countries with "means and resources to avert, minimize and address" such climate consequences.

Between the lines: The Alliance of Small Island States, a coalition of some of the most vulnerable nations to global warming, plans to push at COP27 for the creation of a new multilateral fund for loss and damage under the 1992 UN climate treaty.

Michai Robertson, the alliance's lead negotiator for climate finance, told Axios in an interview that loss and damage are "connected to this concept of climate justice and common responsibility."

He said paying into such a fund is a matter of solidarity. The whole world is experiencing global warming, though some countries are more responsible for causing it than others, he added.

Robertson said he, along with other members of the AOSIS negotiating team, was discouraged by John Kerry, the top U.S. climate diplomat, who at a Tuesday event bristled at a loss and damage fund.

What they're saying: "You can't just set up a [funding] facility in six weeks. Let's be serious about this," Kerry said in response to a loss and damage question.

"Where's the money coming from? Do you think this Republican Congress, where we couldn't get one vote for this legislation, is going to step up and do loss and damage? Good luck."

UN General Assembly previews climate summit conflicts

This fraught topic may take center stage at COP27 in Egypt.

Photo illustration of Gen Guterres in front of bursting shapes, including one filled with images of greenhouse gas emissions

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios. Photo: Mark Baker-Pool/Getty Images

Climate change

For dozens of tribal communities in western Alaska, damage from Typhoon Merbok — fueled by climate change — deepens food insecurity. 

The big picture: Alaska’s winter is just weeks away, and disaster recovery typically takes years.

Last weekend, the remnants of Merbok lashed 1,300 miles along the western coast of Alaska with the strongest September storm ever recorded in the Bering Sea. 

Floods from the storm caused power outages, which wiped out subsistence stores, while damaging water and sewage systems, homes and roads — affecting sources of food and livelihood.

Multiple power outages that have been reported across the affected communities have resulted in the spoilage of the subsistence food gathered throughout the year to last through winter. 

Without these stores to rely on, food insecurity becomes a looming concern for many in western Alaska's remote towns and villages.

Driving the news: In Iñupiat communities like Shaktoolik, the storm destroyed the town’s protective berm, built to keep the rising seas out. That left the roughly 324 residents, 98% of whom are Alaska Native, vulnerable to floods to come.  

Unalakleet, which had a population of 768 as of the last census and is 58% Alaska Native, was among one of several villages that suffered damaged water supply systems, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Nome, a town of nearly 4,000 residents, 57% of whom are Alaska Native, was hit by severe flooding, erosion and power outages. 

Among the hardest hit with power outages and flooding was Golovin, a village of roughly 142 people, 92% of whom are Alaska Native. 

The backstory: Food insecurity was a problem in Alaska’s rural communities even before the storm. 

Roughly one in nine Alaskans are food insecure, and the more rural areas have the highest rates of insecurity, according to the nonprofit Feeding America. 

A 2022 study published in the journal Advances of Nutrition found that 45.7% of Native Americans and Alaska Natives — an estimated 3.1 million people — are thought to be food insecure. 

And climate change is contributing to the loss of traditional food sources for Indigenous communities.

Rapidly warming temperatures are driving declines in salmon populations, shrinking seal-hunting seasons and causing harmful algal blooms — all of which is linked to rising food insecurity in the region, Rick Thoman, a climate scientist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, told Axios.

How it works: Rebuilding after a storm disrupts traditional food harvesting that is central to subsistence economy.

Take hunting, which is key to a subsistence lifestyle, or living off the land — both culturally significant to Alaska’s Indigenous nations and central to their sovereignty.

At this time of year especially, hunting is important to rural communities that are stocking up food for the winter. But with flooded streets, damaged buildings and homes, and power outages, people aren't going to be hunting — they're going to be focused on disaster recovery.

“Hunting in the Lower 48 is a recreational activity. In western Alaska, it's how you feed your family,” Thoman said. 

The latest: Jeremy Zidek, a spokesperson for the Alaska Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, told Axios that around 50 communities were affected, although the full extent of the damage is still unknown. 

Zidek confirmed that the state has reports of damage to community and individual food stores from the storm. Relief teams are visiting the most hard-hit areas and “assessing food and other needs.” 

Nome Eskimo Community tribal member Darlene Trigg lost her subsistence cabin, which was built by her family, in the storm. “It was the primary place that my family was able to subsist from,” Trigg told Axios in a written statement. 

“My dad and mom made sure we all had subsistence foods and it all happened in that building. It's a part of the foundation of who I am. It's built into my identity." 

Alaskan tribal communities confront food insecurity after storm

The damage from ex-Typhoon Merbok — fueled by climate change — deepens food insecurity.

Photo illustration of coastal Alaska Native fishermen and caribou hunters. 

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Andrew Burton, Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Sneak Peek

Axios Sneak Peek

Biden officials have considered trying to oust World Bank President David Malpass, who took office during the Trump administration, because they believe he's weak on climate, according to people familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Administration officials are deeply concerned by Malpass' failure to answer this week when asked if climate change was caused by humans. His response provides ammunition to officials who want Biden to spend some political capital to attempt to remove him.

But officials know that replacing Malpass would be a messy process and they are unsure how — or even if — the U.S. can orchestrate his ouster. 

Malpass was confirmed by the bank's board of executive directors, which the White House doesn't control.

State of play: Malpass, a Trump holdover, was viewed suspiciously by the Biden administration from the beginning. That suspicion has now been confirmed. And he's been on thin ice for months.

Malpass' refusal to acknowledge fossil fuels were warming the planet set off international furor, including calls to resign.

Malpass went into damage control Thursday, emailing a clarification to staff and saying on CNN: "It’s clear that greenhouse gas emissions are coming from man-made sources, including fossil fuels ... I’m not a denier."

Reality check: The fact that Biden hasn't made a change suggests that there's some internal resistance to ousting Malpass.

Context: The World Bank, based in Washington, uses capital contributions from member countries to provide loans to the developing world to help alleviate poverty and promote economic growth. 

In the past several years, the bank has increasingly turned its focus to financing projects that will reduce carbon emissions. Critics, including Gore, want the bank to do more on climate change.

Between the lines: Ushering out the World Bank president could upset a delicate balance — the U.S. traditionally gets to pick the president of the World Bank, while the European Union selects the head of the International Monetary Fund. 

The bank’s presidency runs for five years. So the new U.S. president often inherits bank presidents from the opposite party.

Malpass is former Bear Stearns economist and Treasury official in the Trump administration. His term is up in 2024.

What we're watching: At a New York Times climate event this week, former Vice President Al Gore called for a World Bank shakeup, saying it's "ridiculous to have a climate denier the head of the World Bank."

Some Biden officials have gone as far as gaming out potential replacements — including Gore and former Secretary of State John Kerry, who is now Biden's climate envoy. Biden's thinking isn't known. 

Kerry has been a forceful advocate for getting the World Bank more focused on climate. Asked at the Times event if the administration has confidence in Malpass, Kerry deflected: "I can’t comment on what the status is of an individual — that is the president’s decision."

A Gore spokesperson told Axios: "VP Gore strongly believes that there needs to be new leadership at the World Bank, but has no intention of pursuing the role himself and would not accept it if offered."

Other possibilities for Malpass's job include former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Raj Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation and former head of USAID.

The intrigue: Countries from the so-called "Global South" have been looking for an opportunity to claim the top job for a candidate from Africa, Latin American, Asia or Oceania.

Biden officials have discussed who could fit that bill. Options include Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian-American economist who now heads the World Trade Organization, and Minouche Shafik, an Egyptian-born British-American economist who is director of the London School of Economics.

What they're saying:  "We expect the World Bank Group to be a global leader of climate ambition ... We have [made] — and will continue to make — to make that expectation clear to World Bank leadership," a Treasury spokesman told Axios. 

Malpass' remarks "were considered damaging, there’s no doubt about it," said Mark Malloch-Brown, the president of the Open Society Foundations and a former World Bank official. 

"It’s a big problem," he said. "These institutions don’t serve the agenda of their leader, but ultimately of their government owners. And their unambiguous priority is the fight against climate change." 

Editor's note: This story was updated to include a statement from a spokesperson for  former Vice President Al Gore.

Scoop: Biden administration may try to oust World Bank head

David Malpass is a holdover from the Trump administration who some officials see as weak on climate.

David Malpass. Photo: Leigh Vogel/Getty Images for Concordia Summit

Joe Biden Cabinet

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Hurricane Fiona's powerful winds and heavy rains were pummeling Bermuda morning as the Category 4 storm brushed close to the Atlantic island en route to northeastern Canada on Friday morning.

Threat level: Some 8,000 customers were without power in Bermuda as Fiona swept near the British territory, the island's Royal Gazette reports. The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) tweeted at 3am Friday that warnings were "in effect for what looks to be a historic storm for eastern Canada."

"This storm is going to hit us, folks," said Mike Savage, mayor of Halifax in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia Thursday, urging residents to prepare for Fiona's possible landfall, per CTV News. "It's going to hit us in the face."

State of play: Hurricane watches and warnings were in effect over much of coastal Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island, with the CHC warning of a "severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec."

Meanwhile, hurricane conditions were expected to continue in Bermuda for several hours, according to a 2am advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

What we're watching: The CHC expects Fiona to threaten Nova Scotia waters on Friday night night, passing through Cape Breton Saturday morning, and then reaching the Quebec Lower North Shore and Southeastern Labrador early Sunday, with storm surges expected in several places.

The big picture: Fiona has been linked to at least five deaths, including two in Puerto Rico after the storm caused widespread destruction as it flooded the U.S. territory, knocking out power to the entire island on Sunday. Just under 1 million customers were still without power on Friday morning, per PowerOutage.US. 

President Biden has declared a major disaster in Puerto Rico and announced Thursday that the federal government will cover 100% of costs for the next month to help with recovery efforts.

 The storm was also blamed for two deaths in the Dominican Republic and one in the French island of Guadeloupe — both of which also experienced widespread power outages as Fiona swept through.

Deadly Hurricane Fiona lashes Bermuda ahead of expected Canada hit

Canadian officials are warning of a "severe event for Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec."

A NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Fiona near Bermuda.

hurricanes

After 230 whales were found washed up on Tasmania's west coast early Wednesday, only 35 remained alive after waves took a toll on the animals, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports.

The latest: Rescue efforts were continuing in the island state, located off the Australian mainland's southeast coast, on Thursday afternoon local time.

The primary focus was on the rescue and release of the 35 surviving animals, the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service told AP.

The big picture: The whales were found at Ocean Beach in Macquarie Harbour, which has a  dangerous entrance known as Hell's Gate.

This is the second mass whale stranding in two days, after 14 dead sperm whales were found beached earlier this week, per AP.

What they're saying: "Marine conservation experts from the Department of Natural Resources and Environment are responding," the Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service said when the whales were first found.

Whales beached in Australia along Tasmania's west coast on Sept. 21. Photo: Huon Aquaculture/Getty Images

Flashback: Tasmania's largest mass whale stranding took place exactly two years ago, when about 470 long-finned pilot whales were stranded on sandbars in a harbor. About 111 whales were rescued, but the remaining died.

Rescuers try to save a beached whale in Macquarie Harbour on Sept. 25, 2020. Photo: Mell Chun/AFP via Getty Images

Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect that most of the stranded whales died and with more details on rescue efforts. 

This story has also been corrected to reflect Tasmania is located southeast of Australia, not southwest.

Most of 230 whales stranded on beach in Tasmania die

This is the second mass whale stranding in two days reported on the island.

An aerial view of the mass whale stranding on Tasmania's west coast on Sept. 21. Photo: NRE Tas/Getty Images

Wildlife

Experts are torn after two deadly mass whale strandings in Tasmania this week made international headlines, but some have floated theories for why the incidents happened.

The big picture: The Tasmanian Department of Natural Resources and Environment said in a statement that it "will assess the scene and the situation to plan an appropriate response." It response has been guided by a manual that's undergone revision since Tasmania's largest-ever mass whale stranding in 2020.

"Whale strandings are a complete mystery," marine expert Vanessa Pirotta told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, "but what's really unusual here is that this is the second stranding for this week."

Details: Most of the 230 whales stranded on a beach in Tasmania this week have died, days after 14 dead sperm whales were found beached.

State of play: The ABC reports a few common theories for why these incidents happen:

Misnavigation: "So one could be misnavigation," ABC's marine expert Vanessa Pirotta said, adding environmental factors could also potentially come into it.

Herding: The fact that pilot whales are "herd species" could be a contributing factor, according to retired veterinarian David Obendorf, who previously worked with the Tasmanian environment department. 

The calendar: "There are certain times of the year, and locations, that are prone to having a frequency of whale trappings," Obendorf told ABC. 

Geography: The beach topography and tidal conditions could make an environment more susceptible to strandings, Obendorf added. If whales are unable to use their echolocation, they can't navigate deeper water and get embedded in the sand, which ultimately can lead to drowning.

Another expert agreed that Tasmania's topography makes it somewhat of a "whale trap" since the coast is close to the shelf edge where it drops off.

"Complete mystery": Experts baffled after back-to-back strandings killed hundreds of whales

Experts say there are a few common theories for why these mass whale strandings keep happening.

Rescuers release a stranded pilot whale back into the ocean at Macquarie Heads on the west coast of Tasmania on Sept. 22. Photo: Glenn Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden approved a major disaster declaration for Puerto Rico and ordered federal aid to assist with recovery efforts in the areas affected by deadly Hurricane Fiona, the White House announced Wednesday evening.

Driving the news: Local officials told AP Wednesday they were having difficulty trying to reach stranded residents days after Fiona swept through, cutting off areas in "at least six municipalities" after triggering heavy rains, mudslides and flooding that destroyed bridges, roads and property.

The remains of a bridge in Rio Grande de Arecibo, Puerto Rico, after Hurricane Fiona swept through.

The big picture: Fiona knocked out power to the entire island, and Gov. Pedro Pierluisi requested the major disaster declaration on Tuesday.

Pierluisi tweeted his thanks to Biden and Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator Deanne Criswell for the declaration, which he said would ensure towns had additional FEMA help to assist in storm damage recovery.

By the numbers: Over a million people were still without power and more than 450,000 had no running water or only intermittent service in the U.S. territory on Wednesday, according to government data.

What they're saying: Criswell said at a briefing in Puerto Rico on Wednesday after visiting affected areas that initial recovery efforts were about "stabilizing the incident and bringing the communities to a level that they can function."

Then officials would look at moving into rebuilding infrastructure to be more resilient "so that they can withstand future impacts."

 Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Rescue crews in Puerto Rico struggle to reach residents cut off by Fiona

FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell visited areas in Puerto Rico affected by the deadly storm today.

Firefighters from the DOE Barceloneta carried rescue a 91-year-old woman who was trapped in her home after a flood.

Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, firefighters rescue a 91-year-old woman on Tuesday after flooding from Hurricane Fiona. Photo: Puerto Rico Firefighters Corps/Twitter

Puerto Rico

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Friday's energy & environment stories