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Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

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Tropical Storm Fiona is nearing the French island of Guadeloupe, and is forecast to pass close enough to Puerto Rico this weekend to bring tropical storm conditions and up to a foot of rain. 

The big picture: The storm, which packed maximum sustained winds of 50 mph as of 5 p.m. ET, is forecast to slowly intensify, possibly to the cusp of hurricane intensity, before making landfall in the Dominican Republic on Sunday night into early Monday morning. 

Tropical storm warnings, indicating tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) are likely somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours, are in effect for:

Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten. Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. 

Parts of the Dominican Republic are under a tropical storm watch.  

While the storm's winds may cause damage to trees and poorly built structures, heavy rains, flooding and mudslides are T.S. Fiona's greatest threat. This is particularly the case in the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola as well as Puerto Rico. 

Data: National Hurricane Center; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

Zoom in: Tropical Storm Fiona has been battling against a hostile environment for days, with strong upper-level winds shearing off the main region of thunderstorms away from the center of circulation. 

Yet the storm has been maintaining and lately, even improving its structure. Until Friday afternoon, the tropical storm had been moving a bit south of west, which has implications for how close it may come to the U.S. mainland. 

Conditions are expected to become more favorable for the storm to intensify as it slides just south of Puerto Rico and nears the Dominican Republic late Sunday. 

Then as it spins towards the Bahamas early next week, computer models are hinting that it is likely to intensify, possibly into a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday. 

However, 5-day hurricane intensity forecasts are less reliable compared to storm track forecasts at that time frame. The National Weather Service is working to narrow this gap through computer modeling, in-situ storm observations and other initiatives. 

Yes, but: It's not yet clear how significant a threat this storm poses to the Bahamas, given that the right conditions in the atmosphere could allow it to intensify quickly north of Hispaniola. 

It is also not yet known how significant a threat the storm poses to the East Coast of the U.S. 

By Wednesday, there may be a pathway for the storm to curve north-northeastward, out to sea, between a cold front moving in from the west, and an area of high pressure to the east. 

The corridor in between these two weather systems may provide an offramp of sorts for this storm. 

The bottom line: It will take a couple more days for the long-term track forecast to become clearer. 

Tropical Storm warning for Puerto Rico as Fiona nears

Forecasters are watching this storm carefully.

Satellite image showing Tropical Storm Fiona nearing the French island of Guadeloupe. 

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Fiona on Sept. 16, 2022. (CIRA/RAMMB) 

hurricanes

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed "some of the nation’s most aggressive climate measures in history" to combat human-caused climate change into law on Friday.

Why it matters: The legislative package "complements" the $54 billion in climate funding included in the state's budget earlier this year, Newsom's office said. The new laws come as the state nears the end of a harsh summer that brought record-breaking heat that tested its power grid and contributed to major wildfires.

What they're saying: “This month has been a wake-up call for all of us that later is too late to act on climate change. California isn’t waiting any more,” Newsom said in a statement Friday.

"Together with the Legislature, California is taking the most aggressive action on climate our nation has ever seen. We’re cleaning the air we breathe, holding the big polluters accountable, and ushering in a new era for clean energy," he added.

"That’s climate action done the California Way – and we’re not only doubling down, we’re just getting started.” 

The big picture: The laws also require the state to stop contributing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2045, which will require it to slash emissions by 85%.

They also put additional requirements on new oil wells, such how close they can be to homes, schools, hospitals, and other buildings.

California finalized a plan last month to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035 as part of a major push toward electric vehicle adoption.

More than 6,300 wildfires have scorched around 351,000 acres and destroyed more than 760 buildings or structures in the state so far this fire season, according to statistics from Cal Fire. 

Go deeper: Heat wave in West breaks records, threatens California grid

California Gov. Newsom signs "sweeping" new climate measures

The new laws in part require the state to stop contributing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by 2045.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaking in Los Angeles in August 2022.

Photo: Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images

California

Climate change

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

At least nine people were killed and four were missing from flooding caused by heavy rainfall across Italy's central Marche region on Friday, Italian wire service ANSA reports.

The big picture: Hospitals in the area had treated around 50 people for injuries from the flooding, while rescue operations were launched for Senigallia, Barbara and Cantiano and other more remote towns in the Apennine Mountains, according to AP.

1,300 people in Barbara were without drinking water, and two children were among those missing.

Senigallia and Cantiano were among the worst-hit cities.

By the numbers: Italy's civil protection agency said the region received 15.75 inches of rain in two to three hours, which is about a third of its annual amount, according to Reuters.

State media reported that the town of Cantiano received 16.53 inches of rain in a few hours, The Guardian reports.

Human-caused climate change and global warming are making heavy precipitation events more common and more intense in certain parts of the world, as warm air holds more moisture and warmer oceans add more water vapor to the atmosphere

Go deeper: Climate change worsened Pakistan's flooding rains, study finds

At least 9 dead from flooding in central Italy

Four people were still missing, and hospitals had treated around 50 people for injuries.

People cleaning outside a flooded house in Pianello di Ostra, Italy, on Sept. 16.

People cleaning outside a flooded house in Pianello di Ostra, Italy, on Sept. 16. Photo: Alessandro di Meo/ANSA/AFP via Getty Images

Flooding

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Climate and progressive groups are launching a $10 million, 12-week ad campaign touting the new energy law, an effort targeted at young people and communities of color.

Driving the news: The ads begin Monday on streaming services and social media platforms in states including Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and a few others.

They're designed to "educate voters" about the law's benefits, per the rollout from Climate Power, the League of Conservation Voters, Black Progressive Action Coalition (BPAC), Somos Votantes and the NRDC Action Fund.

"Communities of color have often been left out of conversations about combating climate change, the good jobs created as a means of protecting our natural resources, and decreasing energy costs," BPAC head Adrianne Shropshire said in a statement.

Zoom in: The first three spots are called "Swipe," "Solve It," and "The Facts."

Why it matters: The campaign — which also includes in-state events Climate Power will host — is part of much wider moves by various climate advocates to promote the law's energy and climate provisions.

There's a flurry of election-season activity and the new ads kick off what the groups call a multiyear push.

The big picture: Several states in the buy are midterm battlegrounds. But a Climate Power spokesperson said locations were chosen for reasons including...

They're home to growing clean energy sectors.

The regions are getting hit by climate change including extreme heat and floods.

They've been sites of misinformation campaigns, including efforts targeting BIPOC communities.

Groups unveil climate law ad push ahead of midterms

The new spots target young voters and communities of color.

Animated gif of a finger pointing the earth to the center of the screen

Markets

Axios Markets

Surging electricity costs are a fresh source of inflationary pressure.

Driving the news: This week's Consumer Price Index report showed costs for electricity in the U.S. climbed at their fastest rate in 40 years.   

In August, average electricity prices were nearly 16% higher than they were in August 2021.

Why it matters: Like high gasoline prices, escalating electricity costs act as a tax on consumer spending, potentially slowing the economy.

On a more personal level, it’s a hardship for many families. Over 20 million U.S. households have fallen behind on their utility bills, as Bloomberg recently reported.

Those delinquencies, and the end of pandemic-related moratoriums on utilities cutting service, sets the stage for a “tsunami of shutoffs,” one observer told  Bloomberg. 

The big picture: Surging American electricity costs are a distant but direct consequence of the Russian war on Ukraine, which created arguably the biggest shock to the global energy system since the oil crisis of the 1970s. 

How it works: Prior to the war, Russia was the main supplier of Europe's imported energy in the form of oil, natural gas and coal. 

Since the invasion, sanctions and embargoes disrupted those supplies. (Russia just cut off all natural gas flows to Germany via its Nordstream 1 pipeline under the Baltic sea, for instance.)        

European prices for these products exploded higher as a result.

Those high prices attracted imports from around the world — including from the U.S., via stateside export terminals that liquefy the gas for overseas shipping.

To compete with high European prices, U.S. natural gas prices have risen too — though not as much. The U.S. benchmark for wholesale natural gas is up about 70% over the last 12 months, while the European benchmark has skyrocketed by roughly 240%. 

Since natural gas is the source of about 40% of U.S. electricity generation, those higher prices feed through to higher monthly bills. 

Yes, but: America's system of regulated utilities, which forces some power providers to get regulators' clearance for price increases, means Americans are being spared the full impact of the gas price spike. 

It's cold comfort — but at least electricity bills aren't up 70%, as natural gas prices are. 

What we're watching: How Washington policymakers respond to the inevitable rise in consumer complaints about soaring electricity bills.

After all, the wave of consumer complaints that followed the upsurge in electricity prices in the 1970s generated a rash of new regulations.   

How Putin's invasion impacts your power bill

U.S. electricity prices are 16% higher than they were a year ago.

Inflation

Economy & Business

Large swaths of Pakistan are underwater from unusually prolific monsoon rains, which have killed nearly 1,500 people. Now a new study shows the connections between the flooding and climate change.

The big picture: The study, released Thursday, shows human-caused global warming may have boosted 5-day rainfall amounts in the hardest-hit areas of Pakistan by up to 50%.

This means that without human-caused global warming, one-third of the rains that fell would not have occurred, researchers said in an online briefing. 

The study notes the large uncertainty regarding how climate change affects monsoon rainfall in Pakistan due to the region's high natural variability from year-to-year, and the relative paucity of historical rainfall records. 

Some climate models showed that nearly the entirety of the precipitation increase could be attributed to climate change.

Driving the news: The Pakistan floods are visible via Earth observing satellites, with lakes appearing where dry land had been, after the Indus River overflowed its banks, and broke through or overtopped dams and other flood control structures.

The floods have affected more than 33 million people.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres last week visited Pakistan and called the flooding the result of climate change, stating on Sept. 9, "We have waged war on nature, and nature is striking back, and striking back in a devastating way." 

Pakistan's government has blamed the disaster on climate change, a claim the study's authors said has merit to it. 

Zoom in: The new analysis comes from 26 members of the World Weather Attribution group, which is a loose-knit international team of climate researchers. 

They looked at the rains that fell in Pakistan, and simulated the event both with and without current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 

The researchers focused specifically on two time periods, the 60-day stretch of heaviest rains across the Indus River basin between June and September, and a five-day stretch of torrential rains in the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.

Sindh and Balochistan both had their wettest Augusts on record, with seven to eight times their typical monthly totals, the study notes.

Natural variability associated with the monsoon prevented clear results from the 60-day rainfall totals, but the conclusions were drawn regarding the five-day totals.

Yes, but: This disaster wasn't caused by heavy rains alone. The highly vulnerable population also played a major role, with high poverty rates, an unstable government and lack of an effective early warning weather system serving to worsen the disaster.

Of note: Interestingly, an extreme heat event, itself tied to climate change, may have helped set up the rains, in an example of a compound climate disaster. 

The Asian Monsoon is triggered each summer by the differential heating between the land mass of South Asia, and the waters of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean to the south. 

This past spring, Pakistan and India experienced a record-breaking heat wave, which increased land surface temperatures.

The extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 120°F, intensified an area of low pressure, known as a "heat low," over Pakistan, according to Fahad Saeed, a researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad and coauthor of the new study.

This may have helped to draw more moisture northward, toward India and Pakistan, he said.

What they're saying: "I think climate change is an important driver insofar as we do see quite a large increase in the intensity of this event," said Friederike Otto, of Imperial College in London, the lead author of the study.

"Up to 50 or 75% increase in intensity of rainfall is huge and especially in a region that is very vulnerable," she said.

Climate change worsened Pakistan's flooding rains, study finds

The heavy rains fell on an especially vulnerable region, the study found.

Flooding survivors from monsoon rains in Pakistan leave their homes on Sept. 9, 2022. 

Flooding survivors from monsoon rains leave their flooded homes in Sehwan, Pakistan on September 09, 2022. (Adeel Ahmed/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Jackson, Mississippi on Thursday lifted its boil water advisory after Gov. Tate Reeves (R) announced that clean water had been restored to the city.

Why it matters: The city has had a boil water advisory in place since July, when tests showed water quality was "cloudy." Flooding in the Pearl River exacerbated the crisis and damaged the city's water system, upending life for the city of nearly 150,000 people.

Schools were forced to return to remote learning while businesses had to shutter or install expensive fixes like portable toilets, Axios' Fadel Allassan reports. People have had to wait in long lines for potable water.

What they're saying: "On Tuesday, the Mississippi State Department of Health officially began testing water quality. We can now announce we have restored clean water to the city of Jackson," Reeves said at a press conference. 

"The boil water advisory can be lifted for all those who rely on Jackson’s water system."

The O.B. Curtis Water Plant has "remained at steady pressure over the past 24 hours," Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said in a statement.

Though the city has received "isolated reports of discolored water and pressure issues," the number of these reports has decreased each day, he said.

"Overall water production did increase again yesterday," he added. "This is progress as we continue to work towards a consistent and reliable system."

The big picture: Reeves and Lumumba have each accused the other's office of failing to address longstanding issues in the city's water treatment prior to the crisis.

President Biden approved a federal emergency disaster declaration in August as Jackson residents remained without running water.

Reeves had also announced a state of emergency and activated the National Guard to assist the city.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from Jackson's mayor on the O.B. Curtis Water Plant. 

Jackson's boil water advisory lifted after clean water restored

The city has had a boil water advisory in place since July, when tests showed water quality was "cloudy."

Photo of people handing water bottles to each other

Members of Progressive Morningstar Baptist Church transport cases of water in Jackson, Mississippi on Sep. 4, 2022 as residents continue to endure water setbacks. Photo: Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images

Mississippi

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden will step down at year's end after nine years that included new climate initiatives and weathering the shock of the COVID pandemic.

Why it matters: Wael Sawan, currently head of Shell's integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions unit, will replace van Beurden as CEO of one of the world's most powerful energy companies.

Alongside other European-based giants, Shell is diversifying into more climate-friendly business lines like EV charging and offshore wind, but also facing criticism that it's moving too slowly.

Catch up fast: Van Beurden became CEO in early 2014 and has been with the company for almost 40 years.

"The first big move of his tenure as CEO...was the takeover of rival BG Group Plc, a deal valued at close to $50 billion that tested the company’s finances during an oil price slump, but is now paying off as natural gas prices soar," Bloomberg notes.

What we're watching: Follow This, a climate-focused shareholder advocacy group, offered a mix of praise and criticism of van Beurden as it signaled upcoming pressure campaigns on the new boss.

Oil majors are hauling in huge profits amid high commodity costs, while demand looks set to remain robust for the foreseeable future. 

But Follow This warns that Sawan "has to make bold decisions to explore new business models instead of new oil and gas. If he fails to deliver deep emissions cuts, he puts the company at great financial risk."

Yes, but: Per the Financial Times, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria does not expect a major change in the company's posture with van Beurden's departure.

“The shift is likely to be more of a continuation than revolution of the strategy put in place by van Beurden," Borkhataria said.

Sawan's elevation was "well anticipated," JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek said in a note reported by Bloomberg. “We expect him to maintain Shell’s pragmatic and holistic approach to the energy transition," Malek said.

Shell taps new CEO amid transition push

Sawan will replace Ben van Beurden as CEO of one of the world's most powerful energy companies.

Illustration of sea binoculars made from a Shell logo 

Big Oil

Oil companies

Data: NOAA; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

It was a relentlessly hot summer in much of the U.S., especially across the Plains, Southwest and West, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

The big picture: While each month had its own quirks, there were two constants: extreme heat in Texas and Oklahoma and damaging flash flooding in multiple locations across the country as rainfall records were shattered.

For meteorological summer, which runs from June 1 through Aug. 31, the U.S. average temperature was 2.5°F above average for the season. This made it the third-hottest summer in 128 years, NOAA found. 

Texas, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each had their second-warmest summers on record, while seventeen other states in the West, South and Northeast had one of their top 10 warmest summers. 

The drought that covered 49% of the Lower 48 states at the start of the summer was less expansive by the end of the season. This was thanks in large part to showers and thunderstorms associated with the Southwest Monsoon. 

The welcome rain fell across parts of Arizona, Nevada, Texas, California and New Mexico. 

Zoom in: If you look closely at the July precipitation map, you can see a green splotch across eastern Missouri and southern Illinois, and another in large parts of eastern Kentucky. These were the locations of damaging, and in Kentucky's case, deadly, 1,000-year rainfall events. 

More of these torrential rainstorms, which some refer to as "rain bombs," occurred during August as well, yielding 1,000-year totals that prompted flash floods in unlikely places, like Death Valley, California. 

On Aug. 5, Death Valley National Park set its all-time 24-hour rainfall record of 1.7 inches, which caused damage to roads and cars as flash floods wiped out infrastructure across the desert landscape. 

Another dark green area on the August precipitation map is seen across the Dallas, Texas, area, which also saw a 1,000-year rainfall event on Aug. 22.

Climate change is making extreme rainfall events more likely to occur and more intense, which can worsen flash flooding events. 

Of note: A 1,000-year rainfall event has a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year.

Between the lines: Heat waves are also becoming more severe, frequent and longer lasting with climate change. 

This summer featured sprawling heat domes encompassing tens of millions, and it ended with one of California's worst heat waves on record. That heat wave continued into September. 

The bottom line: Globally, the Northern Hemisphere saw its second-hottest meteorological summer on record, NOAA found, while the year-to-date for the world overall ranks as the sixth warmest. 

Go deeper: In photos: A summer of drought and fire

Mapped: America's extreme summer weather of 2022

This summer featured extreme heat paired with drought, plus damaging deluges.

A series of maps showing precipitation and temperature anomalies from the 1991-2020 mean.

Northern California's Mosquito Fire in the Sierra Nevada foothills swelled to 63,776 acres on Wednesday evening after "critically dry fuels" drove rapid growth, per Cal Fire.

Threat level: Evacuation orders and warnings remained in place for affected communities northeast of Sacramento as the blaze burned across El Dorado and Placer counties at 20% containment and became the largest recorded in California this year.

As poor air quality looms, schools in the area halted in-person classes, including in the Washoe County School District, The University of Nevada, Reno and Truckee Meadows Community College, AP reports.

State of play: Lighter southwesterly winds than Tuesday helped clear some of the air in fire-affected areas and firefighters were holding the Mosquito Fire inside control lines with the help of cooler temperatures and higher humidity, according to Cal Fire's incident report.

Yes, but: "The fire remains active on this eastern front, steadily burning and advancing in heavy unburned fuels," Cal Fire said. 

The priority was "strengthening and securing the southwest corner" of the fire  that ignited Sept. 6 "to protect and defend the communities of Foresthill and Todd Valley."

What they're saying: Cal Fire fire behavior analyst Jonathan Pangburn said during a briefing earlier this week that authorities had expected an increase in fire behavior in the area due to "historically dry fuels."

Pangburn compared the dry fuel conditions firefighters were facing in tackling the Mosquito Fire to the King Fire, east of Sacramento, which burned more than 97,000 acres in 2014 — when they deployed emergency fire shelters in some areas due to the rapidly moving blaze.

"Those events were similar to this, not wind-driven events, just fuel that was primed and ready and decided to get up with a hurry and put some people in some dangerous situations," Pangburn said, per the Los Angeles Times. 

"We're ready for an absolute blowup out here."

The big picture: California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week declared a state of emergency for counties threatened by the Mosquito and Fairview Fires.

The Fairview Fire, near Hemet, which killed two people earlier this month, has destroyed more than 28,300 acres in Riverside County and was 75% contained as of Wednesday, according to Cal Fire.

By the numbers: 91 large fires were burning on Wednesday across eight states in the Western U.S. — including 10 in California, according to the latest information from the National Interagency Fire Center.

The McKinney Fire, near the border with Oregon, which was previously the largest wildfire to burn in California this year, has razed 60,138 acres and was 99% contained on Wednesday, according to Inciweb.

Context: Most of the U.S. West is experiencing drought conditions — particularly the Southwest, where an ongoing megadrought is the most severe such event in at least 1,200 years, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Climate change is ratcheting up the severity of extreme weather events, Freedman notes.

Go deeeper: One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Swelling Mosquito Fire now California's largest wildfire this year

Evacuation orders and warnings remain in place as the blaze burns at 20% containment in El Dorado and Placer counties.

 CalFire Placer Crew firefighters monitor a backfire during the Mosquito fire in Foresthill, an unincorporated area of Placer County, California on September 13.

Friday's energy & environment stories