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Large swaths of Pakistan are underwater from unusually prolific monsoon rains, which have killed nearly 1,500 people. Now a new study shows the connections between the flooding and climate change.

The big picture: The study, released Thursday, shows human-caused global warming may have boosted 5-day rainfall amounts in the hardest-hit areas of Pakistan by up to 50%.

This means that without human-caused global warming, one-third of the rains that fell would not have occurred, researchers said in an online briefing. 

The study notes the large uncertainty regarding how climate change affects monsoon rainfall in Pakistan due to the region's high natural variability from year-to-year, and the relative paucity of historical rainfall records. 

Some climate models showed that nearly the entirety of the precipitation increase could be attributed to climate change.

Driving the news: The Pakistan floods are visible via Earth observing satellites, with lakes appearing where dry land had been, after the Indus River overflowed its banks, and broke through or overtopped dams and other flood control structures.

The floods have affected more than 33 million people.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres last week visited Pakistan and called the flooding the result of climate change, stating on Sept. 9, "We have waged war on nature, and nature is striking back, and striking back in a devastating way." 

Pakistan's government has blamed the disaster on climate change, a claim the study's authors said has merit to it. 

Zoom in: The new analysis comes from 26 members of the World Weather Attribution group, which is a loose-knit international team of climate researchers. 

They looked at the rains that fell in Pakistan, and simulated the event both with and without current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 

The researchers focused specifically on two time periods, the 60-day stretch of heaviest rains across the Indus River basin between June and September, and a five-day stretch of torrential rains in the southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.

Sindh and Balochistan both had their wettest Augusts on record, with seven to eight times their typical monthly totals, the study notes.

Natural variability associated with the monsoon prevented clear results from the 60-day rainfall totals, but the conclusions were drawn regarding the five-day totals.

Yes, but: This disaster wasn't caused by heavy rains alone. The highly vulnerable population also played a major role, with high poverty rates, an unstable government and lack of an effective early warning weather system serving to worsen the disaster.

Of note: Interestingly, an extreme heat event, itself tied to climate change, may have helped set up the rains, in an example of a compound climate disaster. 

The Asian Monsoon is triggered each summer by the differential heating between the land mass of South Asia, and the waters of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean to the south. 

This past spring, Pakistan and India experienced a record-breaking heat wave, which increased land surface temperatures.

The extreme heat, with temperatures exceeding 120°F, intensified an area of low pressure, known as a "heat low," over Pakistan, according to Fahad Saeed, a researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development in Islamabad and coauthor of the new study.

This may have helped to draw more moisture northward, toward India and Pakistan, he said.

What they're saying: "I think climate change is an important driver insofar as we do see quite a large increase in the intensity of this event," said Friederike Otto, of Imperial College in London, the lead author of the study.

"Up to 50 or 75% increase in intensity of rainfall is huge and especially in a region that is very vulnerable," she said.

Climate change worsened Pakistan's flooding rains, study finds

The heavy rains fell on an especially vulnerable region, the study found.

Flooding survivors from monsoon rains in Pakistan leave their homes on Sept. 9, 2022. 

Flooding survivors from monsoon rains leave their flooded homes in Sehwan, Pakistan on September 09, 2022. (Adeel Ahmed/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

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Jackson, Mississippi on Thursday lifted its boil water advisory after Gov. Tate Reeves (R) announced that clean water had been restored to the city.

Why it matters: The city has had a boil water advisory in place since July, when tests showed water quality was "cloudy." Flooding in the Pearl River exacerbated the crisis and damaged the city's water system, upending life for the city of nearly 150,000 people.

Schools were forced to return to remote learning while businesses had to shutter or install expensive fixes like portable toilets, Axios' Fadel Allassan reports. People have had to wait in long lines for potable water.

What they're saying: "On Tuesday, the Mississippi State Department of Health officially began testing water quality. We can now announce we have restored clean water to the city of Jackson," Reeves said at a press conference. 

"The boil water advisory can be lifted for all those who rely on Jackson’s water system."

The O.B. Curtis Water Plant has "remained at steady pressure over the past 24 hours," Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said in a statement.

Though the city has received "isolated reports of discolored water and pressure issues," the number of these reports has decreased each day, he said.

"Overall water production did increase again yesterday," he added. "This is progress as we continue to work towards a consistent and reliable system."

The big picture: Reeves and Lumumba have each accused the other's office of failing to address longstanding issues in the city's water treatment prior to the crisis.

President Biden approved a federal emergency disaster declaration in August as Jackson residents remained without running water.

Reeves had also announced a state of emergency and activated the National Guard to assist the city.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from Jackson's mayor on the O.B. Curtis Water Plant. 

Jackson's boil water advisory lifted after clean water restored

The city has had a boil water advisory in place since July, when tests showed water quality was "cloudy."

Photo of people handing water bottles to each other

Members of Progressive Morningstar Baptist Church transport cases of water in Jackson, Mississippi on Sep. 4, 2022 as residents continue to endure water setbacks. Photo: Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images

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President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

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Shell CEO Ben van Beurden will step down at year's end after nine years that included new climate initiatives and weathering the shock of the COVID pandemic.

Why it matters: Wael Sawan, currently head of Shell's integrated gas, renewables and energy solutions unit, will replace van Beurden as CEO of one of the world's most powerful energy companies.

Alongside other European-based giants, Shell is diversifying into more climate-friendly business lines like EV charging and offshore wind, but also facing criticism that it's moving too slowly.

Catch up fast: Van Beurden became CEO in early 2014 and has been with the company for almost 40 years.

"The first big move of his tenure as CEO...was the takeover of rival BG Group Plc, a deal valued at close to $50 billion that tested the company’s finances during an oil price slump, but is now paying off as natural gas prices soar," Bloomberg notes.

What we're watching: Follow This, a climate-focused shareholder advocacy group, offered a mix of praise and criticism of van Beurden as it signaled upcoming pressure campaigns on the new boss.

Oil majors are hauling in huge profits amid high commodity costs, while demand looks set to remain robust for the foreseeable future. 

But Follow This warns that Sawan "has to make bold decisions to explore new business models instead of new oil and gas. If he fails to deliver deep emissions cuts, he puts the company at great financial risk."

Yes, but: Per the Financial Times, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria does not expect a major change in the company's posture with van Beurden's departure.

“The shift is likely to be more of a continuation than revolution of the strategy put in place by van Beurden," Borkhataria said.

Sawan's elevation was "well anticipated," JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek said in a note reported by Bloomberg. “We expect him to maintain Shell’s pragmatic and holistic approach to the energy transition," Malek said.

Shell taps new CEO amid transition push

Sawan will replace Ben van Beurden as CEO of one of the world's most powerful energy companies.

Illustration of sea binoculars made from a Shell logo 

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Data: NOAA; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

It was a relentlessly hot summer in much of the U.S., especially across the Plains, Southwest and West, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

The big picture: While each month had its own quirks, there were two constants: extreme heat in Texas and Oklahoma and damaging flash flooding in multiple locations across the country as rainfall records were shattered.

For meteorological summer, which runs from June 1 through Aug. 31, the U.S. average temperature was 2.5°F above average for the season. This made it the third-hottest summer in 128 years, NOAA found. 

Texas, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each had their second-warmest summers on record, while seventeen other states in the West, South and Northeast had one of their top 10 warmest summers. 

The drought that covered 49% of the Lower 48 states at the start of the summer was less expansive by the end of the season. This was thanks in large part to showers and thunderstorms associated with the Southwest Monsoon. 

The welcome rain fell across parts of Arizona, Nevada, Texas, California and New Mexico. 

Zoom in: If you look closely at the July precipitation map, you can see a green splotch across eastern Missouri and southern Illinois, and another in large parts of eastern Kentucky. These were the locations of damaging, and in Kentucky's case, deadly, 1,000-year rainfall events. 

More of these torrential rainstorms, which some refer to as "rain bombs," occurred during August as well, yielding 1,000-year totals that prompted flash floods in unlikely places, like Death Valley, California. 

On Aug. 5, Death Valley National Park set its all-time 24-hour rainfall record of 1.7 inches, which caused damage to roads and cars as flash floods wiped out infrastructure across the desert landscape. 

Another dark green area on the August precipitation map is seen across the Dallas, Texas, area, which also saw a 1,000-year rainfall event on Aug. 22.

Climate change is making extreme rainfall events more likely to occur and more intense, which can worsen flash flooding events. 

Of note: A 1,000-year rainfall event has a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year.

Between the lines: Heat waves are also becoming more severe, frequent and longer lasting with climate change. 

This summer featured sprawling heat domes encompassing tens of millions, and it ended with one of California's worst heat waves on record. That heat wave continued into September. 

The bottom line: Globally, the Northern Hemisphere saw its second-hottest meteorological summer on record, NOAA found, while the year-to-date for the world overall ranks as the sixth warmest. 

Go deeper: In photos: A summer of drought and fire

Mapped: America's extreme summer weather of 2022

This summer featured extreme heat paired with drought, plus damaging deluges.

A series of maps showing precipitation and temperature anomalies from the 1991-2020 mean.

Northern California's Mosquito Fire in the Sierra Nevada foothills swelled to 63,776 acres on Wednesday evening after "critically dry fuels" drove rapid growth, per Cal Fire.

Threat level: Evacuation orders and warnings remained in place for affected communities northeast of Sacramento as the blaze burned across El Dorado and Placer counties at 20% containment and became the largest recorded in California this year.

As poor air quality looms, schools in the area halted in-person classes, including in the Washoe County School District, The University of Nevada, Reno and Truckee Meadows Community College, AP reports.

State of play: Lighter southwesterly winds than Tuesday helped clear some of the air in fire-affected areas and firefighters were holding the Mosquito Fire inside control lines with the help of cooler temperatures and higher humidity, according to Cal Fire's incident report.

Yes, but: "The fire remains active on this eastern front, steadily burning and advancing in heavy unburned fuels," Cal Fire said. 

The priority was "strengthening and securing the southwest corner" of the fire  that ignited Sept. 6 "to protect and defend the communities of Foresthill and Todd Valley."

What they're saying: Cal Fire fire behavior analyst Jonathan Pangburn said during a briefing earlier this week that authorities had expected an increase in fire behavior in the area due to "historically dry fuels."

Pangburn compared the dry fuel conditions firefighters were facing in tackling the Mosquito Fire to the King Fire, east of Sacramento, which burned more than 97,000 acres in 2014 — when they deployed emergency fire shelters in some areas due to the rapidly moving blaze.

"Those events were similar to this, not wind-driven events, just fuel that was primed and ready and decided to get up with a hurry and put some people in some dangerous situations," Pangburn said, per the Los Angeles Times. 

"We're ready for an absolute blowup out here."

The big picture: California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week declared a state of emergency for counties threatened by the Mosquito and Fairview Fires.

The Fairview Fire, near Hemet, which killed two people earlier this month, has destroyed more than 28,300 acres in Riverside County and was 75% contained as of Wednesday, according to Cal Fire.

By the numbers: 91 large fires were burning on Wednesday across eight states in the Western U.S. — including 10 in California, according to the latest information from the National Interagency Fire Center.

The McKinney Fire, near the border with Oregon, which was previously the largest wildfire to burn in California this year, has razed 60,138 acres and was 99% contained on Wednesday, according to Inciweb.

Context: Most of the U.S. West is experiencing drought conditions — particularly the Southwest, where an ongoing megadrought is the most severe such event in at least 1,200 years, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Climate change is ratcheting up the severity of extreme weather events, Freedman notes.

Go deeeper: One extreme climate event can worsen others, studies show

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Swelling Mosquito Fire now California's largest wildfire this year

Evacuation orders and warnings remain in place as the blaze burns at 20% containment in El Dorado and Placer counties.

 CalFire Placer Crew firefighters monitor a backfire during the Mosquito fire in Foresthill, an unincorporated area of Placer County, California on September 13.

Cal Fire Placer Crew firefighters monitor a backfire during the Mosquito fire in Foresthill, an unincorporated area of Placer County, California, on Tuesday. Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images

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Biden announces plans to increase electric vehicle infrastructure

He predicted that "the great American road trip is going to be fully electrified" in the near future.

President Joe Biden sits in a Chevrolet Corvette Z06 as he tours the Detroit Auto Show.

President Joe Biden at the Detroit Auto Show. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

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Twitter whistleblower Peiter "Mudge" Zatko yesterday told a Senate committee that the social media company had put financial considerations ahead of user security.

The assembled senators were shocked. And dismayed. And appalled.

This included members of a Republican Party that's wielding opposition to corporate ESG (aka "woke capitalism") as an electoral messaging strategy, filtering down to state investment bans that could soon impact private equity.

Why it matters: Two-thirds of the ESG acronym refer to the very things that Zatko alleged.

Social responsibility: Twitter put profits over people.

Governance: Twitter's board was not properly informed about what was happening, and there were other communications breakdowns.

The big picture: The anti-ESG movement is primarily about protecting legacy fossil fuel interests, under the guise of protecting investors.

It intentionally flies in the face of Corporate America's relatively new mantra about how driving shareholder value is no longer its sole business goal; that there are other legitimate stakeholders, including customers, employees and communities.

As yesterday's hearing showed, elected Republicans don't really object to most core ESG tenants. In fact, they find the "S" and the "G" to be super duper important, in spite of their own political rhetoric.

The bottom line: There's a compelling argument that the "E" (environment) comes first for a reason, given that unfettered carbon emissions could prove globally catastrophic (thus rendering irrelevant most corporate social or governance advances).

At the same time, however, there's value in not always emphasizing one letter at the expense of the other two, whether you're running a company like Twitter or running for Congress.

Twitter whistleblower testimony reclaims ESG

Republicans don't really object to most core ESG tenants.

Illustration of a thin, rectangle shaped Rubik's cube stylized as a briefcase.  

Twitter

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed a series of proposals to combat Europe's energy crisis during her annual state of the union speech on Wednesday, promising the EU's enduring solidarity with Ukraine.

Why it matters: Previously heavily reliant on natural gas from Russia, the west's sanctions on Russia have drastically upended Europe's energy supply.

The big picture: Von der Leyen unveiled a series of proposals to aid consumers and businesses grappling with high gas and power costs.

Among the proposals is a cap on revenues of power companies making huge profits during the bloc's energy crisis that could yield $140 billion to "cushion the blow," she said in her speech.

She also said major oil, gas and coal companies "have to pay a fair share" via a "crisis contribution."

"In these times it is wrong to receive extraordinary record revenues and profits benefiting from war and on the back of our consumers. In these times, profits must be shared and channeled to those who need it most," she added.

High energy prices and inflation have prompted some politicians in the bloc, particularly those from the far-right, to argue the measures against Russia should be eased, Reuters reported.

Von der Leyen vehemently shut down any such suggestion in her remarks.

"This is the price for Putin's trail of death and destruction. And I want to make it very clear, the sanctions are here to stay. This is the time for us to show resolve, not appeasement. The same is true for our financial support to Ukraine."

Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska was present as a guest of honor at the speech, per Reuters.

EU unveils plans to combat energy crisis and vows solidarity with Ukraine

Among the proposals is a cap on revenues of power companies making huge profits during the bloc's energy crisis.

Ursula von der Leyen delivers a State of the Union address at the European Parliament on Sept. 14. Photo: Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images

European Union (EU)

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Thursday's energy & environment stories