National

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

The Interior Department will review, remove and replace derogatory names, including "squaw," from U.S. geographic landmarks, Secretary Deb Haaland announced Friday.

The big picture: Haaland's order formally declares the term as derogatory and creates a task force to rename the federal lands that bear it. A separate committee will review proposed name changes related to other derogatory terms.

Details: The Derogatory Geographic Names Task Force will be required to engage in tribal consultation and consider public feedback on proposed name changes.

The term is a slur historically used to denigrate Native Americans, especially Indigenous women. Over 650 federal land units currently contain the word, according to a database maintained by the Board on Geographic Names.

What she's saying: "Racist terms have no place in our vernacular or on our federal lands. Our nation’s lands and waters should be places to celebrate the outdoors and our shared cultural heritage — not to perpetuate the legacies of oppression," Haaland said in a statement.

"Today’s actions will accelerate an important process to reconcile derogatory place names and mark a significant step in honoring the ancestors who have stewarded our lands since time immemorial."

Of note: The order also creates the Advisory Committee on Reconciliation in Place Names, which will work separately to review proposed name changes related to other derogatory terms. 

It will include representatives from Indigenous tribes as well as tribal and Native Hawaiian organizations. 

Don't forget: The federal government previously eliminated use of derogatory terms in the past, such as the n-word and anti-Japanese slurs.

Several states have already passed legislation to prohibit the use of "squaw" in place names.

Interior to remove anti-Indigenous slurs from names of federal lands

Federal lands should be "places to celebrate the outdoors ... not to perpetuate the legacies of oppression."

Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland speaks during a welcome ceremony for a totem pole carved by the House of Tears Carvers of the Lummi Nation on July 29, 2021 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Drew Angerer via Getty Images

Department of The Interior (DOI)

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

California wildfires killed between 3% and 5% of all giant sequoias this year, the National Park Service announced in new estimates on Friday.

Why it matters: The service said this level of devastation increases the risk of regeneration failure occurring in parts of Sequoia National Park, meaning the sequoias will be unable to naturally regrow.

By the numbers: NPS estimates that the KNP Complex and the Windy Fire destroyed between 2,261 and 3,637 sequoias over four feet in diameter in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks this year, representing 3% to 5% of the estimated total population of the trees in 2021 (~75,580)

These losses come on top of the mortalities from the Castle Fire in 2020, which destroyed 10% to 14% — between 7,500 to 10,600 — of all large sequoias. 

The KNP Complex alone burned through 16 sequoia groves, while the Windy Fire tore through 11. In total, 6,109 acres of grove were burned this year.

These trees are ancient, as sequoias — many of which are among the largest trees by volume on Earth — can take decades to grow to over four feet in diameter.

Because of this year's losses, combined with damage from fire events last year and between 2015 and 2017, park officials are concerned the trees will struggle to naturally regenerate in certain parts of Sequoia National Park.

Average fires typically help giant sequoias and other trees reproduce, as they allow the trees to release their seeds and prep the soil by burning off undergrowth. 

But extremely hot fires can burn up the seeds, damaging the species' ability to regrow. Erosion after devastating fires can also carry the seeds into areas in which they are unable to grow.

NPS identified 436 acres in and around Sequoia National Park as being vulnerable to total sequoia loss if regeneration from seeds that survived the KNP Complex is inadequate.

If it is, the park service may have to reforest around 350 of the acres.

Thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: The damage to the massive and wondrous sequoia groves, which have withstood less intense fires for generations, underscores the ways that global warming is rapidly changing California ecosystems. 

While the surviving sequoias will keep tourists coming and maintain the national parks, what has happened in the past two years is a trend that could continue, given climate change and long-term drought.

The big picture: Recent research has found that human-caused climate change is the main driver behind ongoing drought conditions and increased wildfire risk in the U.S. West.

Fourteen out of 20 of California's largest wildfires have occurred since 2010, with six out of seven happening since 2020.

Go deeper ... Poll: 52% of Americans say they've experienced effects of global warming

California wildfires killed at least 3% of all giant sequoias this year

Because of intense fires, the trees may be unable to naturally regrow in parts of Sequoia National Park.

A fire burning through the Long Meadow Grove of giant sequoia trees in Sequoia National Forest on Sept. 21.

A fire burning through the Long Meadow Grove of giant sequoia trees in Sequoia National Forest on Sept. 21. Photo: David McNew/Getty Images

California wildfires

Axios Generate

Crude oil prices are heading sharply downward this morning as traders react to fresh signs of the pandemic's persistence.

Driving the news: Prices fell by over $2.50 per barrel, before regaining a little ground, in the latest declines that have pushed crude to its lowest level in roughly six weeks.

Friday morning's drop comes after new lockdowns in Austria and restrictions elsewhere in Europe as cases rise.

What they're saying: "The market still remains fundamentally in a good position but lockdowns are now an obvious risk to this if other countries follow Austria's lead," Oanda analyst Craig Erlam said in a note.

The intrigue: Even before today's decline, oil had fallen from multiyear highs in October.

Bloomberg has an interesting piece about the effects of Biden administration threats of actions like releasing crude from strategic stockpiles.

"President Joe Biden, battling the political consequences of the strongest inflationary surge in decades, has spent a good month trying to talk down the price of oil. And for now, it’s working," it reports.

Oil falls steeply as COVID bites again

Illustration of three oil barrels with red background

Price of oil

Oil companies

Bloomberg has fresh reporting on Apple's secretive plans to develop an autonomous electric car.

Driving the news: Apple plans to "accelerate development" and is "refocusing the project around full self-driving capabilities."

The target launch date is 2025, but could easily slip, they report in the story attributed to anonymous sources familiar with the effort.

Why it matters: If the plan ever comes to fruition, it would mark a major new entrant in the auto space, given Apple's brand recognition, balance sheet and track record.

Yes, but: Apple keeps its cards close to the vest, and the effort has long been a moving target.

What they're saying: Wedbush Securities analysts said Bloomberg's reporting matches their view that an Apple car — probably in partnership with another company — will likely arrive mid-decade.

"We would assign the chances of Apple unveiling its own standalone car by 2025 as 60%-65%," they said in a note.

Apple car buzz gets loud again

Apple plans to "accelerate development" and is "refocusing the project around full self-driving capabilities."

Autonomous vehicles

Automation and AI

Electric vehicles

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

The Bipartisan infrastructure bill (BIF) includes large sums for improving the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Why it matters: Making wildfire detections and forecasting more accurate, as well as honing weather and climate projections, are increasingly vital tasks as the weather grows more extreme due to human-induced climate change.

Driving the news: According to a Nov. 15 memo from NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad, the BIF provides nearly $500 million for NOAA’s coastal and inland flood mapping, forecasting and water modeling. It also includes:

$50 million for improving wildfire forecasting.

$50 million for new instruments and equipment to aid in the detection, observation and modeling of wildfires.

$80 million for buying research supercomputing resources for advancing forecast accuracy.

Context: In addition to annual appropriations, the infrastructure law is the latest move by lawmakers to provide funding boosts for the nation’s top weather and climate agency, whose computing power and weather model accuracy had fallen behind other nations in recent years.

NOAA’s public affairs office told Axios the agency received more than $60 million in bills enacted in 2018 and 2019 to “accelerate improvements in weather forecasting,” among other purposes.

Recently, NOAA also saw increased funding, on the order of $105 million for the fiscal year 2022, to improve its forecasting capabilities.

At the same time, NOAA has also been upgrading the GFS model and its ensemble system, which helps forecasters quantify the uncertainty associated with a given projection.

What's next: With all this added money, there's an expectation on and off Capitol Hill that NOAA's forecasts will be more on par with its peers around the world.

U.S. weather forecasting is about to get better

The bipartisan infrastructure bill includes funding for improving the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts from the NOAA.

A woman pointing toward a trend line on a dollar bill background

Weather

52% of Americans agree they have personally experienced the effects of global warming

Data: "Climate Change in the American Mind;" Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

According to new results from a national poll from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, a record high of seven-in-10 Americans said they are at least "somewhat worried" about global warming. This beats out the findings from the same question dating back to 2008.

Why it matters: Americans are increasingly perceiving climate change as a current danger affecting them personally, a development that could shift attitudes toward federal policy. 

Context: The extreme weather events that occurred during the past year show up in the results. Virtually every part of the U.S. saw extremes tied largely to climate change, such as the unprecedented heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, wildfires in the West and more. 

Details: 55% think people in the U.S. are being harmed by global warming "right now," which is a record high for this polling that dates back to 2008. 

Similarly, a record high of 52% of respondents said they have personally experienced the effects of global warming, the first time there has been a majority. 

A broad majority think global warming is happening, outnumbering climate doubters by a ratio of 6:1, the survey found. 

The poll also found that six-in-10 Americans understand that global warming is mostly human-caused, while about 27% think it’s mostly natural in origins. 

Half think they will be harmed by global warming (a record high), with larger majorities saying climate change will harm people in the U.S. (68%), the world's poor (70%), and future generations (74%). 

Yes, but: Despite the record highs in recognition of the threat climate change poses to them, 61% of Americans said they "rarely" or "never" talk about global warming with family and friends. And the Yale results contrast with findings from a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week, which showed a widening partisan divide on climate change. 

It found the proportion of Democrats who see climate change as a serious threat has gone up during the past seven years, to 95%. 

But during the same period, the share of Republicans who say climate change is a serious problem fell by 10 points, to 39%. 

The Yale poll was conducted between Sept. 10-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Post-ABC poll was conducted Nov. 7 to 10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Poll: 52% of Americans say they've experienced effects of global warming

A record high of 7-in-10 Americans said they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming.

Climate change

A man and woman ferry a dog down a flooded Sterling Road in Sedro-Woolley, Washington.

A new paper finds that words used in news stories to label climate change are less consequential than whether stories emphasize harm or solutions.

Driving the news: Researchers tested engagement with "climate crisis" and "climate emergency" — phrasing that has gained media traction — and "climate change."

They also showed survey participants stories focused on impacts (such as wildfires), solutions (such as U.S. states' climate plans), and a mixed set.

How it works: The survey involved tweets of stories under the Associated Press handle but actually from multiple outlets, and showed a headline, image and story lead.

What they found: Climate phrasing doesn't really move the needle, Rutgers and University of Michigan researchers found in the peer-reviewed study in Climatic Change.

"[T]erminology did not have any effect on public engagement with climate change, measured in terms of fear, hope, collective efficacy beliefs, policy support, and intended political action."

And to a small degree, the "emergency" frame "reduced perceived news credibility and perceived newsworthiness."

Yes, but: Long-term exposure to "emergency" and "crisis" framing may build support for action — or could bring "disengagement" among some audiences. The survey did not measure long-term impacts, and future research is needed, they write.

Turning to story content, "news about climate impacts decreased hope and efficacy beliefs, and increased fear, compared to news about climate actions."

The bottom line: The results "emphasize the importance of focusing on actions and efficacy information in news coverage of climate change, either alone or in combination with impacts, regardless of the terminology used."

What moves the climate communications needle

To a small degree, the "emergency" frame "reduced perceived news credibility and perceived newsworthiness."

An illustration of a microphone with warning tape. 

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest reached a 15-year high after it soared 22% in one year, according to data published Thursday. 

Why it matters: The Amazon is the world's largest tropical rainforest and stores vast quantities of CO2, the primary greenhouse gas. 

Brazil was also one of the nations that promised to end and reverse deforestation by 2030 during the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, earlier this month. 

By the numbers: Nearly 13,235 square kilometers (5,110 sq. miles) was lost during the 2020-2021 period — the most since 2006, according to the data. 

The big picture: The Brazilian Amazon hadn't recorded a single year with more than 10,000 kilometers of deforestation in over a decade, AP notes. 

Deforestation of the Amazon increased under President Jair Bolsonaro. 

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest accelerated and reached a 12-year high in 2020 according to data from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research published last December.

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Andrew Freedman: The agreement to combat deforestation was one of the key outcomes that occurred on the sidelines of COP26, in addition to the formal Glasgow Climate Pact. 

The new data underscores how big a challenge the global community faces in order to rein in deforestation in a country where the government has enacted policies that do the opposite, and instead ease the development of rainforest lands.

What they're saying: "It is a shame. It is a crime," said Márcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, a network of environmental nonprofit groups, to AP. 

"We are seeing the Amazon rainforest being destroyed by a government which made environmental destruction its public policy."

Go deeper... Research: Protected land status determines a forest's fate

Amazon deforestation in Brazil surges to worst in 15 years

The Amazon is the world's largest tropical rainforest and stores vast quantities of CO2, the primary greenhouse gas.

General view of a burnt area of the Amazonia rainforest in the surroundings of the city of Porto Velho, Rondonia state, Brazil, on September 15, 2021. 

General view of a burnt area of the Amazonia rainforest in the surroundings of the city of Porto Velho, Rondonia state, Brazil, on September 15, 2021. Photo: Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

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Saturday's energy & environment stories