If Democrats win the Senate and White House, ending the filibuster would lower the huge hurdles before climate legislation. But there could be other knock-on effects.
The intrigue: Big climate legislation would hardly be a guarantee, given resistance among Democrats from fossil fuel-producing states, according to a wide-ranging election look-ahead note from ClearView Energy Partners.
- And an outside-the-box analysis: "[T]he volatility of a filibuster-free Senate could encourage lawmakers to pass laws that spend money quickly lest a future Congress reverse them."
Why it matters: "[P]ost-filibuster policy volatility could encourage lawmakers to pursue potentially market distorting, up-front spending on energy programs."
- This "race to deploy" could increase renewable project costs.
- "Meanwhile, deadline-driven (rather than market-driven) capacity deployments amid stagnant demand could depress prices for all fuels and technologies."
The big picture: The analysis comes as Joe Biden is calling for a $2 trillion investment in clean energy and climate-friendly infrastructure during his first term.