Jun 18, 2019

New York's ugly June manufacturing survey

The June reading of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a regional survey of manufacturing industry business owners by the New York Fed, was quite bad.

Details: The headline reading was -8.6, down from 17.8 the month before, the largest monthly decline ever recorded.

  • The survey was also the lowest reading since October 2016.
  • It was expected to be 11.0, and the nearly 19-point miss is the biggest since November 2010.
  • The details were also bad, with new orders falling 20 points, prices received down 6 points, shipments down 7 points and number of employees falling 8 points.

Yes, but: "This looks terrible, but it won't last," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients. "The survey is conducted during the first 10 days of the month so it likely reflects the peak of Mexico tariff fear. ... During that period, businesses appear to have panicked."

Go deeper: Manufacturing is falling fast and hard

Go deeper

Exclusive: Trump's "Deep State" hit list

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: WPA Pool/Getty Pool, Drew Angerer/Getty Staff

The Trump White House and its allies, over the past 18 months, assembled detailed lists of disloyal government officials to oust — and trusted pro-Trump people to replace them — according to more than a dozen sources familiar with the effort who spoke to Axios.

Driving the news: By the time President Trump instructed his 29-year-old former body man and new head of presidential personnel to rid his government of anti-Trump officials, he'd gathered reams of material to support his suspicions.

Exclusive: Anti-Sanders campaign targets black South Carolina voters

Courtesy of The Big Tent Project

The Big Tent Project, a Democratic political group focused on promoting moderate presidential candidates, has sent hundreds of thousands of mailers bashing Bernie Sanders to black voters in South Carolina who voted in the state's 2016 primary.

Why it matters: Sanders' rise to the top of the pack, as dueling moderate candidates split their side of the vote, is worrying many in the Democratic political establishment who fear a socialist can't beat President Trump.

Inside the fight over FBI surveillance powers

Carter Page. Photo: Artyom Korotayev\TASS via Getty Images

Over the past year, President Trump has told senior administration officials, including Attorney General Bill Barr, that he wants a major overhaul of national security surveillance powers and the secret court that approves them.

Behind the scenes: In one such discussion last year about the need to reauthorize government authorities to surveil U.S. citizens, Trump went so far as to say he'd rather get rid of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) altogether.