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Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Elizabeth Warren's rise in the 2020 Democratic primary fight is forcing oil companies and analysts to grapple with the potential effects of the liberal Massachusetts senator winning the White House.

Why it matters: Warren, now challenging Joe Biden for frontrunner status, has pledged to halt hydraulic fracturing — the extraction technique that has enabled the U.S. oil and natural gas boom. She's also pledged to end new leasing on federal lands.

What they're saying: "Elizabeth Warren’s comments to 'ban fracking everywhere' drew a lot of attention and raised concerns for those invested and active in the industry," notes a recent RBC Capital Markets report.

  • Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. analyst Jake Roberts tells the Wall Street Journal that clients are abuzz about Warren's plans. “‘If Sen. Warren were to win’ was getting a lot of airtime in our meetings,” he said.
  • The same WSJ piece reports, "Analysts with Piper Jaffray’s Simmons Energy heard so much about Ms. Warren from money managers recently that they parsed her energy and infrastructure policy proposals in a note sent to clients last week."

Where it stands: Warren would need Capitol Hill's help for an outright fracking ban, and that's very unlikely to materialize.

  • But even the prospect of curtailing fracking and new leasing on federal lands is sending ripples through the sector.
  • RBC's U.S. production forecast would be 1.2 million barrels per day lower in 2025 if there was a fracking ban imposed on federal lands starting in 2021.

The intrigue: Targeting federal lands in particular would create bigger risks for some companies than others, based on how much of their acreage centered in those areas versus state and private holdings.

  • RBC and other analysts are already tracking which companies would have significant exposure, like big independent producers Devon Energy and Concho Resources.

But, but, but: Efforts to stymie drilling on federal lands would face vigorous legal and political opposition and bureaucratic hurdles.

  • The RBC report notes that the industry would "pursue legal recourse including an injunction until courts make a final decision on that action."
  • And a Bloomberg story on Warren's plans earlier this month, summarizing analysis from Sanford C. Bernstein's Bob Brackett, states that "any impact from a Warren win may be short-lived."

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Updated 3 hours ago - World

North Korea claims latest missile test new weapon launched from submarine

North Korean state media claims the country's military fired this missile on Tuesday. Photo: Korean Central News Agency

North Korean state media announced that a detected ballistic missile launch off its east coast on Tuesday was a newly developed weapon test-fired from a submarine.

Why it matters: Pyongyang's latest in a series of recent missile launches into the sea happened hours after U.S. officials emphasized their commitment to restart negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, which have stalled since talks broke down during the Trump administration, AP notes.

5 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Manchin's massive means test

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is offering progressives a trade: He'll vote for their cherished social programs if they accept strict income caps for the recipients, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Manchin’s plan to use so-called means-testing for everything from paid family medical leave to elder and disabled care would drastically shrink the size and scope of the programs. It also would bring a key moderate vote to the progressive cause.

The China whisperer

Nick Burns. Photo: Chen Mengtong/China News Service via Getty Images

President Biden's nominee for ambassador to China will face aggressive questioning Wednesday about the most important, and potentially perilous, bilateral relationship in the world.

Why it matters: While Nick Burns is an experienced diplomat with support on both sides of the aisle, lawmakers want to use his confirmation hearing to force the administration into some tough positions on China.

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