National

Health insurance provided by employers this year cost an average of $22,200 for families and $7,700 for individuals, a 4% increase from a year ago, according to new survey data from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Why it matters: While many people lost their jobs and health insurance during the pandemic, most companies didn't rock the boat heading into 2021. But even a relatively modest increase in the already high costs of job-based insurance means workers and families continue to pay a lot more for their health care.

The big picture: The 4% increase in health insurance premiums was the same as last year, but it still outpaced inflation, according to KFF.

Premiums almost always rise faster than the growth in workers' wages, but that gap went away for this year. 

However, any gains in people's paychecks were still completely offset by higher insurance costs.

By the numbers: 155 million people get their health coverage from an employer plan.

Employers are still paying for almost 75% of the premiums, a cost that is mostly invisible to workers except if they notice it on tax forms.

People who work at smaller companies continue to shoulder higher percentages of their premiums and have higher deductibles and out-of-pocket costs, according to the survey data.

The bottom line: "Despite pandemic uncertainties in the labor market and health care use, employer health benefit programs have not experienced big changes," KFF analysts wrote in an accompanying article in Health Affairs.

But employer coverage remains expensive because of the high prices coming from hospitals, doctors, drug companies, and other health care entities.

Health insurance costs for workers rose 4% during pandemic

Employer health benefits didn't change much amid the pandemic.

A computer keyboard and mouse attached to a medical case.

Employer coverage

Health care costs

Coronavirus

Jobs

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

<span style="color: #ff942f;">Initial</span> vs. <span style="color: #835bff;">final</span> reported number of jobs created each month

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Sometimes the initial picture is only half the story. The October jobs report, out Friday, included considerable revisions to the tally of new jobs created in August and September — enough to change how we view the economy’s progress through the peak of the Delta variant.

Why it matters: It’s a reminder to step back and let the whole picture take shape. Throughout the pandemic recovery — a time with absolutely no modern economic precedent — the imperfections of gathering complex data have become all the more stark. 

How it works: Each month’s tally of new jobs created gets revised in the following month’s report, and again the month after that, for a total of two revisions.

The numbers are derived from surveys, the fallibility of which Axios' Felix Salmon spells out here. 

By the numbers: So far this year, the initial jobs number undershot the final estimate in all but one month, with an average of 99,000 in additional jobs per month subsequently added.

In total, more than a million jobs have been added to the tally by way of revisions. 

Context: In the more predictable 2019, the average total revisions per month amounted to just 10,000, noted the White House Council for Economic Advisers in a tweet on Friday. 

The bottom line: The data so far this year imply it would be reasonable to expect October’s red hot job gains to get revised even higher — and for September’s number to receive another lift as well.  

Pandemic jobs reports expose data collection flaws

Throughout the pandemic recovery, the imperfections of gathering complex data have become all the more stark.

A ''Now Hiring" sign hangs above a McDonald's restaurant on Nov. 5, 2021, in Miami Beach.

Even with Friday’s stellar jobs report, it may feel like it's too soon to talk about full employment: America is still 4 million jobs short of where it was pre-pandemic.

But how close we are has big implications for when the Fed — fresh off a taper announcement — might consider raising interest rates from near zero.

Where it stands: The Fed said last week that full employment is a ways out. Still, a growing chorus of economists says stickier-than-expected inflation may push the central bank to readjust its recovery expectations — and eventually force its hand.

Why it matters: The gloomy outlook for the labor market is suddenly much sunnier, thanks to last month’s hiring surge and hefty upward revisions to job gains in August and September. 

But one thing stayed the same: The labor force participation rate didn’t budge. That measure includes people who don't have jobs but are actively looking.

For reasons that run the gamut — early retirement, lack of child care, fear of contracting the virus, and more — millions have left the workforce. Neither the economic reopening nor rising wages are goosing workers back in significant numbers.  

The intrigue: “The lack of improvement in [labor force] participation coupled with strong wages may eventually force the Fed to rethink its views on how far away they are from the maximum employment objective,” Bank of America economists wrote in a note on Friday.  

Between the lines: What full employment will look like — or when the country will get there — is a blind spot for markets. 

Fed chair Jerome Powell says labor force participation is one of many data points the Fed looks at to suss out maximum employment.

"Ideally ... we would see further development of the labor market in a context where there isn't another COVID spike. We would see: how does participation react in that sort of post-COVID world," Powell told reporters last week.

What we're watching: In recent months, Powell hinted progress for certain ethnic and racial groups, like Black Americans — typically the first to feel the effect of a labor market implosion and the last to reap the benefits of recovery — would also be a factor.

What they’re saying: The Fed has said they are "focused on fostering a very strong labor market for different demographic groups so that everybody benefits, but strong inflation may limit their ability to be patient on that front," says Steve Friedman, an economist at MacKay Shields who was a former New York Fed official.

The Fed's full employment puzzle

The gloomy outlook for the labor market is suddenly much sunnier, thanks to last month’s hiring surge.

Fed chair Jerome Powell listens during a House hearing on Sept. 30, 2021.

Fed chair Jerome Powell listens during a House hearing on Sept. 30, 2021. Photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Federal Reserve

Closer

Axios Closer

Workers are heading back to the office after over a year of the COVID-19 pandemic-induced rise of work from home, BLS data shows.

Why it matters: Remote work started as a temporary plan when the pandemic hit in March 2020, though new data shows that workers are heading back to the office 

The share of people who worked at home or teleworked fell to 11.6% last month, the lowest point since the start of the pandemic. 

Context: 35% of the employed workforce went remote due to the pandemic in May 2020.

The working group with the largest share of workers still at home: those over the age of 25 with an advanced degree at 25.6%.

Charted: Work from home tapering

The share of people who worked at home or teleworked fell to 11.6% last month.

Remote work

Markets

Axios Markets

The job market added a stunning 531,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.6% — a new pandemic-era low.

Why it matters: America's job market recovery has been on track all along.

Between the lines: Revisions to prior months are often overlooked. Not this month: Upgrades to both August and September were so enormous — fully 366,000 jobs higher than originally reported — that they have definitively reversed the narrative that there was a Delta-induced hiring slump in late summer.

By the numbers: America has now recovered 80% of the jobs lost at the depth of the recession in 2020.

The big picture: Leisure and hospitality added 164,000 jobs last month — but jobs growth was widespread. The disappointment — again — came in public sector education. State and local education shed a combined 65,000 jobs.

Wages are still rising: Average hourly earnings rose another 11 cents an hour in October, to $30.96. That's enough to keep up with inflation.

What to watch: Millions of workers remain on the sidelines — and there wasn't much improvement in pulling them back into the workforce.

The bottom line: "The Fall hiccup is now at best a Fall deep breath," tweeted University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers. 

U.S. economy adds 531,000 jobs in huge hiring rebound

Forecasters expected the economy to add 450,000 jobs.

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

The latest nugget from earnings season: Worker strikes across the U.S. are starting to hit big companies' bottom lines.

Driving the news: Kellogg warned on its Thursday call that annual profits could take a hit due to sustained worker strikes at its cereal plants.

The plants aren't operating at full capacity thanks to the strikes, and to the difficulty finding temporary labor. Those disruptions, combined with input cost inflation, could dampen profits.

Kellogg workers are extending their month-long strike after rejecting the company's most recent pay and benefits offer on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Deere & Co. workers — part of the biggest pandemic-era worker strike, 10,000-strong — are also continuing their work stoppage after rejecting their employer's latest attempt at a deal with the United Auto Workers union.

That deal, which would have poured an additional $3.5 billion into pay and benefits, is Deere's best and final offer, the company said.

State of play: Deere managed to bring a lot more workers on board with its latest proposal. While 90% of workers rejected the company's first offer, 55% voted against the second one. 

The company needs a simple majority to reach a deal with the UAW — and aims to chip away at the holdouts in the days and weeks to come. 

The bottom line: Workers have more power for now, but continued strikes are hurting both sides, with employees losing wages and employers seeing dents in their profits. 

How recent worker strikes are impacting big companies

Worker strikes across the U.S. are starting to hit big companies' bottom lines.

A deal with New York City's largest taxi loan holder will rescue thousands of cab drivers facing financial ruin after being forced to take on crushing debt due to exploitative practices.

Why it matters: New York officials reached the agreement after a two-week hunger strike by members of the city's largest taxi drivers union, who called on the city to expand a debt relief program for drivers.

How we got here: To operate a cab in the city, drivers have to purchase a medallion. But about 20 years ago, some industry leaders began to artificially inflate the price of medallions, which the city regulates, a 2019 New York Times investigation found. 

That meant drivers who wanted to own their cab had to take on increasingly large loans over the years — reaching $1 million at one point — "while lenders pocketed hundred[s] of millions of dollars," per the Times.

After the market crashed in 2014, thousands of drivers faced crushing debt and the loss of their livelihoods. The crisis drove several drivers to die by suicide.

Driving the news: Marblegate, the city's largest taxi loan holder, has agreed to cut back the amount each driver owes, from an average of roughly $500,000 per driver to $170,000, per the Times. The lender will also reduce payments to a maximum of $1,122 per month.

As part of the deal, the city will pay Marblegate $30,000 for each driver and assume responsibility for repaying the loan if a driver ever defaults.

Mayor Bill de Blasio's office said it will work with other lenders to achieve the same terms, "which would effectively amount to the bailout that drivers have sought since the debt crisis jumped into the spotlight in 2018," the Times notes.

"Taxi workers have worked tirelessly to make New York City the most vibrant city in the world, and we refuse to leave them behind," de Blasio said in a statement. 

Worth noting: The 25,000-member New York Taxi Workers Alliance (NYTWA) that staged the hunger strike is mostly comprised of people of color and immigrants. 

What they're saying: "Today marks a new dawn, a new beginning for a workforce that has struggled through so much crisis and loss," NYTWA Executive Director Bhairavi Desai said in a statement.

"Today, we can say owner-drivers have won real debt relief and can begin to get their lives back. Drivers will no longer be at risk of losing their homes, and no longer be held captive to a debt beyond their lifetime," added Desai, who also thanked Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) for facilitating the deal. 

"The city we love had our back and so today we can say, we have won!"

"It's upsetting that it took this much pain" for the city to recognize the workers' needs, but it's also "so powerful and inspiring to see ... these drivers' willingness to stand up for one another and to put their bodies on the line for each other," New York Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou (D), who participated in all 15 days of the hunger strike, told Axios.

The deal shows "we can actually prevent and stop and also help" when predatory lending is at play. "We still need to continue this fight at the state level," she added.

If you or someone you know may be considering suicide, contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-8255 (En Español: 1-888-628-9454; Deaf and Hard of Hearing: 1-800-799-4889) or the Crisis Text Line by texting HOME to 741741.

NYC to expand debt relief for cab drivers after 2-week hunger strike

"Drivers will no longer be at risk of losing their homes, and no longer be held captive to a debt beyond their lifetime."

Photo of crowded protesters holding up signs that say "Debt forgive now!" and "No more suicides!" in an outdoor rally

New York City taxi drivers and their supporters demand debt relief at rally in the second week of their hunger strike outside City Hall. Photo: Spencer Platt via Getty Images

New York City

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

More than half — 56% — of frontline grocery store employees have plans to leave their jobs due to pandemic-induced burnout, according to a new report from the software firm Axonify.

Why it matters: The "Great Resignation" is more pronounced among frontline workers, who bore the brunt of the pandemic's dangers and demands. 

Mass resignations at grocery stores, restaurants and retailers could push those establishments to reduce hours or close for good.

The reasons grocery workers plan to quit include burnout (58%), poor compensation (52%) and lack of appreciation from management or peers (53%), per the survey from Axonify, which provides online training materials for frontline workers.

The bottom line: The pandemic revealed how much we rely on low-wage, frontline workers, but it also exposed the ugly ways in which these essential workers are treated by employers and consumers alike.

Many of those quitting may be set on leaving their jobs and moving to different fields with fewer demands and more flexibility.

If firms want to retain overtaxed workers, they'll have to bump pay and beef up benefits.

Staggering stat: 56% of grocery workers want to quit

The "Great Resignation" is more pronounced among frontline workers.

A worker organizes deli meats at a Save Mart in Porterville, Calif. Photo: Jeremy Hogan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Groceries

Retail

Axios Pro: Deals

Returning to pre-pandemic levels of immigration could help put the U.S. on a path back to its pre-pandemic labor force, easing the staffing shortages that are holding back parts of the economy.

The big picture: The U.S. has 3 million more open jobs now than it did before the pandemic. Companies across the country are struggling to hire enough workers to meet demand. More immigration would help, experts say.

"Immigration to the US has slowed. … And that's exacerbating the labor shortage problem that we have," Joseph Lavorgna, Americas chief economist at Natixis, tells Axios.   

By the numbers: In 2019, just over 1 million people obtained lawful permanent residency in the U.S. That number declined to 707,000 in 2020. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. issued about 4 million nonimmigrant visas last year — half as many as it issued in 2019, and down from over 10 million back in 2016. Some of these visa holders can work in the U.S., and many ultimately go on to receive green cards (all green card holders are eligible to work).

Restoring pre-pandemic immigration levels certainly won’t address the entire labor shortage — but it would make a dent. And for the business owner in need of crucial labor, it would make all the difference in the world.

Where it stands: The U.S. labor force participation rate has only recovered about half of what it lost at the onset of the pandemic. 

For a variety of reasons — early retirements, lack of childcare, people moving to different locales and overall YOLO mentality — Americans are not filling the job market’s record 10 million open positions.

Immigrants who want to come to the U.S. are often willing to take on some of the jobs that Americans don’t want to do. And companies need that right now.

Details: The H-2B visa lottery encapsulates the desperation of business owners. 

There are 66,000 H2-Bs available per year for non-agriculture seasonal workers. It’s an expensive and onerous process for U.S. employers to enter the lottery, said Michael Clemens, director of migration, displacement, and humanitarian policy at the Center for Global Development. 

All these employers must attest that there are no Americans available to do the work. 

And yet, in the lottery that covered April to October of this year, there were 98,000 employers vying for the 33,000 available visas. (The Department of Homeland Security later added another 22,000 visas, due to the high demand).

"An unfilled position is somebody who owns capital, wants to make an investment that is going to add value to the economy and generate employment, and they can't do it," Clemens says. 

Some of the sectors with the highest rates of unfilled positions are those in which immigrants are typically heavily represented, like transportation and hospitality, he adds.

The impact: These unfilled jobs have ripple effects throughout the economy.

For example, filling the missing childcare positions would enable more parents to rejoin the workforce. 

More truck drivers, port and warehouse workers would help ease supply chain bottlenecks, greasing the skids of the entire economy. 

Yet: There’s simply no policy tool to allow for more non-seasonal, non-skilled workers as the economy's needs evolve, Clemens notes. 

The bottom line: "People have this idea that desirable immigrants are nuclear physicists, and Silicon Valley tech entrepreneurs. But Silicon Valley itself runs on immigrant childcare workers, cleaners, security and construction workers. Silicon Valley doesn't exist without them," he adds. 

Immigrants could help fill America's millions of job openings

More immigration wouldn't solve everything, but it would help.

Illustration of two signs on a post, one reading "NO ENTRY" and the second reading "HELP WANTED"

Immigration

Before the pandemic, if you woke up with a runny nose or a tickle in your throat, it was a simple enough decision to stay home and avoid infecting your co-workers. Now, as more Americans work from home, sick days are disappearing.

Why it matters: Working through sickness and fatigue makes it harder for people to recover quickly and completely, prolonging the harm to their health and productivity.

It also leads to an epidemic of "presenteeism" — showing up for work when you're not feeling up to it, and not doing your best job.

The big picture: The lack of definition around sick days has long been a problem for America's workers. 

The problem was exacerbated by the pandemic and the recession — especially for those in frontline, low-wage jobs at e-commerce warehouses and fast food joints who feared they'd lose their jobs if they took sick days.

And the pandemic has muddied sick days for teleworkers too.

What's happening: Remote work means you can't get colleagues sick, which has raised the bar for how sick is sick enough to take a day off. 

Plus, parents who telework may feel less comfortable taking time off to care for sick kids because they feel it would be possible — if stressful — to work from home while tending to their child's needs.

In a survey conducted by OnePoll, two in three Americans say they feel less inclined to take time off for sore throats and stuffy noses when working from home. And 70% say they've worked while sick during the pandemic.

On top of that, half of respondents in the same survey say COVID-19 has made other illnesses seem "minor" in comparison.

The stakes: "Presenteeism" costs the U.S. $226 billion in lost productivity per year, according to the American Productivity Audit. Look for that number to rise as working while sick becomes more common.

Logging on while sick can slow down workers' recovery and make an illness drag on longer than it would have.

All this contributes to the U.S.' far-reaching burnout problem that's leading workers to quit their jobs in every state and industry.

Companies can fix this problem by actively encouraging workers to take paid vacation and sick time, says Dan Schawbel, an author and managing partner at the human resources research and consulting firm Workplace Intelligence.

"It's part policy, and it's part cultural," he says. "And people don't really talk about the cultural part."

Firms can't just dole out paid sick time and expect employees to feel comfortable taking it, he says. It's up to executives and managers to push employees to use that time — and to publicize when they take it themselves to set an example.

The bottom line: Managing remote workforces is starkly different from managing in-person ones. And companies will have to be creative about everything from time off to meeting structures to make it work.

Go deeper: Company-wide vacations could be the future of paid time off

Sick days disappear in the remote working world

Remote work has raised the bar for how sick is sick enough to take a day off.

Illustration of a thermometer that reads "Nope"

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